Have a nest egg, need an investment strategy

[C999]

Hi,
I just started looking at FI and ER information a few weeks ago when I got fed up with worrying about the deteriorating situation at my job. I have been working in software for 25 years, at current position for 12. There are continual layoffs at my company, my product got canceled, and I no longer feel secure. At my age (49) and salary ($160k) I don't think I could easily find another position without a long search, relocation, or both. Relocation is not an appealing option since my house is paid for and my fiance is tied to his job in this area with a plan to work another 5-10 years.

Psychologically I'm just fed up with the stress and long hours, and the idea of retiring or semi-retiring and living frugally is so much more appealing than starting over in a new job. I wish I could retire now, but due to health insurance I probably have to wait until at least 2014 when the pre-existing condition discrimination is supposed to end (or until I get laid off, whichever comes first.)

I have a $660k nest egg and really need some help figuring out an investment strategy. I've been lazy about this and scared to invest, so have a lot of money that has been sitting un-invested since about 2001. I just started moving into Vanguard, so far with a mix of 50% total stock market index and 50% bonds, split between total bond market index and inflation-protected securities (I think it's a TIPS fund). I am already anxious about whether I should have moved lump sums like I did or done dollar cost averaging, whether I should use a different strategy, and whether to pick different allocations for the different pots of money (IRA, Roth, taxable). I'm pretty uninformed about investing except for having read a few articles about couch potato strategy and low cost index investing. This is what I have currently:

$96k employer 401k, S&P 500 index (limited options in this plan)
$58k Rollover IRA, 50 % Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, 50% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
$17k Roth, also 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market, 50% Vanguard Total Bond Market
$80k taxable, 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market, 50% Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities
$162k old employer 401k, I plan to move this to Rollover IRA, it's now 67% bond fund, 31% tech stock fund
$67k old self-employed 401k, un-invested, I plan to move this to Rollover IRA
$184k taxable, un-invested.

How do I start learning about this stuff and gain some confidence? I was considering reading the Four Pillars of Investing, and All About Asset Allocation. I also have some old Motley Fool books that I bought and didn't read: the Motley Fool Investment Guide, The Million Dollar Portfolio. I'm also going through the FAQ's and old threads here. Somehow I was hoping to find a big sticky in the FIRE and Money section that would tell me exactly what to do, but I guess it's not that simple, huh?

Any pointers for general learning or my particular situation would be appreciated.

 

[Keim]

The Four Pillars of Investing is a good start. I also liked The Bogleheads Guide to Investing and Bogle on Mutual Funds, as well as frequenting www.bogleheads.org.

 

[jclarksnakes]

What strikes me as more important than your investment strategy is your overall strategy. You can pretty easily learn about investing and come up with the asset allocation that is right for you. What you seem to not be prepared for is the frugal lifestyle you say you are thinking about. It is good that at age 49 you are thinking about retirement and you do have more saved than many people your age. However the size of your nest age in relation to your salary indicates that you have been spending a lot for a long time. Shifting to a frugal lifestyle is not so easy for someone who has been living on much of a big income for some time. Yes, I do see that you are in Southern California where everything is expensive. However, I think you need to put as much or more effort into cutting expenses as you do into learning about investments. This will have the dual benefits of getting you more ready to truly live frugally in case you do get laid off and it will also add money to your nest egg. Build the nest egg up much larger and also learn to live on much less and then you may be ready for that possible layoff or to even choose to semi-retire or retire completely. You may find that truly frugal living is not for you and decide that you need to work longer to build your savings up enough to support a lifestyle more like what you are used to.

 

[C999]

What strikes me as more important than your investment strategy is your overall strategy. You can pretty easily learn about investing and come up with the asset allocation that is right for you. What you seem to not be prepared for is the frugal lifestyle you say you are thinking about. It is good that at age 49 you are thinking about retirement and you do have more saved than many people your age. However the size of your nest age in relation to your salary indicates that you have been spending a lot for a long time.

Hi,
I agree, looking at how much I've earned it seems I should have a lot more saved by now. I am cutting expenses as well. My target is to live on $2k/month. Since paying off my house, my fixed expenses (property tax, insurance, utilities, services) are running about $980/month, so I think it is do-able. I've been downsizing and simplifying this past year and have made a lot of reductions. I just didn't enumerate all that stuff here since it seems more straightforward to me than investments! I can also reduce expenses and up the nest egg by a good chunk by moving out of So Cal when my fiance is ready to go. I have about $400k tied up in the house now.

 

[MichaelB]

C999, welcome to the forum. While there is no thread that will tell you what to do or answer all your questions, you may find the FAQ section helpful. You might also want to spend a few minutes with FIRECalc to help you answer the question "how much do I need?". Good luck

 

[frank]

c999: what is the return on what you have now as far as %? the way your money is invested is very close to vanguard's own suggestion on how to invest at the age of 65.

 

[jclarksnakes]

Hi,
I agree, looking at how much I've earned it seems I should have a lot more saved by now. I am cutting expenses as well. My target is to live on $2k/month. Since paying off my house, my fixed expenses (property tax, insurance, utilities, services) are running about $980/month, so I think it is do-able. I've been downsizing and simplifying this past year and have made a lot of reductions. I just didn't enumerate all that stuff here since it seems more straightforward to me than investments! I can also reduce expenses and up the nest egg by a good chunk by moving out of So Cal when my fiance is ready to go. I have about $400k tied up in the house now.

Great to see that you have already made the tough sacrifices. I would think that if you were to sell the house and move to a lower cost of living area you might be able to make early retirement work. The big questions to consider in that scenario would be healthcare insurance and inflation.

 

[C999]

C999, welcome to the forum. While there is no thread that will tell you what to do or answer all your questions, you may find the FAQ section helpful. You might also want to spend a few minutes with FIRECalc to help you answer the question "how much do I need?". Good luck

Thanks, FIRECalc is a very enlightening tool. It underscored the point that spending level is a bigger factor than asset allocation. I wasn't seeing a big difference in results between 50% stocks, 75% stocks, or 100% stocks, but boy was there a difference in spending $24000 a year versus $36000!

 

[REWahoo]

I wasn't seeing a big difference in results between 50% stocks, 75% stocks, or 100% stocks, but boy was there a difference in spending $24000 a year versus $36000!

+1

This FIRECalc chart shows the 30 year survivability of a portfolio doesn't change much once your equity allocation reaches 35-40%.

 

[Midpack]

How do I start learning about this stuff and gain some confidence? I was considering reading the Four Pillars of Investing, and All About Asset Allocation. I also have some old Motley Fool books that I bought and didn't read: the Motley Fool Investment Guide, The Million Dollar Portfolio. I'm also going through the FAQ's and old threads here. Somehow I was hoping to find a big sticky in the FIRE and Money section that would tell me exactly what to do, but I guess it's not that simple, huh?

Any pointers for general learning or my particular situation would be appreciated.

Welcome to the forum, I find this forum to be a great resource. I hope you do as well.

If it was as simple as a sticky thread, we'd all be rich and secure. Learning what to do is the easy part, it's having the discipline to act and more importantly not act (when markets head south) is where most investors get into trouble. It's only by reading enough to sort the wheat from the chaff yourself, that you can truly have the discipline to 'not lose your head when all around you are.' Learning when to do nothing may be the hardest lesson, it seems counterintuitive to most people. Disciplined rebalancing is another lesson that people struggle with.

FIRECALC will get you in the ballpark. Scott Burns Couch Potato is very sound. All About Asset Allocation is great, but it's not the place to start IMO. The Four Pillars of Investing, any of Jack Bogle's books or Bogleheads on Investing are excellent choices, among others. These resources describe the most successful strategy for 95% of investors. Unfortunately, too many people think they can become one of the top 5% if only someone would teach them 'the trick.' That would be outsmarting the best of the best on Wall St, full time professionals - highly unlikely.

Start reading. You can stop when all your questions have been answered to your satisfaction...IOW, you can always learn more.

 

[mh]

Hi,
Any pointers for general learning or my particular situation would be appreciated.

the bogleheads web site has some great overview links re: retirement investing. As mentioned before the book is also great.

My advice would be to shoot for saving 100k each year for (at least) two years. If you can do that you will proven to yourself that you can live at a income level in the ballpark range of what 650k + 200k + house downsize + 2 yrs of gains on savings can provide. Yeah 100k is a pretty high bar to set but you should be eligible for 401k catchup ? so that should be 20k+ untaxed right off the bat. If I couldn't get close to that 100k goal the first year I'd re-assess my time table.

Re: the job situation. I was in a situation similar to yours (i was 49 then, 52 now) and just decided to take whatever joy I could find in my job and not worry about the rest. If I stuck to my savings spending plan. I'd have more options to choose regardless of if / when they hired three people in Romania to take my place. with that attitude things were better for me those last two years.

 

[PennStateCLJ]

Hi,
Relocation is not an appealing option since my house is paid for and my fiance is tied to his job in this area with a plan to work another 5-10 years.

I wish I could retire now, but due to health insurance I probably have to wait until at least 2014 when the pre-existing condition discrimination is supposed to end (or until I get laid off, whichever comes first.)

I have a $660k nest egg and really need some help figuring out an investment strategy. I just started moving into Vanguard, so far with a mix of 50% total stock market index and 50% bonds, split between total bond market index and inflation-protected securities (I think it's a TIPS fund). I am already anxious about whether I should have moved lump sums like I did or done dollar cost averaging, whether I should use a different strategy, and whether to pick different allocations for the different pots of money (IRA, Roth, taxable). I'm pretty uninformed about investing except for having read a few articles about couch potato strategy and low cost index investing. This is what I have currently:

$96k employer 401k, S&P 500 index (limited options in this plan)
$58k Rollover IRA, 50 % Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, 50% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
$17k Roth, also 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market, 50% Vanguard Total Bond Market
$80k taxable, 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market, 50% Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities
$162k old employer 401k, I plan to move this to Rollover IRA, it's now 67% bond fund, 31% tech stock fund
$67k old self-employed 401k, un-invested, I plan to move this to Rollover IRA
$184k taxable, un-invested.



How do I start learning about this stuff and gain some confidence? I was considering reading the Four Pillars of Investing, and All About Asset Allocation. I also have some old Motley Fool books that I bought and didn't read: the Motley Fool Investment Guide, The Million Dollar Portfolio. I'm also going through the FAQ's and old threads here. Somehow I was hoping to find a big sticky in the FIRE and Money section that would tell me exactly what to do, but I guess it's not that simple, huh?

Any pointers for general learning or my particular situation would be appreciated.

I suggest you frequent Bogleheads. Start with these videos:
Video:Bogleheads® investment philosophy - Bogleheads

I've read All About Asset Allocation by Ferri, it's a good one.
The Bogleheads Guide to Investing by Larimore et al is another. If you post on Bogleheads.org. the authors of those books can literally comment on your plan for FREE. Name other investing authors that do that.

In terms of your current portfolio and assets you have some tax-ineffeciencies. TIPS should not be in a taxable account as they generate dividends. Principles of Tax-Efficient Fund Placement - Bogleheads

If you can roll everything over to one custodian such as Vanguard you can do a 40/60 stock bond portfolio in a very tax-efficient manner.
You have $264k in taxable accounts which accounts for 40% of your total portfolio. Total stock market index and total international index would be great for these holdings and are the most tax efficient.
That leaves 60% in tax advantaged for bond holdings. I'd put you at a 40/60 stock/bonds split because of your earlier reluctance to get into the market. For bonds it would be pretty easy to split half into TIPS and half into the Total Bond Market Index. Many use "age in bonds" but this portfolio will be more conservative based on the information you gave.
In your now one IRA (everything rolled over) and current 401k you'll hold all of your bonds instead of in a taxable account. Think of your portfolio across all of your accounts. You don't need to re-create the same asset allocation or by the same funds in each account. If you can rollover all the IRAs and old 401ks to one account it will make your life much easier. I'd recommend Vanguard. Also, if you post on bogleheads.org with your entire situation others may be able to offer more insight.

Let me know if you need clarification on any of the above.

 

[GrayHare]

I think you're modestly downplaying what you've already accomplished. Based on your intro, I was expecting you to say you had all your money in cash doing nothing.

IMO your investments are reasonable though somewhat overweight bonds for your age. For the basics without a bunch of reading, the Motley Fool has a decent 13-step retirement summary starting at http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/retirement-step-1-shall-we-quit.aspx

 

[C999]

I think you're modestly downplaying what you've already accomplished. Based on your intro, I was expecting you to say you had all your money in cash doing nothing.

IMO your investments are reasonable though somewhat overweight bonds for your age. For the basics without a bunch of reading, the Motley Fool has a decent 13-step retirement summary starting at Retirement Step 1: Shall We Quit?

Well, er, I just moved the funds into Vanguard, so prior to that I did have about $400k in cash doing nothing My balance had really piled up the last few years since my spending had flatlined and salary went up. Thanks for the tips!

 

[C999]

the bogleheads web site has some great overview links re: retirement investing. As mentioned before the book is also great.

My advice would be to shoot for saving 100k each year for (at least) two years. If you can do that you will proven to yourself that you can live at a income level in the ballpark range of what 650k + 200k + house downsize + 2 yrs of gains on savings can provide. Yeah 100k is a pretty high bar to set but you should be eligible for 401k catchup ? so that should be 20k+ untaxed right off the bat. If I couldn't get close to that 100k goal the first year I'd re-assess my time table.

Re: the job situation. I was in a situation similar to yours (i was 49 then, 52 now) and just decided to take whatever joy I could find in my job and not worry about the rest. If I stuck to my savings spending plan. I'd have more options to choose regardless of if / when they hired three people in Romania to take my place. with that attitude things were better for me those last two years.

That's an aggressive savings goal considering my tax bracket, but I'm going to look into it. I'd sure love to see my stash go up that much that quickly!

Thanks for the tip about 401k catchup contribution. I didn't even know about that until now. I'll have to check if my company's plan even has it. I actually got a big chunk of my 401k contribution returned last year due to their plan having too many highly compensated employees. That cost me at least a couple thousand in taxes. But if I'm reading the catchup rules correctly, the catchup contribution should not get rejected even if the HCE limit kicks in again.

I'll take your words to heart about changing my attitude towards the job. I've been kind of an over-stressed, over-working idiot up til now and just waking up from that. I think seeing it as a vehicle to fund the next phase of my life will help greatly.

 

[C999]

Welcome to the forum, I find this forum to be a great resource. I hope you do as well.

If it was as simple as a sticky thread, we'd all be rich and secure. Learning what to do is the easy part, it's having the discipline to act and more importantly not act (when markets head south) is where most investors get into trouble. It's only by reading enough to sort the wheat from the chaff yourself, that you can truly have the discipline to 'not lose your head when all around you are.' Learning when to do nothing may be the hardest lesson, it seems counterintuitive to most people. Disciplined rebalancing is another lesson that people struggle with.

FIRECALC will get you in the ballpark. Scott Burns Couch Potato is very sound. All About Asset Allocation is great, but it's not the place to start IMO. The Four Pillars of Investing, any of Jack Bogle's books or Bogleheads on Investing are excellent choices, among others. These resources describe the most successful strategy for 95% of investors. Unfortunately, too many people think they can become one of the top 5% if only someone would teach them 'the trick.' That would be outsmarting the best of the best on Wall St, full time professionals - highly unlikely.

Start reading. You can stop when all your questions have been answered to your satisfaction...IOW, you can always learn more.

Thanks for the welcome and recommendations. I don't believe there's any beat-the-markets trick either. I lost quite a bit chasing "hot funds" in the late 90's, which is part of what drove me to un-invest for so long. Now I just want to do some flavor of couch potato. That way my natural laziness can work to my advantage

 

[C999]

I suggest you frequent Bogleheads. Start with these videos:
Video:Bogleheads® investment philosophy - Bogleheads

I've read All About Asset Allocation by Ferri, it's a good one.
The Bogleheads Guide to Investing by Larimore et al is another. If you post on Bogleheads.org. the authors of those books can literally comment on your plan for FREE. Name other investing authors that do that.

In terms of your current portfolio and assets you have some tax-ineffeciencies. TIPS should not be in a taxable account as they generate dividends. Principles of Tax-Efficient Fund Placement - Bogleheads

If you can roll everything over to one custodian such as Vanguard you can do a 40/60 stock bond portfolio in a very tax-efficient manner.
You have $264k in taxable accounts which accounts for 40% of your total portfolio. Total stock market index and total international index would be great for these holdings and are the most tax efficient.
That leaves 60% in tax advantaged for bond holdings. I'd put you at a 40/60 stock/bonds split because of your earlier reluctance to get into the market. For bonds it would be pretty easy to split half into TIPS and half into the Total Bond Market Index. Many use "age in bonds" but this portfolio will be more conservative based on the information you gave.
In your now one IRA (everything rolled over) and current 401k you'll hold all of your bonds instead of in a taxable account. Think of your portfolio across all of your accounts. You don't need to re-create the same asset allocation or by the same funds in each account. If you can rollover all the IRAs and old 401ks to one account it will make your life much easier. I'd recommend Vanguard. Also, if you post on bogleheads.org with your entire situation others may be able to offer more insight.

Let me know if you need clarification on any of the above.

Thanks a bunch! I'll definitely look at moving the bonds from taxable to non-taxable accounts. I can get everything but my current employer's 401k into Vanguard.

 

[WestLake]

I almost retired at 50 (magic number syndrome) but I'm glad I didn't. Just turned 54 and was able to almost triple my 401K and Roth by going full-tilt on stocks the last few years. However my plan is to live off rental income. Now shooting for very late age 55 in yes, 2014.

My opinion is that you should delay and save more of that nice paycheck while waiting for the insurance questions to be answered.

 

[C999]

I almost retired at 50 (magic number syndrome) but I'm glad I didn't. Just turned 54 and was able to almost triple my 401K and Roth by going full-tilt on stocks the last few years. However my plan is to live off rental income. Now shooting for very late age 55 in yes, 2014.

My opinion is that you should delay and save more of that nice paycheck while waiting for the insurance questions to be answered.

Hey, congratulations, sounds like you made a good choice. 2014 is just around the corner!

 

[pb4uski]

Welcome. I think you've received a lot of good advice.

I would suggest that you also look into taking advantage of Vanguard's financial planning services. In many cases the service is free to Vanguard customers with significant investable funds.

Generally you want to look to your AA across all of your taxable, tax-deferred and non-taxable accounts. Since you are a Vanguard customer, their Portfolio Watch is a convenient way of doing that once you have entered information for your non-Vanguard accounts, Portfolio Watch will look at your AA, tax efficiency, costs, historical returns and other attributes of your investments across all your accounts. The Financial Engines program available to many Vanguard customers looks at the income producing potential of your portfolio and is quite useful IMO.

 

[mh]

That's an aggressive savings goal considering my tax bracket, but I'm going to look into it. I'd sure love to see my stash go up that much that quickly!

Thanks for the tip about 401k catchup contribution. I didn't even know about that until now. I'll have to check if my company's plan even has it. I actually got a big chunk of my 401k contribution returned last year due to their plan having too many highly compensated employees. That cost me at least a couple thousand in taxes. But if I'm reading the catchup rules correctly, the catchup contribution should not get rejected even if the HCE limit kicks in again.

I'll take your words to heart about changing my attitude towards the job. I've been kind of an over-stressed, over-working idiot up til now and just waking up from that. I think seeing it as a vehicle to fund the next phase of my life will help greatly.

Yeah I may have gone a bit overboard on the 100k

 

[web_diva]

If a "permanent portfolio" interests you that supports a 4% draw down in retirement, suggest considering "Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio". Lots of information on it can be found at:

www.gyroscopicinvesting.com
and
www.crawlingroad.com