High Paying Job - Hoping to Retire in 2016

[Texan1636]

Hello and thanks for any advice. I've been monitoring these forums since late last year and have occasionally posted on BH's since 2009, but I thought I might as well lay out my current situation and plans and get any feedback/reality checks from this informed group.

I am about 50 and working in a very high-paying (but extremely stressful) job. I'm beginning to get signals from my employer that my compensation may start moving down to allow for increases for some of the slightly younger guys who have been nipping at my heals. That won't be pleasant, as a person's comp level in my organization is THE badge that determines the level of respect a person gets from others in the organization. I've seen people in similar positions in my organization get marginalized very quickly when they start getting comp decreases.

I had expected to work about another 5 years, but I've gotten to the point where I feel my head will explode if I have can't hang it up by the end of 2016. "Cutting back" somewhat is really no option - this job is all or nothing - and the "all" means about 60-65 stressful hours most weeks and lots of travel. I feel like we have worked so hard for what feels like so long (my wife hasn't worked outside the home, but she has borne the brunt of running a household and having to take care of most burdens by herself). However, there's no going back to anything like these comp levels if I needed to return to work after I quit - my clients will be immediately taken over by others.

If the markets are relatively flat between now and the end of 2016 and we continue current level of savings/investments for the next two years, this would mean we would have around $8 million in investment assets (about $1mm in tax deferred and the rest in taxable). We are 56% equities (tilted a bit to small/value), 4% REITS and 40% fixed (mainly short and intermediate term high quality). House paid off and no debt.

Our ideal budget would be about $320k first year (4%), out of which we would pay taxes (but income taxes should be pretty low for me in early years), pay all expenses and make desired charitable contributions. About $80k of that is for 4 high end vacations (we have put off much desired travel due to my job requirements), which obviously could be cut if needed, and we believe that we could cut back another $35k on other matters if needed without feeling our lifestyle was taking much of a hit.

I have a defined benefit pension in which I am fully vested that will begin paying $140k per year (no inflation adjustment) at age 65, for the life of both my spouse and me. I don't really know how to think about this pension when thinking of overall risk of running out of money (or having much less to spend than hoped) - obviously, it doesn't kick in for a while and we need to live on our existing portfolio until then.

We have one child in graduate school, and the amounts above don't include funds to finish funding grad school (which we've held separate).

Yes, it is a bit embarrassing that we want to spend so much money, but I would like to splurge some in retirement after so many years of hard work by me and other sacrifices by my wife. I also understand that many say you should take less than 4% if you are retiring in your early 50's, but I hope that the flexibility we can have in our spending can go a long way toward making this jump a bit less risky. My current thinking is to start out with a combination of percentage of current balance and inflation adjusted withdrawals. Take 4% the first year. In subsequent years, divide the withdrawal amount calculation into two parts - take the original 2% and adjust that for inflation each year, and also take 2% of whatever the value of the porfolio is that year. This would be a buffer against huge swings in spending in early years. We could assess this after a few years and see how it is going. And then, there is the pension at 65 and social security at some point.

Apologies for the long message. Thanks in advance.

 

[Looking4Ward]

I thought I might as well lay out my current situation and plans and get any feedback/reality checks from this informed group.....

It seems that you are so close (only 15 months away?) from your final objective that if you decided to pull the trigger now, the benefits could far outweigh the prospect of having to deal with the situation for another 15 months.

I'd quit tomorrow.

 

[MooreBonds]

A few random comments:

1) Charitable contributions - Depending on what your anticipated tax bracket is now vs at retirement, and depending on what your anticipated $ of charitable contributions are, you should look into a Donor Advised Fund.

Basically, it's a non-profit holding company that holds and invests your funds as you "recommend". I have one with Vanguard Charitable, as do a few others in the forum, while other ER forum members have good experiences with the charitable versions of T Rowe Price, Schwab and Fidelity.

Legally, you give up control of the money when you contribute it in the current year. However, the charitable fund will do whatever you "recommend" (legally, you're just giving them 'recommendations', not legally-binding orders, in order to legally separate your control and allow you to take the deduction in the year you donate to the fund). So you can contribute in a current year high tax rate year, get the Schedule A tax deduction, and invest it (with earnings being tax-free!) however you wish, according to their investment options. The only requirement is that the entire charitable fund (with everyone's money pooled together) must donate 5% each year to meet IRS requirements. AFAIK, nearly all charitable funds distribute far in excess of this requirement. At Vanguard, they require you to make at least one 'donation recommendation' to a 501(c)(3) at least once every 7 years, so it's something that you can let grow in the current years, and then donate to charities down the road.

There are some expenses with this, as most charge about 0.60%+ for your basic fees, but nearly all have good, low-expense ratio investment options. You can also donate appreciated stock or mutual funds directly in lieu of cash. Just watch their timelines in December for cut-off dates on contributions of cash or stock.

2) Spouse on trips? - I don't know your travel schedule, but you mention you want to travel when retired. To help ease the stress of your job and traveling now, can your spouse tag along for part of the trip (flying in either with you, or at some other time)? Can you extend your trips to fly in a few days early (or stay a few days later) and pay for your own hotel when you're not there for business? Same airfare cost to the company, but you get free airfare to visit a city (if your destinations are someplace you'd like to visit with your wife), and your wife gets free hotel room for your business part of the trip. And I imagine you hopefully have a lot of points racked up with various hotel rewards programs to get cheap/free hotel rooms?

3) Specific budget for retirement - Can you work up a more defined/exact proposed budget for retirement? You mention some high-end vacations each year. can your spouse do a little research while you're at work to actually price up some of those vacations? You might find out that when retired, you have flexibility and time on your side to get some good deals, and you might only need $60k for those awesome trips. Same for other things. You might realize you don't need as large of a budget as you expect.

4) Effect of pension - your pension is roughly 40% of your proposed budget, but it's 13 years down the road after a 2016 retirement date. Assuming 3% inflation, that whittles down the value of the pension to about $90k in today's dollars - still a respectable 25% of your budget. Which would mean you would only need to withdraw 3% from your portfolio at 65 instead of 4% today.

Some might be fine with that. My only caveat would be dependent upon interest rates. Many people don't realize that the only times we've ever had interest rates this low in the past, stocks were yielding 3%-4%+! So even though your bond allocation in the past was earning squat, your equities were still earning a good amount to help offset that.

With stocks yielding just 1.7% +/- with zero interest rates today, that isn't earning you nearly as much as your historical portfolio was in the past. So, I'd be a little hesitant to say jump in with both feet for a 2016 retirement - unless rates finally start rising to a respectable level in the next 2-3 years. If they are still in the low single digits several years from now, your bond allocation would make me a little concerned about long-term survivability - but with 4% WR now and 3% WR at 65, I wouldn't be as nervous.

 

[Texan1636]

It seems that you are so close (only 15 months away?) from your final objective that if you decided to pull the trigger now, the benefits could far outweigh the prospect of having to deal with the situation for another 15 months.

I'd quit tomorrow.

Thanks, Looking4Ward. Unfortunately, it's more than 15 months because I'm looking at the end of 2016. We're hoping to be able to save/invest abour $500k during each of 2015 and 2016. Assuming no real growth on porfolio during that two year period, that would take us to about the assumed $8mm number. Of course, the hope would be that there is growth during that time. This also means, however, that if I pulled the trigger now, it would be with about $7mm, rather than $8mm, which would be an initial withdrawal rate of more than 4.5% if we took out $320k the first year. I think I would be uncomfortable deciding to retire at that level, even with the knowledge that we have a considerable amount of flexibility in our spending.

 

[longranger]

I agree with MooreBonds point 3. Lay out a detailed budget. You may have enough painless fat to trim to make immediate FIRE a no brainer. 2 plus years living in misery can take quite a toll.

 

[eta2020]

With invest able assets of 7 million i would go for it now unless you love your job.

You will gain time whose value goes up as you age.

One way or another you will not be living on a street since huge pension plus SS is waiting for you. Can you give us a hint what line of work is so financially stressful/rewarding?

 

[Texan1636]

With invest able assets of 7 million i would go for it now unless you love your job.

You will gain time whose value goes up as you age.

One way or another you will not be living on a street since huge pension plus SS is waiting for you. Can you give us a hint what line of work is so financially stressful/rewarding?

It's a high-stakes law practice focused on a particular type of sophisticated corporate client. Quite a bit of competition for a limited number of clients.

 

[Looking4Ward]

Sounds like the difference between pulling the trigger now and working thru the end of 2016 is $40k a year (4% of $7M versus 4% of $8M).

You also indicated there may be downward pressure on your earnings during that period of time which equals additional stress.

For the 12.5% difference it would make in such a huge annual budget, I still think I'd look for ways to slightly reduce my expenditures each year and begin enjoying myself immediately.

One of the phenomena I came to understand in planning "relief" activities while under stress at w*rk was that I tended to overestimate just how much would be required to render those activities enjoyable. Once the stress was removed, I realized that it didn't take near as much extravagance to provide a high level of satisfaction.

 

[eta2020]

It's a high-stakes law practice focused on a particular type of sophisticated corporate client. Quite a bit of competition for a limited number of clients.

We are similar age. I had done very well though not as good as you but my job is not very stressful so I plan to work till 55.

Most of the nice things in life don't cost much money. If I were you I would cut my spending to 200k-250k and go and enjoy life. You don't know how many healthy years are in front of you.....with health gone those inexpensiveness nice things are to some extend gone.....

In any case best of luck to you.

 

[JoeWras]

+1 on donor advised funds. We have ours set up on Vanguard.

Also kudos to you to mention charitable contributions as part of your plan. We're in the minority here. To me, LBYM doesn't mean cutting out charity.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[FlaGator]

You've done incredibly well and should be proud of what you have accomplished.

To the question at hand - what would your decision be if your wife were diagnosed with a terminal illness? Keep working? Cut it off and say you could figure how to live on $7 million for the rest of your life? Things happen that can't be predicted and you really don't want to ponder.

Make sure you understand what the source of your anxiety is. Realizing you're not the fastest horse in the stable isn't fun, but you're still getting fed better than the average plow horse.......

 

[Lagniappe]

Texan, My read of your intro suggests that you live a pretty nice life based on a great income, and you are very close to being able to sustain that level of spending indefinitely. Hanging on for a couple of years of additional returns, even if they may not be as high as you have become accustomed to, combined with potential market returns can have you set forever.

Have you considered the feeling of freedom that may come when you realize that you don't need $320K to live on, but can have just as great a life with $250K or even $200K? Even with exceptionally high income potential, realizing that you don't have to hang on to the high stress job, and that you and your family will be fine and happy with a few adjustments around the edges, might be just enough for you to be all-in at the job, without the stress that can typically go along with such a role.

 

[clifp]

One thing to consider is that with $7 million in liquid assets and probably $1 million and house and other possession is you are rapidly approaching the $10 million level where estate taxes are factor. Obviously you can and probably will donate some of your estate to charities.

Still remember that the most common outcome of withdrawing 4% a year is that you die with a pile of money, I threw in some modest assumption about social security left spending at $320K on average you die with $16 million in today's dollars. Charitable giving is great but, you do have to ask yourself is killing yourself for more than 2 year even remotely worth it for a either for a charity or Uncle Sam.

 

[2B]

Welcome fellow Texan. It's good to come out from the lurking shadows. You may find you become addicted to posting.

You already know you are loaded. Even if you walked out of your firm today you would be able to live the good life. Hanging in there another year will give you enough money to......live the good life.

Quite honestly, you are a classic case of the OMY-er (One More Year). You are playing "what-if" and "things are terrible now" amongst other games to justify your fears. That leads you to deciding you need to work "more." How much more will depend on when the dam bursts which will change everything unless you decide what you really want to do.

As a classic OMY-er and still employed, I believe I speak with authority although my job is very low stress. It's the commute I'm getting sick of doing. I make a pile of money doing what I do but I am sure it isn't anywhere near what you make. I have a pile of money but it definitely isn't as big as your pile. I will say my desired travel budget is pretty close to yours. Unfortunately, I can't get my DW to travel that much. You may have the same problem.

My point.... You need to realize things change. You can't cover every contingency. Your life style could be adjusted and you'd still be living large by almost everyone's description. You probably won't need as much to live on in retirement as you think. If nothing else, the amount you won't spend on suits would stagger most of our imaginations.

And.....Continue to be employed if that is what you want to do. You have it made financially. I don't think you are going to find anyone here that says you can't retire now. The risks you see in front of you are vapors.

Finally, I use the Fidelity Charitable Trust. The big differences I saw was that you can make an initial contribution of as little as $5,000 and individual donations as low as $50 with FCT. Vanguard Charitable Trust requires $20,000 to open an account and $250 minimum donations. DW and I used to make donations below $250 to various local charities when we wrote the actual checks ourselves and we've continued these donations through FCT. I didn't want to get stuck with a $250 minimum at VCT. You may not care about that minimum.

 

[Totoro]

I'd suggest separating your expenses in three buckets.

You have permanent lifestyle requirements under current conditions: That's 320k - 80k - 35k right? = 205k

At 205k you have 34 years funded, or inversely a withdrawal rate of 3%. Good start. BH will approve.

Next, you have "upgraded lifestyle": 35k. If you want that funded for the next 30 years, you need another million (if you have the inflation adjustment).

By that time, statistically speaking, either you or your wife will likely be dead. Keep that in mind too when deciding how long you'll expect to keep up that extra spend level. In addition, you'll have your pension and SS after 15 years which more than likely will be worth at least 35k per annum in today's money. Probably 500k is enough to finance your upgraded lifestyle come to think of it.

Lastly, you'll have splurge vacations. You won't do that forever either, so consider not thinking about this in terms of annual budget, but a fixed amount.

Say another million just to spend on luxury travel in the next ten years. That's money you don't have (yet), but can acquire in 2015 and 2016.

Put differently: The only reason you have to work right now from a financial perspective is to fund your luxury vacations.

Since you save 50k per month (roughly) you save up the equivalent of 1 year of luxury vacations every two months.

So the question you'll have to ask yourself every two months from now on is: Do I want to work two more months so I can afford a year of luxury vacation extra?

 

[Texan1636]

All, I appreciate the perspectives very much. There is much to think about, here!

Texan

 

[wingfooted]

Texan

I will be an outlier opinion and state that your plan looks realistic to me. It is common on this board that high NW individuals are looked at as 'crazy people' because they could of retired a couple of million ago. As you state - there is no going back after you announce retirement and obviously you think that you can handle the wear and tear another 28 months (end of 2016).

With any kind of decent market returns over the next two or three years , you even have the chance to catapult yourself into being 'rich' (>$10MM net worth).


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[MooreBonds]

I will be an outlier opinion and state that your plan looks realistic to me. It is common on this board that high NW individuals are looked at as 'crazy people' because they could of retired a couple of million ago. As you state - there is no going back after you announce retirement and obviously you think that you can handle the wear and tear another 28 months (end of 2016).

With any kind of decent market returns over the next two or three years , you even have the chance to catapult yourself into being 'rich' (>$10MM net worth).

The problem with those trains of thought is that if people are truly given a chance to roll the die and see if they crap out or not, it's just a one-time deal (especially in the case of the OP and never having a job opportunity like this again). We don't have the luxury of being like the grim reaper in Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure and keep changing the rules to "best 2 out of 3.....best 3 out of 5.....best 5 out of 9".

Bill and Ted Beat the Grim reaper at Twister - YouTube


It would be up to the OP to evaluate the decision which they would rather have:

A) Retire now and roll the dice, possibly living with the stress EVERY DAY if the portfolio stagnates or doesn't perform as hoped, wondering if it will ever grow like they hoped, or wondering if they will only be able to have just 1 or 2 years of $80k travel before slashing down to almost nothing, and having to look in the mirror down the road saying "if only I stuck around for just 2 more years, I would have been virtually guaranteed to have been set and enjoy a lot more fun for years and years"

B) Work more, put up with some stress now, but then long-term have an almost assured time of LOTS more fun and pleasure with vastly upgraded lifestyle for pretty much the rest of your life.

It's so easy to look at a fork in the road and saying "sure, I'll retire and roll the dice with a 4%+ WR now, in the midst of never-before-experienced combination of zero interest rates with sub-2% stock dividend yields and anemic global conditions, and odds-are, it'll come out fine."

Don't forget to envision the stress you might possibly put yourself under (as well as possibly stress from your wife!!!) if you retire now and then have to live with the daily stress of a portfolio not performing as hoped! The stress from that could very well last DECADES - and be a possibly constant, 24/7 feeling (not something you can just leave at the office after-hours or on the weekends), and possibly be much worse than just working 2 more years of a 50 hour a week job. Of course, the issue is that you would be 'guaranteed' more stress for 2 years of sticking around, versus the possible constant stress for many more years if the portfolio doesn't perform.

We obviously don't know what will happen, and you very well could turn out fine by pulling the plug now - but don't forget to picture yourself 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years from now, and ask yourself if you could talk with your future you, do you think your "future you" would be more glad if you took the plunge and retired now, or would be more happy down the road if you stuck it out just 2 more years or so?

(and don't forget the possibilities of ways to reduce your stress now, like taking the wife along on business trips to explore different areas partly on the company's dime).

 

[robertf57]

OP,

I think there is an alternative to consider. You say you could never find a position like the one you have now and I won't dispute that. However, you don't have to! The Delta you need could be made up by VERY partime work advising a small number of clients or even reviewing the proposals of your previous firm. Heck, I'd, go talk to the managing partner and tell him you are all in with the reduced compensation and a new role as Partner Emeritus, or Quality Champion, reviewing the work of the whippersnappers or introducing them to your client panel at a reduced compensation and reduced work week. Sort of ease your way into retirement. This approach would be win-win for you and the firm: The up and comers could receive more comp, you get to continue to save a pile of $ and reduce your stress level substantially. Although I am in a different field of work, that is my exit plan at the end of 2015.

 

[Looking4Ward]

OP,

I think there is an alternative to consider. You say you could never find a position like the one you have now and I won't dispute that. However, you don't have to! The Delta you need could be made up by VERY partime work advising a small number of clients or even reviewing the proposals of your previous firm. Heck, I'd, go talk to the managing partner and tell him you are all in with the reduced compensation and a new role as Partner Emeritus, or Quality Champion, reviewing the work of the whippersnappers or introducing them to your client panel at a reduced compensation and reduced work week. Sort of ease your way into retirement. This approach would be win-win for you and the firm: The up and comers could receive more comp, you get to continue to save a pile of $ and reduce your stress level substantially. Although I am in a different field of work, that is my exit plan at the end of 2015.

Careful with that, though. I tried something very similar only to be told three months later that the position had been eliminated as part of a strategic restructuring.

If you go that route, make sure there's a contract.

 

[robnplunder]

I don't get the OP's concern or question (if there is one). He has so much money to play with, and a budget that is mostly discretionary spending that it boggles my mind why he hasn't RE'd yet. A person with soon to be an $8M'aire posting whether he can retire or not is .... well, a bit strange.

To OP, are you serious or just letting the world know how rich you are? If you made it this far, you have already won. No need to spike the football.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I don't get the OP's concern or question (if there is one). He has so much money to play with, and a budget that is mostly discretionary spending that it boggles my mind why he hasn't RE'd yet. A person with soon to be an $8M'aire posting whether he can retire or not is .... well, a bit strange.

To OP, are you serious or just letting the world know how rich you are? If you made it this far, you have already won. No need to spike the football.

I don't get it either. If that many millions and 3 luxury vacations a year are not enough for happiness, I don't see the fourth one as being the tipping point to a fulfilling retirement.

 

[MooreBonds]

I don't get it either. If that many millions and 3 luxury vacations a year are not enough for happiness, I don't see the fourth one as being the tipping point to a fulfilling retirement.

To each his own.

Personally, you could very easily spend $80k/year on just 4 luxury vacations. Ever check out those cruises on Regent or Silver Seas (6-star level, where all wine, excursions, tipping, booze, balcony, etc. is included)? $3k/week per person. Just one 2 week cruise for 2 people is $12k. Add in a little buying of gifts, maybe a piece of jewelry, maybe some more activities, add on a few days at the beginning or end with a few great meals on your own and staying in a nice hotel, and you're easily at $20k for just one 2 week trip.

And if the OP hasn't done much traveling with the wife so far, and has been waiting for retirement, you'd actually be hard-pressed to pick "just" 4 places to go each year, even if you traveled for a decade, whether on a cruise or luxury land tour (hey, we live in a big world with tons to see, do, and experience!)

And I don't see the political winds blowing to reduce the OP's taxes in the future. If anything, I'd expect taxes for OP to increase down the road.

 

[Travelwanted]

I get it, but I don't think it matters if we "get it". If he wants to spend a million/year to accomplish his goals in retirement, so be it. Why judge that? Everyone has their own number.

I think Texan is looking for reassurance about his WR relative to age, assets and spending. And I don't think he is trying to brag or show off his success. Not sure why that issue is even raised.

 

[robnplunder]

I get it, but I don't think it matters if we "get it". If he wants to spend a million/year to accomplish his goals in retirement, so be it. Why judge that? Everyone has their own number.

I think Texan is looking for reassurance about his WR relative to age, assets and spending. And I don't think he is trying to brag or show off his success. Not sure why that issue is even raised.

You may think he is not trying to brag. Others are free to question his motivation. I.e., we are all "thinking" our thoughts here. I am not sure if there is any "issue" raised other than some people passing their opinions as you have done in your reply. But I am not judging you or the OP, just wondering and questioning about the post. After all, this is an unusual post as far as "can I retire on $xyz?" post goes. I may have seen a few others like this but this one seems to top them all.