My update: 2 to 4 years left
It has been exactly 3 years since I first posted my retirement goal. I was 50 years old, and I was hoping to retire at 53 if I was lucky enough to get an early retirement offer, or at age 56 if not.
Well, I am 53 and I have adjusted my goals to somewhere between age 55 and 57. I've learned that I was a little too optimistic. I needed to be optimistic to get me to this point. Now, I assume that social security benefits will be reduced by 20%, and I am more realistic about how my pension will lose some value until the cola begins.
I have mentally split my portfolio into two buckets, one that supplements me from retirement age until age 62, and one that supplements me from age 62 onward. The first bucket will be spent in its entirety, and the second one will have a withdrawal rate somewhere around 3.5%. That's how I figured my retirement date. I have tried modeling in firecalc, but my pension does not get a cola until I am 62, so it is difficult to model. To be conservative, I have assumed no cola, and firecalc gives me about 80% success. I figure that's not bad assuming no cola, and it kinda agrees with my buckets model.
That's my update for now. Keeping my fingers crossed.