Any other NYC'ers on this board? I see alot of people talking about retiring with annual incomes way lower than you need to afford living in the NYC area. I get the feeling most people on this board are living in another universe.
I know I'm fortunate--I'm 50, have about 4M in total assets, not including a 1.8M house, with 750K in principal left. (No, in nice NYC suburb that's not a mansion). As my handle suggests, I know I'm lucky compared to 99% of Americans. But stay with me:
Would love to retire *now*, but:
1. 3 kids not yet college age. No way will I get financial aid. If they all go to decent private schools I calculate $1M cash after tax.
2. Would like to stay in NYC area, at least until kids are gone and probably thereafter.
3. House has gone down in value. Not sure how much. So some of my home equity has disappeared.
4. But my local taxes (property and school) are almost 50K a year!
5. Very, very, (very) conservative investor. Hate stocks. With interest rates this crazy low, can't find a safe investment to generate income necessary to live in this area with 3 kids, particularly after inflation.
6. Health insurance.
As someone close to FIRE with school age kids living in the NY metropolitan area, I suggest the following:
1. You said your youngest is 10 YO now. You should put together a estimated budget which loads all of the school costs (assume all three kids go to private colleges with no financial aid), among your other expenses, and goes through the next 12-15 years until they are out of school and in the real world. It should assume that you stay in your current house, with currently local taxes (with inflation adjustments) until then.
2. Assume that you obtain a 3.5% after-tax return on your taxable investments and a 5% return on your tax-deferred investments. This should allow you to invest conservatively enough for your taste and see if the budget works. Assume your home will neither increase nor decrease in value (although your home equity will of course go up as you pay down your mortgage).
3. Assume you stop working immediately. Add some number for health insurance in your retirement budget. See what that leaves you at age 65 (obviously, you can and should run out the retirement budget to age 90) and then determine whether you have enough to FIRE now.
Until you do the work to run the numbers, you won't really know if you can FIRE now. So, do the work and report back.
I'm going to guess that your expenses run approx. $275k/yr, with $50k for taxes, $40k mortgage, $75k school and $110k health/other/inflation. If that is the case, a 3.5%/5% portfolio return is only going to pay a portion of this, and you will start eating into principal immediately. Assuming you can generate $150k in after tax income per year, you are eating $125k in net worth. Once your kids are in college, it will be higher (figure $25k times 12 year or $300k). So, in 15 years, you've eaten through $2.175mm of net worth. That would leave you with $1.8mm of net assets plus $1.5mm net equity on your house. Sell the house at age 65, and you have $3.3mm of net worth, with your expenses dropping significantly going forward and SS possibly available to provide additional income.
Seems doable, but you need to crunch the numbers to confirm that they work and really have a handle on expenses.