Okay, this is where I'm at, am I ready?

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Your post retirement spending is likely to be only somewhat related to your pre retirement spending. You'll still eat, wear clothes (presumably), drive a car sometimes, etc. If you plan to travel extensively or take up diamond collecting, your spending may rise with those newly introduced costs. All things being equal, many have found that post retirement spending is 20% or more less than their pre retirement spending. Many "guides" suggest that you'll lose some spending needs while gaining others and it will hit parity.

But...it depends...

I'd do a reasonable base budget, then add in some fudge factors for everything you're going to need to replace in the next ten years (cars, furnace, water heater, stove, furniture, televisions)...if you can figure out how much you'll spend on that stuff over the next decade, take a chunk of that and add it to your budget. Then add 10-30% "fill" to cover unexpected stuff, to suit your tolerance for risk and the unknown. There are a brazillion internet sources for budget templates, and if you look hard enough around here you'll find that ESRBob and I compared some budget stuff and I consolidated and posted what I ended up using for a template.

A big change for some ER's is that they start doing for themselves what they used to pay others to do. No more child care, gardeners, maids, oil changers, plumbers...so factor in what you can do or are willing to try out yourself.

Will you still eat out a lot or cook at home more? Get rid of your dry cleanables?

I think you get the idea. Spend a day or so figuring this all out, make a spreadsheet, and refer to it and make adjustments as more real data comes your way. I'd advise erring on the conservative side.

Be advised that the freebie company paid medical could evaporate at any time. If you're healthy that may be less of a problem...you could get yourself a high deductible policy and an HSA and skid along until medicare. If you've got preexisting conditions and some issues...factor that possibility into your plan.

Vanguard offers "lifestrategy" and "target retirement" funds, largely based on market indexes. Lifestrategy funds retain their 'shape' while 'target retirement' funds constantly adjust their holdings to become more conservative over time. Buy one to suit your risk tolerance and forget about it. You'll pay under .25% total expenses to the fund and automatically pocket what EJ is going to charge you plus the higher fund fees and trading costs they'll hand you. Its not a perfect solution, but its probably better than what an investment adviser will do to you put you into. To be fair, some advisers are good guys that will help the financially helpless avoid major screwups. Or you can just invest on autopilot as described above and save 1-2% on annual expenses. When you're making 3-5% after taxes and inflation on your money...a percent or two is a pretty big deal.

Lastly, as noted your portfolio size and guesses at your spending needs puts you a bit on the ragged edge. Calculators are fine for what they are, but sometimes I think we overplay the need for 100% probable success rates while planning. Nothing is guaranteed, so the final question is how good of an improviser are you and will you eagerly accept some potholes or will you regret your decision to get out early. Someone willing to cut their spending in half during a couple of bad investing years can easily turn 60 or 80% success rates into 100%.

 

[clifp]

It seems to me you are close to being able to retire early.

The big unknown is your spending. A couple of questions about your spending habits.
How much saving outside of your 401K do you have?
Any debt other than your motorhome?
You mentioned that you and your wife are going to be doing travel. Will this primarily be within North America using the motorhome? Or are you guys going to spring for the round the world cruise on the Queen Elizabeth 2 the wife always dreamed off. .

The people on this board are hard core savers far from typical so what we spend vs the rest of the population is probably very unusual. I finally broke down and bought a new 37" TV after keeping my old one for a mere 24 years, and the number of millionaires on this board with vehicles with more than 100,000 miles has to be some kind of record.

 

[MooreBonds]

One other comment...regarding your SS benefit, please be aware that your SS statement that you get every so often assumes that you keep working, and that future years have earnings applied to your SS account. If you retire at age 55, your (and possibly your wifes) SS benefit may be less than the SS statement indicates.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

As discussed in another thread on the SS topic, providing you have enough working years (and the OP appears to be fine there), the SS benefit will only be very slightly reduced. Perhaps as little as $10-15/month, but unlikely to be more than a hundred or so.

 

[rockyj]

One other comment...regarding your SS benefit, please be aware that your SS statement that you get every so often assumes that you keep working, and that future years have earnings applied to your SS account. If you retire at age 55, your (and possibly your wifes) SS benefit may be less than the SS statement indicates.

As discussed in another thread on the SS topic, providing you have enough working years (and the OP appears to be fine there), the SS benefit will only be very slightly reduced. Perhaps as little as $10-15/month, but unlikely to be more than a hundred or so.

It probably *is* worth it to run the different SS scenarios using the estimator calculators available from
SS website. Perhaps if you have 35 years of very nearly maximum SS earnings, going early may make very
little difference. On the other hand, I recently ran numbers based on 35+ years of current earnings, though progressively increasing throughut that period. In that case, the difference between stopping earnings at 52 and working at current levels until 66+ (full SS age), with both cases starting benefits at 66+, was in excess of $300 per month, due to newer, higher-earnings years replacing older, lower-earngins years. In any event, $3600 per year may not be worth putting in the extra work time for, or you may be able to do something with an annuity as suggested in the SS thread, but it also may not be insignificant for someone feeling close to the edge. I'd suggest running the numbers and not assuming a rule of thumb of negligible impact.

There also is some psychological comfort to be had from doing such due diligence - learning to run the numbers yourself, knowing your expenses, etc. It's not that difficult to put together piece by piece, and with each piece you put in place you may feel a little more confident and in control of your situation.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Huh...never heard of a difference that large for someone with a full 35 years in. I only have about 25 years of work, stopped at 39, and only about half of my working years were max contribution years. I think when I did the numbers there was a few hundred bucks difference but I'd have to work another 10-20 years to get it.

Sounds to me like the OP is fiddling with another year or two of work, rather than 10-11 to max out the benefit.

But due diligence is always a good idea.

 

[rockyj]

For sure, each case can be different, which is why it's good to run the numbers if it's a concern. The 35 years I mentioned above still include part-time years during high school and college (e.g. $142 in 1972), and many early- and mid-career years were well below the max. To earn that additional $300/month as described would indeed require 14 more years of work at max earnings. DW's SS also will be based on that record, which could mean an additional $150/month for her part while we're both living. So perhaps as much as much as $4800 per year could be at stake for the household. That's still not a show stopper or even much of a plan changer. But now, having run the run numbers, we have a better idea of the impact of that decision, for our particular case, and can choose more confidently. It's not rocket science (or, perhaps more appropriately, life science or organic chemistry). It's just a matter of knowing where to find the formulas, calculators, etc., and doing the arithmetic. Ferreting out those specifics via this board from others who have been there, and then following up using personal information, is a great resource and approach.

For TT, I'd also second (or third, fourth, ...) the recommendation to consider
handling investments on your own through VG or other similar no-load vehicles. A diversified, buy-an-hold strategy, appropriate to your stage in the game, need not be that difficult (can be as simple as a single life strategy or target retirement fund) and you'll likely end up with equivalent returns, lower fees, and more control of your situation for having done so.

Good luck on your planning and subsequent ER decisions.

 

[ScaredtoQuit]

TT, one of the things I would strongly recommend that you do is try to educate yourself a little more. There are two basic concepts that you don't seem to have a grasp on that you should definitely try to learn about as soon as possible:

1. In retirement, you should not plan to have more than about a 4% inflation adjusted rate of withdrawal.

2. The furor over turning over your asset management to an IP is because most folks on this Board do it themselves. With a 4% withdrawal rate, it's hard to justify giving a quarter or perhaps even half of that to someone for doing something that you could do yourself. The key to earning adequate returns is all in the asset allocation - something that is very easy to learn yourself.

These concepts and how to do them are addressed in a superb book written by one of the people on this Board. "Work Less, Live More The New Way to Retire Early" by Bob Clatt is probably the best book on the subject that I have ever read. (and I've read a lot of them). Do yourself a favor and run (don't walk) to your local book store to pick up a copy. Seeing how you still have several months to go before you have to make a decision, you have plenty of time to read it.

Now after you get it, make sure you read it cover to cover!! There are pearls of wisdom on every single page!