robnplunder
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
1. Means a very long retirement likely 40+years is that part of your modeling?
2. It says you are in the Bay Area..CA?? Are you planning to stay? As we know the Bay Area is unlikely to get cheap barring a massive earthquake...How much are you prepared to reduce your spending by? 20%? 40%
3. If you are already supporting your parents can you do so for 20+years there as well. What are the odds of your son needing help?
Running some other calculators including a MC sim with your numbers (basic) gives me some substantial chances of failure (50%) over a 40 yr retirement at 100K. Obviously reducing spending helps but if you have these other potentially fixed expenses it might be tough to drop to say 60K a year for multiple years
I've modeled it for 35 years, and will move out of Bay Area, CA if market runs into a prolonged downturn. I am also willing and can reduce expense up to 20%. I am assuming 10 more years of supporting my parents.
Thanks for running MC sim - much appreciate it. I've ran a few other calculators and have my own spreadsheet that I can input various scenarios. I believe I can make it work by being flexible with moving, and expense cutting as needed. There is a definite risk which I am willing to face it. But I need to think out of my box and see what others here (who have been there and done that) sees that I may not (or refuse to) see. So far, consensus seems to be I may be taking a bit too much risk and OMY is an astute thing to do.