The high road response was not directed at you but rather another post. Bad job on my part.
I came to that conclusion over several years based on how I was treated, the advice I received, and the overall performance of the portfolio.
Retirement Preparation
- Thread starter Wds0410
- Start date
The high road response was not directed at you but rather another post. Bad job on my part.
I came to that conclusion over several years based on how I was treated, the advice I received, and the overall performance of the portfolio.
ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
No problem at all. But I would be interested in your response, regardless of who the comment was directed at.
Since the mods have made a couple warnings here, and I'm not sure who they were directed at, I'll hold off on an attempt at a constructive comment on this, unless you specifically request the feedback.I'm just trying to stay out of trouble.
-ERD50
I actually did some analysis of my SS withdraw scenario analysis. This is for my data only and not for DW, yet.
What I did is first look look at all the SS taxes I paid over the years and deflated them into 2013 dollars.
Then I projected what SS taxes in 2013 dollars I will pay year by year between now and when I FIRE. This is easy since the SS tax cap is indexed by inflation so it is just equal to 2013 SS taxes every year I continue working.
I then went to SS web site and extracted what my benefits would be if I start withdrawing when I am 67 or 70.
Then I took 70% of the number to take into account the fact that SS will run out of funding and would be funded at 78% after 2033. I figured that 70% would be a conservative number.
Then what I did is a simple dollar and time weight ROI calculation. Since I am doing everything in 2013 dollars then my Rate of return would be in after inflation terms.
Then I tried various scenarios of when I stopped getting SS benefits which would represent what age my death would be.
This is what I got
Age of With With
Death at 70 at 67
95 2.9% 2.4%
90 2.5% 2.1%
85 2.0% 1.6%
80 1.3% 0.9%
78 0.8% 0.6%
77 0.5% 0.4%
75 0.0% 0.0%
So for me with these assumptions 75 is the break-even age. This means if I plan to live past 75 then I am better of delaying SS until age 70.
Note for me pretty every year I paid SS taxes I paid the max. But I will end up paying SS taxes for 22-23 years whereas SS calculates benefits based on a 40 year average of such a total. So such a calculation would lead to a medium sort of result in terms of benefits.
For my DW, note it is the same thing, she would have worked 17-18 years before she will join me in FIRE. Every one of these years, like me, she maxed out SS tax. But since the average is over 40 year average she will be considered "lower income" than myself so the ROI should be better. And it is.
Age of With With
Death at 70 at 67
95 3.3% 2.8%
90 3.0% 2.5%
85 2.5% 2.1%
80 1.7% 1.4%
78 1.2% 0.9%
77 0.9% 0.7%
75 0.2% 0.2%
I guess same is with her as myself, if she expects to live beyond 75 then she is better of with starting SS withdraw at 70.
When I did my estimates for post-FIRE future, I pretty much assumed our ROI in assets are around 1% greater than inflation. Looks like if my DW and I live beyond 80 then SS would have given us an return better than my assumptions on our other assets.
What I did is first look look at all the SS taxes I paid over the years and deflated them into 2013 dollars.
Then I projected what SS taxes in 2013 dollars I will pay year by year between now and when I FIRE. This is easy since the SS tax cap is indexed by inflation so it is just equal to 2013 SS taxes every year I continue working.
I then went to SS web site and extracted what my benefits would be if I start withdrawing when I am 67 or 70.
Then I took 70% of the number to take into account the fact that SS will run out of funding and would be funded at 78% after 2033. I figured that 70% would be a conservative number.
Then what I did is a simple dollar and time weight ROI calculation. Since I am doing everything in 2013 dollars then my Rate of return would be in after inflation terms.
Then I tried various scenarios of when I stopped getting SS benefits which would represent what age my death would be.
This is what I got
Age of With With
Death at 70 at 67
95 2.9% 2.4%
90 2.5% 2.1%
85 2.0% 1.6%
80 1.3% 0.9%
78 0.8% 0.6%
77 0.5% 0.4%
75 0.0% 0.0%
So for me with these assumptions 75 is the break-even age. This means if I plan to live past 75 then I am better of delaying SS until age 70.
Note for me pretty every year I paid SS taxes I paid the max. But I will end up paying SS taxes for 22-23 years whereas SS calculates benefits based on a 40 year average of such a total. So such a calculation would lead to a medium sort of result in terms of benefits.
For my DW, note it is the same thing, she would have worked 17-18 years before she will join me in FIRE. Every one of these years, like me, she maxed out SS tax. But since the average is over 40 year average she will be considered "lower income" than myself so the ROI should be better. And it is.
Age of With With
Death at 70 at 67
95 3.3% 2.8%
90 3.0% 2.5%
85 2.5% 2.1%
80 1.7% 1.4%
78 1.2% 0.9%
77 0.9% 0.7%
75 0.2% 0.2%
I guess same is with her as myself, if she expects to live beyond 75 then she is better of with starting SS withdraw at 70.
When I did my estimates for post-FIRE future, I pretty much assumed our ROI in assets are around 1% greater than inflation. Looks like if my DW and I live beyond 80 then SS would have given us an return better than my assumptions on our other assets.
Last edited:
racy
Full time employment: Posting here.
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- Messages
- 883
kmt1972,
It seems to me that the amount of SS received is only one component of the more important question: "What will my portfolio value be at various ages in the future?" (The longer one delays taking SS, the more one has to deplete their retirement portfolio). Have you done any calculations on this question?
It seems to me that the amount of SS received is only one component of the more important question: "What will my portfolio value be at various ages in the future?" (The longer one delays taking SS, the more one has to deplete their retirement portfolio). Have you done any calculations on this question?
explanade
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- May 10, 2008
- Messages
- 7,442
Is QLP a part of the Quicken Starter Edition or only the Deluxe Edition?
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
explanade said:
Deluxe edition and higher
Good point. I should factor that in as well. Since my assumptions is that assets which I might draw earlier from if I take SS at 70 as opposed to 67 are based on a post-inflation return of 1%, a more conservative cutoff should be when I am 79 and 77 for DW. That is when the return on SS for withdraw at 70 matches 1% post inflation.
