Auto Loan Debt is Spiraling Out of Control

And it's not JIT. It is also second sourcing. Through my career I watched second sourcing go from being critical to being "what's a second source?"

It was hard work to design products that could have second sourcing. It added a lot of steps to the process. It added cost. It added time to deliver first product. Management decided all that stuff was unimportant and expensive, and besides, when was the last time your first source failed to deliver? Now we know.
 
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I think they've decided to punt on making parts for older vehicles.

They sold over a million of these yet my independent mechanic had to resort to eBay to get parts when the central locking system failed on mine.

I ran into a similar problem this past summer, although admittedly, with an older car. My '67 Pontiac Catalina needed a new sway bar bushing bracket, the little U-shaped bracket that bolts to the underside of the frame. One of them had rusted completely away and was sort of just hanging there.

Now, GM was pretty annoying back then, in the sense their divisions weren't "corporate" enough. Even though the '65-70 big cars are all the same basic design, they still changed them just enough that a lot of suspension parts for a '67 Pontiac will only interchange with a '68 Pontiac. Not a '69, not a '66, and not a Chevy/Olds/Buick/Cadillac. So, it can be a bit hard to find parts for, sometimes.

Anyway, the mechanic could not find this sway bar bushing bracket. I tried Advance Auto, just on a whim, and the young'un there offered some of the stupidest advice possible. He told me that what I need to do is go find a donor car, that way I could pull whatever I need off of it whenever something on mine broke. Umm, yeah, good luck with that. There aren't that many GOOD '67 Pontiacs left, let alone junkyards full of them just waiting to be saved. And chances are, a lot of suspension components would be rusted out. The guy got me really annoyed, because he was speaking in a condescending, know-it-all sort of voice. Sometimes, it's better to just say you don't have the part in stock, and just shut up.

I ended up ordering it from a company called Ames, that specializes in classic Pontiacs. But the parts they sent me looked really generic, like the bracket could have fit any number of cars, and the only thing they changed was the diameter of the hole inside the rubber bushing. I have a feeling Advance Auto had a universal part that would fit, or could have ordered it. But the clerk just didn't know how to look it up, or didn't want to.

Another thing that was a bit annoying, my mechanic said that he couldn't find an air filter, either. In the past, air filters for this car were always easy to find. They made millions of 400-4bbls over the years. And I'd think that since the GTO is a hot item, there would be a market for them. Unless the air filter for a GTO's 400-4bbl is a different size from a full-sized car?
 
The rental agency gave me an Opel Grandland X Hybrid 4 for my month-long Europe trip. It's a nice plug-in hybrid. I never drove a hybrid before and learned to love this car.

No, I don't plug it in for the trip (they did not even provide a cord), but the larger battery allows regen on long hill descents, which means the mechanical brake is rarely used. This makes for nice fuel mileage when driving in hilly northern Italy.

Out of curiosity, looked up its price, and found it to be 51K euros. It's not cheap.

On my last trip to Europe before Covid hit, I noticed that hybrids were rapidly replacing the diesel cars as the high mileage champs. Toyota was adverting them on nearly every block. Thankfully, my RAV4 Hybrid was only about $800 more than the ordinary ICE RAV4. Today's gas prices were the final push that helped me pass the breakeven point.
 
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On my last trip to Europe before Covid hit, I noticed that hybrids were rapidly replacing the diesel cars as the high mileage champs. Toyota was adverting them on nearly every block. Thankfully, my RAV4 Hybrid was only about $800 more than the ordinary ICE RAV4. Today's gas prices were the final push that helped me pass the breakeven point.

IIRC there were (maybe still?) diesel hybrids. Most were Euro in origin. A guy I knew at megacorp got transferred to another plant site. His family didn't want to move so he drove 70 miles one way for several years. His diesel Rabbit go 54 MPG. Can you imagine a diesel, plug in hybrid?

Returning you now...
 
IIRC there were (maybe still?) diesel hybrids. Most were Euro in origin. A guy I knew at megacorp got transferred to another plant site. His family didn't want to move so he drove 70 miles one way for several years. His diesel Rabbit go 54 MPG. Can you imagine a diesel, plug in hybrid?

Returning you now...

Around here, regular gas is about $3.30. Diesel is $4.99 That's a lot to make up by increased MPG.
 
Around here, regular gas is about $3.30. Diesel is $4.99 That's a lot to make up by increased MPG.

Several years ago I rented a small Hyundai diesel car in the UK, and averaged over 58 mpg while putting over 1,000 miles on it. Ignoring the much higher cost of petrol over there, I was impressed.
 
Around here, regular gas is about $3.30. Diesel is $4.99 That's a lot to make up by increased MPG.

Good point. Of course, Diesel has about 12% more heat energy to start with. In total, the diesel cycle itself is about 30% more fuel efficient than gasoline. That puts gas and diesel on a roughly equal footing per dollar (all else equal.)
 
Good point. Of course, Diesel has about 12% more heat energy to start with. In total, the diesel cycle itself is about 30% more fuel efficient than gasoline. That puts gas and diesel on a roughly equal footing per dollar (all else equal.)

I LOVE diesels, unfortunately America does not. :(
 
I LOVE diesels, unfortunately America does not. :(

You can probably thank GM, more specifically Oldsmobile, for that. Although plunging fuel prices and improved economy of gasoline engines as the recession of the early 80s faded, and fuel injection and overdrive automatics became more common, that probably played a pretty big role as well.
 
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Yes Oldsmobile did that but just as it looked as though diesels might come back, VW put the knife in them.

I had one of the VW diesels that they bought back at a big premium due to their emissions cheating scandal. It was a great car but the offer they made to buy it back was too good.
 
You can probably thank GM, more specifically Oldsmobile, for that. Although plunging fuel prices and improved economy of gasoline engines as the recession of the early 80s faded, and fuel injection and overdrive automatics became more common, that probably played a pretty big role as well.

I actually like GM, although I currently have a Subaru.

The disaster called "Oldsmobile Diesel" is an automotive disaster like no other* (OK, maybe anything AMC, LOL). The Olds diesel was an absolute, unmitigated, piece of s---! And I can say that because I forgave them and had a 2000 Alero, which actually did me right for the first 10 years.

* - my friend's parents had one and they were always more than happy to let us borrow it to go to the movies or whatever. They didn't like it, so let the kids use it. Ha ha. It was so flaky, and it left us high and dry a few times, although usually it would self heal. Just a nasty piece of unreliable equipment.
 
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I remember mgmt. of megacorp sitting down all the staff people and 'splainin' JIT to us. I spoke up (silly me) and asked what if one little supplier failed to meet the required timing. I was told that we would choose suppliers that wouldn't fail. For the next 15 years, I watched failure after failure of JIT. But guess who the brunt of the extra effort fell on. Service groups like mine that had to rush things through once suppliers managed to get their shipments through. Suddenly the JIT was all on us! YMMV

Oh, I remember those days. At one point I was in charge of inventory (among a host of other things), and our products had some rather large margins (up to 80%) for our highest profit margin items.

New controller, and then President comes in and asks me to justify the inventory. So I put together a spreadsheet showing turnover. As I recall the average rate was pretty good, but there was one item that had a rate of less than once a year, and we had $50k of it.

I pointed out the raw material takes weeks to produce (in any quantity), and we never know when the orders will come in. But when they do, the customer will need it in days and we will make $200k in profit. But if we don't have it they will go elsewhere, and may never come back.

Believe it or not, he really listened, and when he became President of the company he was a good supporter of my efforts.
 
Plus, some of those old car payments of years gone by, don't seem so low if you throw inflation into the mix.

For example, there was a famous campaign, "$56 a month for a '56 Ford!" Now, I don't know what the terms of it were. A '56 Ford could be had for as little as $2000 for a totally stripped down base model, but I'm sure a decent one would be around $3K. Anyway, adjusting for inflation, that $56/mo would be about $609 today.

I bought a new 2000 Intrepid in the fall of 1999. Total out the door price was $22,389. I put $2K down, financed the rest at 0.9% for 60 months. Payment was $347.66. Adjusting for inflation, that would be about $618 nowadays.

Except that nobody had 72-month car loans back then.
 
Oh, I remember those days. At one point I was in charge of inventory (among a host of other things), and our products had some rather large margins (up to 80%) for our highest profit margin items.

New controller, and then President comes in and asks me to justify the inventory. So I put together a spreadsheet showing turnover. As I recall the average rate was pretty good, but there was one item that had a rate of less than once a year, and we had $50k of it.

I pointed out the raw material takes weeks to produce (in any quantity), and we never know when the orders will come in. But when they do, the customer will need it in days and we will make $200k in profit. But if we don't have it they will go elsewhere, and may never come back.

Believe it or not, he really listened, and when he became President of the company he was a good supporter of my efforts.

My megacorp bought into every "flavor of the month" program and enforced it rigidly until it so utterly failed that everyone else quit doing it. How we made money always surprised me - but we did, in spite of our "follow the crowd" attitude. YMMV
 
Gas prices just jumped here in the Bay Area. Locally, Costco went from $4.399 to $5.099. The strategic reserve must have run dry... Might want to rethink those high gas consumption vanity vehicle purchases for now...
 
My megacorp bought into every "flavor of the month" program and enforced it rigidly until it so utterly failed that everyone else quit doing it. How we made money always surprised me - but we did, in spite of our "follow the crowd" attitude. YMMV

I guess we must have been co-workers!

So, have the just in time delivery and reduced inventory fads died with the pandemic supply chain failures? Have the MBA's learned a lesson?
 
Gas prices just jumped here in the Bay Area. Locally, Costco went from $4.399 to $5.099. The strategic reserve must have run dry... Might want to rethink those high gas consumption vanity vehicle purchases for now...


This says it was "supply issues due to snags at refineries". Nothing to do with the US strategic reserve.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-09-26/gas-prices-los-angeles-united-states

and

“After declining for 98 consecutive days, the national average reversed course” on Sept. 21, “as fluctuating oil prices and tight supply due to planned and unplanned maintenance work at refineries on the West Coast and Midwest contribute to rising pump prices,” AAA reported.
https://www.thecentersquare.com/was...cle_a965c5f0-3dcc-11ed-a060-4b59104465b9.html
 
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Gas has stabilized the last two weeks. But... They're closing offshore platforms for the hurricane now. Coincidence that my nearby station went up 3cents for the first time in months?
 
Gas prices just jumped here in the Bay Area. Locally, Costco went from $4.399 to $5.099. The strategic reserve must have run dry... Might want to rethink those high gas consumption vanity vehicle purchases for now...

The strategic reserve is down quite a bit.

The US's strategic petroleum reserves have dropped to their lowest level since 1985. Stockpiles have fallen to 453 million barrels after President Joe Biden ordered a record release to ease gas prices. Analysts say releases from global reserves have contributed to the sharp fall in oil prices.
Let's hope we don't have a real oil shortage crisis anytime soon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...-its-lowest-level-since-1984/?sh=3fbfa9df77c7
 
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I can assure you he is dead wrong about that. Auto manufacturers may very well be getting what they need so if he qualified it "for auto manufacturers" perhaps he is right, But as an industrial customer buying the same kinds of FPGA and DSP chips they are, the shortage is as bad as ever.



The rise in interest rates will dramatically reduce the price of new and used cars I expect because no one will be able to afford to finance one!
He indeed was referring to autos.
 
Gas prices just jumped here in the Bay Area. Locally, Costco went from $4.399 to $5.099. The strategic reserve must have run dry... Might want to rethink those high gas consumption vanity vehicle purchases for now...

I just got gas at the Exxon station around the corner, and it was $2.95. It hasn't been that cheap for at least 6 months. I don't doubt what you are saying, but gas prices here are dropping for some reason I can't figure out.
 
Might want to rethink those high gas consumption vanity vehicle purchases for now...

Ah, but most of the time people don't think about that... till the price of gas goes up and you read the sad stories about people who can't afford to fill their trucks now...but I acknowledge, with deepest sympathy, that those who need a truck for work can be in dire straits.
 
Here in the heartland, the prices have started back up and are hovering just below the magic $4/gallon. Fortunately, Sams has gas for about 40 cents/gallon less. YMMV
 
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