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Believe in National Polls?
09-16-2014, 07:51 AM
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#1
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 6,335
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Believe in National Polls?
Simple question.
Followed up by:
Who does the polling?
How may Polls have you participated in?
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09-16-2014, 08:00 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,298
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It often depends on the exact question and who is asking it. - We see polls where the question guides the 'pollee' to an answer, and
- we often don't know (or look into) who the 'pollee's' were/are. And finally,
- too many people answer polls without knowing much about the subject (they're flattered to be asked...).
NOT TO DISCUSS THE POLL QUESTION ITSELF, but if this poll in the past few days doesn't give us pause...
 Quote:
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The poll – conducted before the latest execution emerged – showed that a combined 68 percent of Americans say they have “very little” or “just some” confidence that Obama’s goals of degrading and eliminating the threat posed by ISIS will be achieved. Just 28 percent said they had “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence. Still, 62 percent of voters say they support Obama’s decision to take action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, while 22 percent oppose it.
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__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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09-16-2014, 08:15 AM
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#3
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,349
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I'm extremely skeptical of them, simply because I almost always decline to participate myself.
However, I think some of them are probably good. I have a high regard for Pew and Quinnipiac polls, which is why those are the only ones I will give my time to.
My main beef is that the answers to most of their questions demand a yes/no response, and I can always see nuances that make my answer "Well, it depends."
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09-16-2014, 08:16 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,930
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50% of the time yes and 50% no + or -3%
Seriously, I think most polls are probably good general indicators, but can be skewed by so many factors.
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09-16-2014, 08:20 AM
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#5
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Shelton, Washington
Posts: 62
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I'm a little skeptical, became more skeptical after Cantor lost after his polling said he was going to win comfortably.
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09-16-2014, 08:21 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Most of the polls I've been invited to participate in are clearly "push polls." The questions are clearly biased and push some agenda or information they want to get across.
"Were you aware that candidate X was accused of a crime?"
"Do you feel a criminal should hold the high office they are running for?"
et cetera
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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09-16-2014, 09:49 AM
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#7
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,708
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