Big Earthquake in Cali...somewhere 3/19-3/26

They moved it...

Big California Earthquake Imminent? - Fox News Video - FoxNews.com

The prediction was made March 2, 2010. Any time now. Imminent. Yup. Aaaany time now... :whistle:


Earthquakes are a real risk, but I have my doubts about calling it to a few days or weeks. The Fox newsreaders think calling it to a few days is fine. The geophysicist they interview thinks calling it to a few decades is reasonable.
 
bizlady said:
I do not like Fox, and do not believe most of what they say. But this sure would stink up the markets just before our retirement in April! :)
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Heh heh.. funny... I like Fox and believe most of what they say, but I am not so sure about this geophysicist's prediction :)
 
Is that the guy that predicted the World Series quake in 89? He was dead on then, but quake prediction isn't exactly a science. Not much you can do about if it does happen anyway except ride it out and hope for the best.
 
flyfishnevada said:
Not much you can do about if it does happen anyway except ride it out and hope for the best.
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That's what always crosses my mind when I read these stories. It's very old news to begin with and what exactly do they think people are going to do with the info even if it is correct?
 
Where do you see the March 2 2010 date??
 
bizlady said:
Where do you see the March 2 2010 date??
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To the left at the top of the page--looks like several of us noticed it:

Latest News
Big California Earthquake Imminent?
Mar 2, 2010 - 2:57 - Geophysicist on quake risk in Calif.
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So I think you're probably as safe to retire next month as ever.
 
 
When I watch, I like the foxy foxes on FOX.
 
It is probably a good reminder to either stock up or check your supply of things that should be stockpiled in case the "big one" does hit. I've been reading that a lot of Japanese are without food and water. I always keep a supply of canned goods and a 5 gallon bottle of drinking water stored in my shed next to my camping equipment.

I pretty sure Fox does not have any special earthquake prediction talent, but the chances are pretty good that California is going to get a major earthquake before you die of natural causes.:)
 
M Paquette said:
I like the evening comedy lineup on Fox News... :whistle:
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News is OK, IMHO.

When you get to folks like Beck and Hannity, it is a bit hard to take (and this, from a FOX viewer, of many of their entertainment, news, and opinion offerings).

I do like Shep for his expanded news show (60 minutes) which covers more than the "clips" covered by the "big 3" networks.

To set the record straight, I'm a libertarian at heart. When they get their own channel, I'll start watching them. At least FOX has a libertarian show on their network - Stossel. Close enough to keep my interest.
 
Unfortunately, not only the markets but health as well. I don't think we can see yet the extent its "ripples" will affect all of us globally.
 
Isadora said:
Unfortunately, not only the markets but health as well. I don't think we can see yet the extent its "ripples" will affect all of us globally.
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Sorry, sorry - you said California, I'm still thinking of the Japanese events.
 
Midpack said:
That's what always crosses my mind when I read these stories. It's very old news to begin with and what exactly do they think people are going to do with the info even if it is correct?
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Reliable quake prediction can save many lives. IF you can get 30 seconds advance warning (I believe this is what they had in Japan??) surgeons can remove scalpels from patients. Drivers can pull over. Trains can slow down or even stop.

Predictions such as the above (likely to happen sometime over a week) are pretty useless.
 
I don't understand the criticism of this Fox News interview. It was a very accurate representation of earthquake forecasting knowledge for the western United States. Primary areas of concern include the southern San Andreas fault (mostly southern California), the Cascadia subduction zone (e.g., Washington and Oregon), and the Hayward fault (San Francisco Bay Area). The person being interviewed, Ken Hudnut, clearly stated that earthquake "prediction" efforts focus on long timescale forecasts. Often, the USGS and others use 30-year prediction windows (e.g., there is a 63% chance of a large M > 6.7 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years).
 
Shawn said:
I don't understand the criticism of this Fox News interview.
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I think there was some other story involving a prediction within a week, and that link was lost or broken.

You certainly can predict tsunamis. Here is the tsunami warning siren in Japan following the big quake. No one seems to be doing anything, perhaps the video isn't in a low-lying area??


YouTube - Emergency sirens sound ahead of tsunami in Japan
 
Shawn said:
I don't understand the criticism of this Fox News interview. It was a very accurate representation of earthquake forecasting knowledge for the western United States. Primary areas of concern include the southern San Andreas fault (mostly southern California), the Cascadia subduction zone (e.g., Washington and Oregon), and the Hayward fault (San Francisco Bay Area). The person being interviewed, Ken Hudnut, clearly stated that earthquake "prediction" efforts focus on long timescale forecasts. Often, the USGS and others use 30-year prediction windows (e.g., there is a 63% chance of a large M > 6.7 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years).
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Funny you should mention the interview with this Ken Hudnut. I saw it myself and then saw a Discovery Channel show on the big quake in Cascadia in 1700. Naturally, the United States didn't know anything about this quake at the time or at least had no records. Who had the records or how did we find out about this? The Japanese had records of a giant tsunami in 1700. One of their geophysists got together with one of our guys and determined that this tsunami was triggered by a quake in Cascadia. This guy, Ken Hudnut, went on to describe how devastating a big quake could be to this region which includes Vancouver down through the Oregon coast. Major fault line here. As much as I love the west coast, I be nervous living there.
 
 
Shawn said:
I don't understand the criticism of this Fox News interview. It was a very accurate representation of earthquake forecasting knowledge for the western United States. Primary areas of concern include the southern San Andreas fault (mostly southern California), the Cascadia subduction zone (e.g., Washington and Oregon), and the Hayward fault (San Francisco Bay Area). The person being interviewed, Ken Hudnut, clearly stated that earthquake "prediction" efforts focus on long timescale forecasts. Often, the USGS and others use 30-year prediction windows (e.g., there is a 63% chance of a large M > 6.7 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years).
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For one thing, the word "imminent". Those "newscasters" implied that the geologist was saying the big quake was going to happen right away - that is the meaning of the word "imminent". Words have meaning. You will notice that the geologist NEVER USED THAT WORD - or did he, and I missed it? The "newscasters" used it several times, and flashed it in big letters on the screen.
I did a search online of Science articles containing San Andreas and found a couple to which he might have been referring. The word "imminent" is not contained in them.
The geologist said he could only reasonably forecast within ten year intervals. It's true that USGS is predicting that there is going to be a big one, or in the case of the paper to which I think he is referring, more frequent smaller ones, but they cannot predict exactly when.
What I don't like about this newscast in particular and Fox News in general is:
1. Their primary objective seems to be to scare the viewer, and only secondarily to inform.
2. (and this is a cultural thing, I admit) The women dress like it's date night, not as professionals, and after saying something that is supposed to scare you, they open their eyes wider and pause just a second for effect. Perhaps if I enjoyed soap operas I would not mind this, but I was raised on a diet of Walter Cronkite.
 
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