Bottom fishing: Huge depreciation makes some electric cars good used vehicle bargains

[NW-Bound]

A hybrid does not have its battery exercised as hard as a pure EV such as the Leaf. In addition, a pure EV battery pack is larger and much more expensive to replace.

Quote:

Originally Posted by stepford Just a related anecdote. I've been looking at picking up a 4Runner and stopped by the Toyota dealership to take a look. Nothing on the lot - they apparently can't keep them in stock right now. But there were literally 25 brand new Priuses just sitting there begging for someone to take a look. Quite the reversal from a few years back.

Surely, nothing ever changes. A few years from now, people will be crying that the oil companies are gouging them, no matter that people all around the word are paying the same $150/barrel, and demand that Congress mounts an inquisition inquiry.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MooreBonds ... True, if large-scale battery manufacturing comes on-line, then it would drop the price....but I don't know for how much. ...

I also wonder how much effect that can have. The cells themselves are essentially (exactly?) the same as used in laptops and other applications. Those are already mass-produced.

So I'm not sure how much of the mfg is tied up in the special packaging requirements to get them in a car, and that will still be fairly low volume.

-ERD50

[Svensk Anga]

After reading this thread, who is shorting Tesla?

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Svensk Anga After reading this thread, who is shorting Tesla?

Tesla's market is so different from these other cars that I don't know if there's much applicability. And the stock price is so speculative now that I wonder if it responds to pedestrian concerns like "sales." But the experience of Chevy and others might be a warning sign as Tesla continues to make moves into the mainstream market.

At least one analyst believes oil will stay at $50-$60 BBL for years, which will continue to hurt the economic case for plug-ins. But some people aren't motivated primarily by that.

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem No sign that the Teslas are going for bargain prices.

The evil folks at Tesla decide to hold a Tesla owners event the last weekend. Beside the free food the highlight was getting a chance to test drive the new Tesla D (dual motors) models.

I am not sure which impressed me more the insane mode acceleration 0-60 in 3 seconds, is just wow that is so much fun. Or the very impressive auto pilot. One downside of the Autopilot is reads the speed limits sign so that after you hit 60 the dashboard helpful display that you just did 60 in 25 MPH zone.

If there was any possible way I could justify trading in my not even 2 year basic Tesla for 130K car, I would. But I wouldn't be shocked to see a fair number of owners upgrade so cheaper used Tesla maybe on the way.

[ERzeal]

I'm driving a 2013 Ford Fusion Energi plug-in hybrid. I've been watching the depreciation closely, since I leased it after my last car was totalled.
Only/last time I will lease. It makes no sense with my ER plans, I know. That was then, this is now. I did it for the novelty, plus a dose of indecision. I plug in at home, at w*rk, and at the airport. I'm getting about 85 mpg and almost forget to buy gas. I really like the car, outside of a few electronic glitches with the Sync & Bluetooth system.
Oddly enough, I am still above water, according to KBB and Edmunds. My residual is a few hundred lower than blue book. So I'm not sure oil is driving it in any direction, really. The lease ends soon, and it's time to cut bait.
I would really like a Tesla, and have the income, but it seems pretty much counter to our ER plans. That cash would look really pretty in a nice ETF.
I could just buy the Ford hold on, fixing my loss. But there are a lot of shiny toys sitting out there... I've recently become enamoured with the new Hyundai Genesis, for instance.
Any advice is welcome.

[REWahoo]

I was in a Toyota dealership yesterday and noticed a new (leftover) 2014 Prius C on the showroom floor with a prominent sign offering a price more than 10% off the sticker. It was the only new vehicle I saw with anything approaching that size discount.

[NW-Bound]

There have been several articles on the recent increased sales of SUVs and pickups. Here's the latest one: What's Driving the Increase in Truck and SUV Sales? - News and reviews - Boston.com.

Excerpt:

Automakers have released their sales numbers from February, and while the harsh winter appears to have taken a toll on purchasing of small cars, including sedans, SUV and truck sales grew significantly.

Sales for GM’s Chevrolet Silverado were up 24 percent from last year and GMC Sierra pickups were up 6 percent, according to Reuters.

Most people are attributing the strong showing among bigger cars to low gas prices.

[yakers]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERzeal I'm driving a 2013 Ford Fusion Energi plug-in hybrid. I could just buy the Ford hold on, fixing my loss. But there are a lot of shiny toys sitting out there... I've recently become enamoured with the new Hyundai Genesis, for instance. Any advice is welcome.

The hard decision will be comparing buying out lease and the deals that may be available on new ones. We really like our Ford Focus Electric. But I am looking at the C-MaxEnergi and the Fusion Energy because of range. Maybe I can pick up a cheap used one or maybe there will be great deals on new ones. Just hoping the oversupply of unsold ones keeps the prices down for me. And While it would be nicety have more electric cars its nice having open charging stations, another thing that would matter less with a plug in hybrid vs all electric.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by meierlde Actually as a second car you tow it. You often see towed cars behind Uhaul trucks on the interstates.

I wonder if you could tow a generator that was running. That would be somewhat hilarious, having the Volt pull a 20kW generator that was burning gas to run the Volt.

(assuming the Volt can run at hwy speeds on 20kW)

[NW-Bound]

The Volt is a hybrid, so towing a generator to extend the range would be needed for a pure EV such as the Nissan Leaf.

A typical EV uses 300Wh to go 1 mile. At that rate, going 60 mph would require a power source of 18 kW. This electric power is about 24 hp, so the number seems reasonable.

PS. A 20kW generator is sizable and unwieldy. What if you carry a portable 2kW Honda generator in the trunk? Now, as it gives you only 1/10 the power needed, you can stop and charge for 1 hour, then drive for 6 minutes (go 6 miles), and stop again for charging. A slow pace, but an ER has time to burn, right?

[yakers]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound The Volt is a hybrid, so towing a generator to extend the range would be needed for a pure EV such as the Nissan Leaf. A typical EV uses 300Wh to go 1 mile. At that rate, going 60 mph would require a power source of 18 kW. This electric power is about 24 hp, so the number seems reasonable. PS. A 20kW generator is sizable and unwieldy. What if you carry a portable 2kW Honda generator in the trunk? Now, as it gives you only 1/10 the power needed, you can stop and charge for 1 hour, then drive for 6 minutes, and stop again for charging. A slow pace, but an ER has time to burn, right?

Pretty extensive records for my car, 240.6Watts per mile for the last year, I have thought of carrying a small generator for emergencies although AAA has an emergency charging service which I have not needed or Ford's free 'recovery' system, but I just do not push the range. AFAIK most electric cars cannot be towed easily, at least drive wheels would have to be off the ground.

[mpeirce]

If range is an issue, go diesel.

E.g. VW Golf GDI gets 31/43 MPG. With its 13.2 fuel tank it has a highway range of over 550 miles.

Not as good as my Mercedes diesel with similar mileage and its 20 gallon tank, but the Golf GDI is only $22,345 MSRP.

We bought a GTI (the "more fun" variant of the Golf) as a second car and there is plenty of head and leg room for me (6' 6") and lots of room for hauling stuff.

[travelover]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce If range is an issue, go diesel. ............

I wonder how the reshuffle of fuel prices is affecting US diesel sales. In MI, diesel is almost 50% more than regular gasoline.

[mpeirce]

Quote:

Originally Posted by travelover I wonder how the reshuffle of fuel prices is affecting US diesel sales. In MI, diesel is almost 50% more than regular gasoline.

Around here (Central Ohio) it's not a huge spread.

For example, the local Kroger, where I often buy gas and diesel, is currently selling fuel for: $2.35 regular, $2.65 for premium, $2.88 for diesel.

http://www.columbusgasprices.com/Kro...547/index.aspx

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound There have been several articles on the recent increased sales of SUVs and pickups. Here's the latest one: What's Driving the Increase in Truck and SUV Sales? - News and reviews - Boston.com. Excerpt: Automakers have released their sales numbers from February, and while the harsh winter appears to have taken a toll on purchasing of small cars, including sedans, SUV and truck sales grew significantly. Sales for GM’s Chevrolet Silverado were up 24 percent from last year and GMC Sierra pickups were up 6 percent, according to Reuters. Most people are attributing the strong showing among bigger cars to low gas prices.

It wasn't low gas prices that had me buy a new SUV.... it was the Ford getting older and causing enough problems to irritate me.... plus, DW wanted a 4WD so we could go on some back roads when we went to some parks...

Supposed to get better gas mileage... but it is still too new to know yet...

[ls99]

Any money I would spend on electric cars is far better used for fueling my 7.4 litres suburban with locking differential. Or the nearly as inefficient 5.0 litre 4x4 rustbucket.

I have not figured out how an electric vehicle could provide the massive amount of heat needed on the many many sub zero F days we had.

The glory of inefficient gas hog V8 getting the cabin toasty in short order was hugely appreciated this winter. Not to mention the utility of 4 wheel drive drive pushing through 6" of snow on the back dirt roads getting to my mancave.

Shamlessly providing a link to Phil Bailey's autoblog:

pow_html

Showing depreciation from 2012 to 2015 of Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf compared to Chevy Cruze and Nissan Versa.

By the way he is not a fan of electric vehicles and has some good discussions on his blog. Far more knowledgeable and informed than I will ever be.

[GravitySucks]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Automakers have released their sales numbers from February, and while the harsh winter appears to have taken a toll on purchasing of small cars, including sedans, SUV and truck sales grew significantly. Sales for GM’s Chevrolet Silverado were up 24 percent from last year and GMC Sierra pickups were up 6 percent, according to Reuters. Most people are attributing the strong showing among bigger cars to low gas prices.

Short memories. I had to buy a car in 2007 when gas was at $5.25 around here. I went to a dealership to buy a car that got around 30 on the highway, and walked out with a similiar DeVille for $2000 less. The sales man said they were stuck with full size cars and Escalades.

I figured the $2000 would buy a lot of gas to make up the 6 MPH difference. Six months later gas was under $4.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce If range is an issue, go diesel. E.g. VW Golf GDI gets 31/43 MPG. With its 13.2 fuel tank it has a highway range of over 550 miles...

That range is almost as good as my class C motorhome. But this gas-guzzler has a tank of 55 gallons. At around 9.5 mpg on some legs when I was lucky - towing a car but driving at 60 mph and no head wind - that's supposedly a range of 522 miles.

However, I never go more than 300 miles before refueling. I keep meticulous record of the mileage between fill-ups, and the gas mileage can be as low as 6.5 mpg and as high as 11 mpg for each leg, due mostly to head and tail winds. The doggone thing is about as aerodynamic as two sheets of 4'x8' plywood facing the wind.

[ERhoosier]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce If range is an issue, go diesel. E.g. VW Golf GDI gets 31/43 MPG. With its 13.2 fuel tank it has a highway range of over 550 miles.

No need to go diesel for long range these days. For example- Nissan Altima (larger than Golf) with gas 2.5L 4cyl has a highway range over 680mi (18 gal X 38 mpg).