Economist forecasts for 2005 and Beyond......

[Cut-Throat]

"Once a year economist and novelist Paul Erdman appears before the Commonwealth Club of California, peers into his crystal ball and attempts to predict what the U.S. and world economies might have in store for the coming years. Among Erdman's predictions are an impending peak in world oil production, a steady rise in real estate prices, and an period of sub-par returns on investments."

In it he calls Bush's Social Security Private Accounts "The Stupidist Idea that Bush Has come up with yet'!

Listen to the Broadcast with follow-up Question and Answer Session immediately following his speech.

http://www.publicradio.org/tools/media/player/news/midday/2005/01/24_midday2

 

[JOhn Galt]

I'm not sure if Bush's SS proposals would be "the stupidest
idea he has come up with yet", but it has to be close.

JG

 

[dex]

Ever since I read "Bias in the Media" by Bernard Goldberg (I think the title and author is correct - but I'm on my second glass of wine so maybe not) I am much more sensitive to who is telling me what. I listen to NPR but I know they have a "point of view"

As to Bush's Social Security idea. I'll take some space to give an alternate point of view. Where to begin.
First it is a proposal and those in the media that are against it are doing what they normaly do - they marginalize the idea and show it to be extream. For example, we on this board know that when you invest you have options cash, bonds, stocks, mutual funds etc. Those against the idea only focus on stocks and how risky they are. Well, if you were to put the 16%+ (your contribution and your employeers) money into US treasury notes and/or bonds you would have a greater payout than under the current system. Why? Because the current system is based on your earnings not contributions.
There are several other aspects of the proposal that address inequities in the current system.
1. Wealth building - the wealthy can leave money to their children. Under the curent system you die and nothing (except a small burial amount) is given to your family. So think about it. You work from 15 (when I started working) - 65 and die at 65.5 years - nothing is there for your children.
2. Racial inequalities - African Americans have a shorter life span than white Americans. So take two people who contribute the same amount but the African American or American Indian etc gets less out of the system
3. Investment - see above - & we would all have more SS retirement if what we contributed was in 30 yr US Bonds.
If you are going to take issue with these concept please do so on substancial aspects and not minor details.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I'm not sure of many of you got to listen to this, but this economist had some interesting predictions.\

1.) Inflation will stay low as well as interest rates. Except Oil Prices will escalate sharply. Cheap labor worldwide will keep other prices from rising.

2.) No real estate Bubble. - He claims that interest rates will stay low, demand is high and does not see real estate prices dropping or abating.

3.) U.S. Dollar will continue to weaken on the Euro.

4.) It will be much harder to make money with money in the coming years. Low returns on Stocks and Bonds.

5.) Interesting comments on Social Security.

 

[Shredder]

I'm not sure if Bush's SS proposals would be "the stupidest
idea he has come up with yet", but it has to be close.

JG

My vote would have to go for the war in Iraq, then maybe SS reform. Hopefully this term will be a dud for him, SS will go nowhere other than some tweeking, and we will somehow escape Iraq without losing more kids for no reason........Shredder

 

[JOhn Galt]

Yes, Shredder, little progress (for change) in SS and
an Iraq exit with minimal bloodshed would be a nice
way for the next 4 years to play out. Normally I am most
comfortable when the government is paralyzed by gridlock. Don't much care what brings it about.

JG