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12-04-2022, 04:07 PM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,422
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Yes, I had a bad feeling about dictating/cap for Russia. I believe in the long haul we will suffer the ill effects of that decision.
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12-04-2022, 10:57 PM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,012
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So Russia, could now flood the oil market at $60 bbl , driving down the "real" price of oil. Sucking away the extra profits other oil companies are making.
This explains to me why OPEC has not increased it's production, no sense in selling oil cheap, as folks will buy it at higher prices once all the $60 oil is bought.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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12-05-2022, 07:55 AM
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#23
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 4,610
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Prices are drifting higher, as expected...I bet we're over $90/bbl soon enough.
I wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to over $100/bbl, at least until the next recession hits.
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12-05-2022, 08:06 AM
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#24
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
So Russia, could now flood the oil market at $60 bbl , driving down the "real" price of oil. Sucking away the extra profits other oil companies are making.
This explains to me why OPEC has not increased it's production, no sense in selling oil cheap, as folks will buy it at higher prices once all the $60 oil is bought.
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But if OPEC is up around $80 (higher now?), aren't there enough other markets for Russia to sell to? If OPEC is set at $80, Russia could sell to the open market @ $79. Who (other than EU, and now US?) wouldn't buy Russia's $79 oil (adjusted for any quality differences)?
As youbet said early on:
Quote:
Allocation of scarce resources other than by price has seldom been efficient or successful.
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-ERD50
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12-05-2022, 08:11 AM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
But if OPEC is up around $80 (higher now?), aren't there enough other markets for Russia to sell to? If OPEC is set at $80, Russia could sell to the open market @ $79. Who (other than EU, and now US?) wouldn't buy Russia's $79 oil (adjusted for any quality differences)?
As youbet said early on:
-ERD50
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Problem is they need tankers and insurance to deliver oil to buyers. EU and US allies are not providing that for deliveries priced higher than $60, per the cap. So Russia has to use a "shadow fleet" of aging tankers, which makes deliveries slow and inefficient.
Analysts are attributing today's modest price rise to loosening of covid restrictions in China
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12-05-2022, 09:04 AM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
One thing seems certain. If Putin sells at $60 - he's still making money - and a lot of it - which he seems to need right now. YMMV
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He needs it. Keep in mind the Russian economy is the about the same size as Italy and South Korea. IOW, while it is a big economy on a world wide scale, it's not so big that the country can fight a sustained war with little consequences for the public.
Keep in mind that Russian has to spread its wealth over more people than countries with similar sized economies. Same size pie, but many more mouths to feed.
Russian - 146 million
Italy - 62 million
S. Korea- 51 million
One wonders if Russian is fighting for a Pyrrhic victory at best.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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12-05-2022, 12:57 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
As youbet said early on:
Quote:
Allocation of scarce resources other than by price has seldom been efficient or successful.
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Take out the "seldom" and replace with "never" and you got it!
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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12-05-2022, 01:03 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
Take out the "seldom" and replace with "never" and you got it!
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Yep!
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12-05-2022, 01:04 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
He needs it. Keep in mind the Russian economy is the about the same size as Italy and South Korea. IOW, while it is a big economy on a world wide scale, it's not so big that the country can fight a sustained war with little consequences for the public.
Keep in mind that Russian has to spread its wealth over more people than countries with similar sized economies. Same size pie, but many more mouths to feed.
Russian - 146 million
Italy - 62 million
S. Korea- 51 million
One wonders if Russian is fighting for a Pyrrhic victory at best.
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I've always assumed that there is a lot of ego and legacy enhancement involved but I'm no expert so YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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12-05-2022, 04:01 PM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
Take out the "seldom" and replace with "never" and you got it!
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But, but, but - I've said many times on this forum "never say never"!
Hmmm, but this might be the exception?
-ERD50
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12-05-2022, 04:21 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,499
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EU playing with Russian oil prices has some interesting effects, elsewhere.
https://gcaptain.com/russian-oil-san...r-old-tankers/
"LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) – The market for old oil tankers is booming, and it’s all down to efforts by Western nations to curb trade in Russian crude."
"In recent months, aging tankers have been sold by Greek and Norwegian owners for record prices to pop-up Middle Eastern and Asian buyers taking advantage of sky-high charter prices for vessels willing to ship Russian oil to India and China. "
"New ship owners willing to transport Russian oil are cashing in. “Ships earning $80,000 a day in the Mediterranean can make $130,000 a day if they carry Russian oil,” said one ship broker, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak to the media."
The EU has shot themselves in the foot and other vital parts by deciding to rely on Russian gas, do away with their Nuke plants, and proposing to dictate prices for russian oil. A cold winter is the reward. BTW Hungary is exempt from the $60 rule. Orban had made some smart moves early on.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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12-05-2022, 05:23 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ls99
The EU has shot themselves in the foot and other vital parts by deciding to rely on Russian gas, do away with their Nuke plants, and proposing to dictate prices for russian oil. A cold winter is the reward. BTW Hungary is exempt from the $60 rule. Orban had made some smart moves early on.
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And the US needs to learn from those mistakes. So far, I see little evidence of that.
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12-06-2022, 02:34 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ls99
EU playing with Russian oil prices has some interesting effects, elsewhere.
https://gcaptain.com/russian-oil-san...r-old-tankers/
"LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) – The market for old oil tankers is booming, and it’s all down to efforts by Western nations to curb trade in Russian crude."
"In recent months, aging tankers have been sold by Greek and Norwegian owners for record prices to pop-up Middle Eastern and Asian buyers taking advantage of sky-high charter prices for vessels willing to ship Russian oil to India and China. "
"New ship owners willing to transport Russian oil are cashing in. “Ships earning $80,000 a day in the Mediterranean can make $130,000 a day if they carry Russian oil,” said one ship broker, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak to the media."
The EU has shot themselves in the foot and other vital parts by deciding to rely on Russian gas, do away with their Nuke plants, and proposing to dictate prices for russian oil. A cold winter is the reward. BTW Hungary is exempt from the $60 rule. Orban had made some smart moves early on.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo
And the US needs to learn from those mistakes. So far, I see little evidence of that.
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Yeah, I was just thinking that the USA is much smarter than Europe though YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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12-06-2022, 02:39 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
Yeah, I was just thinking that the USA is much smarter than Europe though YMMV.
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I see a train wreck coming.
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12-06-2022, 02:43 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by street
I see a train wreck coming.
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I think it's already begun and we're seeing the train wreck in slow motion. Take cover while ye may!
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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12-06-2022, 03:10 PM
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#36
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,983
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The only option I had today was to buy gas at $3.25 for the RAV4. Minimal impact since I only needed 4.9 gal. Not much actionable on my end.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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12-06-2022, 10:47 PM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
....
One wonders if Russian is fighting for a Pyrrhic victory at best.
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I think so, just pretend for a second Ukraine surrendered tomorrow, Russia would have a pretty damaged country and an unwilling workforce with a lack of women and children.
It will cost a lot to rebuild. Not much of a victory.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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12-07-2022, 09:02 AM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
.... One wonders if Russian is fighting for a Pyrrhic victory at best.
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think so, just pretend for a second Ukraine surrendered tomorrow, Russia would have a pretty damaged country and an unwilling workforce with a lack of women and children.
It will cost a lot to rebuild. Not much of a victory.
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I hope this isn't getting too (internationally) political, I actually know very little about the politics between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU.
But I guess Putin's thought is that Ukraine was unfairly taken from Russia at one point, and now he wants it back, to be part of Russia? If that's the case, I just can't see the point of bombing and destroying so much of what you want as yours. And the people of Ukraine are hating him for all this death and destruction. What's the point of alienating the people that you want to be part of your country?
Seems it would be 'smarter' (but also terrible) to start bombing Finland, and saying he isn't going to stop bombing Finland until Ukraine is turned over to him.
I just don't understand Putin's end game here.
-ERD50
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12-07-2022, 10:42 AM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,111
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"What The Ship" YouTube posting talks about the Russian oil shipments by tanker, often quoting gcaptain. Another interesting resource are postings by Peter Zeihan.
Russia must keep pumping oil west because the wellheads are in permafrost and when oil slows the water in the oil freezes cracking the pipes. Putin saying he won't sell below a certain price is BS because he must sell at the best rate he can get because he doesn't have enough storage to mop hold unsold oil.
The EU's goal is to squeeze Russia financially. At the moment insurers are European. It is likely that others will join the insurance market.. for example in India.
Peter Zeihan has been talking about Russia's plans to take Ukraine for several years. Russia signed off on Ukraine's borders years ago. Russia's land grab plans continue west into NATO countries if they are successful in Ukraine. This is only a question of a fight with Russia now in Ukraine or later in Poland.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
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12-07-2022, 01:18 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
Peter Zeihan has been talking about Russia's plans to take Ukraine for several years. Russia signed off on Ukraine's borders years ago. Russia's land grab plans continue west into NATO countries if they are successful in Ukraine. This is only a question of a fight with Russia now in Ukraine or later in Poland.
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I have no personal insight but my Polish friend is convinced that Russia has it's eye on Poland next. He lived under their influence for most of his life - and he does not want to go back to it. Hence, Poland is likely the major refugee support center for Ukraine. My friend is personally helping many refugees with food and housing. It is similar throughout the country.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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