Gees... What's next?

[tmm99]

Maywood, California, lays off all employees - Jul. 1, 2010

Quote:

Tiny Maywood, Calif., laid off every single one of its city employees on Wednesday. But that doesn't mean the city is closing up shop

Quote:

Instead of declaring bankruptcy, Maywood officials decided to outsource all city functions

[Bimmerbill]

California cutting all employees pay to minimum wage!

[REWahoo]

Looks like California's financial situation is rosy when compared to the looming disaster in Illinois (AKA "Greece by Lake Michigan").

NYT: Illinois facing fiscal 'disaster' - Business - The New York Times - msnbc.com

[ziggy29]

The condition of state and local government finances is the main reason I'm only about 50% in stocks, and even that feels too high. But as I've said before, if that 50% tanks, I have another 50% to pick up the pieces when the smoke clears. It's hard to see how this doesn't end very, very badly before getting a handle on it.

[M Paquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bimmerbill California cutting all employees pay to minimum wage!

Good news, everyone!

California government consulting firms now have job openings for legacy systems archaeologists, programmer/archaeologists who understand how to modify and debug COBOL software (with maybe ADABAS) running in a System/360 (late 60s vintage) emulation running in MVS running in a systems complex under ZCF/ICF. (As I understand it... I've done way too much legacy support, but that was more along the likes of getting Mac Classic to play nice with Mac OSX, where the folks who wrote the original were still alive!)

Alas, the people who knew what that meant have retired, and none of the High Priced Consultants have been able to figure it out.

Now, the COBOL payroll software at the heart of the beast doesn't use anything that a database programmer would recognize. There's no real transactional processing here. It predates VSAM. (nervous yet?) Specifically, the beast doesn't have the facility to track what someone should be paid, pay them a different amount, and track the accumulated difference in pay, and difference in charges to department payrolls, and all the other fiddly bits.

They also don't have the staff to quickly write all this new code to implement the needed facilities, figure out how to shoehorn it into a virtual Sys/360 machine, test, and debug it. Certainly not on minimum wage!

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by M Paquette Alas, the people who knew what that meant have retired, and none of the High Priced Consultants have been able to figure it out.

You mean they haven't been able to coax anyone out of retirement to do consulting work for minimum wage?

[M Paquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 You mean they haven't been able to coax anyone out of retirement to do consulting work for minimum wage?

Bingo! A succinct summary of da situation.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 You mean they haven't been able to coax anyone out of retirement to do consulting work for minimum wage?

Maybe the bad economy will produce its own solution. Some of those retirees with needed knowledge are likely to be retired California State employees. If the retirement checks start bouncing, maybe they'll agree to come back to work--but I'll bet they demand cash payment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 The condition of state and local government finances is the main reason I'm only about 50% in stocks, and even that feels too high. But as I've said before, if that 50% tanks, I have another 50% to pick up the pieces when the smoke clears. It's hard to see how this doesn't end very, very badly before getting a handle on it.

Do you see a specific mechanism by which the state budget woes result in big equity declines, are are you just worried that the state problems will result in a pall that affects the markets? It's at least possible that if state and municipal budget woes get bad enough that some Muni money will go to equities--for safety.

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem Do you see a specific mechanism by which the state budget woes result in big equity declines, are are you just worried that the state problems will result in a pall that affects the markets? It's at least possible that if state and municipal budget woes get bad enough that some Muni money will go to equities--for safety.

I think it will lead to a new wave of "buy nothing and hoard cash" among public employees who may have felt immune to or bulletproof from economic deep doodoo until now. Which in turn can result in reduced demand for all but the essentials, lead to more layoffs, cause more people to hoard cash, and down we go again just like in '08 into the first half of '09.

Hope it doesn't happen, but that's what I expect to see. I believe this next leg of the economic "retooling" is going to finally be the one where many government employees have to start facing many of the same economic and employment concerns as their private sector counterparts.

[Bimmerbill]

I bet you will see a bunch of retirements too. At least for those on the fence about pulling the plug. Take the money (while its still there) and run!

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem Maybe the bad economy will produce its own solution. Some of those retirees with needed knowledge are likely to be retired California State employees. If the retirement checks start bouncing, maybe they'll agree to come back to work--but I'll bet they demand cash payment.

I'd think that programmers of arcane, complex, obscure, poorly-understood languages would be deliriously happy to code back doors updates to payroll systems... who needs cash after that?

[antmary]

I have several relatives retired from the State of California; I am wondering how the recent downturn will effect their pensions, if at all. They are all retired professors.

I hope I'm not asked to get the spare bedroom ready

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by antmary I have several relatives retired from the State of California; I am wondering how the recent downturn will effect their pensions, if at all. They are all retired professors. I hope I'm not asked to get the spare bedroom ready

Given that states can not declare bankruptcy, federal laws concerning protections for pension benefits already earned and CA state laws using the power to tax as a guarantee to state pension funds, I wouldn't worry too much. Those on local government pension plans are at greater risk. They can't print money and they CAN declare bankruptcy.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords I'd think that programmers of arcane, complex, obscure, poorly-understood languages would be deliriously happy to code back doors updates to payroll systems... who needs cash after that?

If they set up a subroutine that rounded off the excess portions of a penny from each transaction into a special account . . . .

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem If they set up a subroutine that rounded off the excess portions of a penny from each transaction into a special account . . . .

That would be terrific.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 That would be terrific.

"Yeah . . .I'll need you to go ahead and come in on Saturday to work on it . . ."