Hurricane and Tropical Talk - 2019 season

[JoeWras]

Since this season has heated up, I decided to start a more general thread to finish it out.

Dorian has come and gone, creating incomprehensible destruction in the Northern Bahamas, and giving the NC outer banks a pretty good slap.

Today, another storm is brewing that may follow in Dorian's footsteps. This is terrible news for the Bahamas.

On a personal note, I have a few NC based hurricane relief trips scheduled in the upcoming weeks. We don't need anymore storms! One trip is continuing work to fix damage from last year. Another is to ferry out to Ocracoke island and work on tarping and mucking. Mucking is basically ripping out all flood damage and is a first important step to stop mold intrusion.

 

[Dtail]

You're a good man. Thank you.

 

[Aerides]

Today, another storm is brewing that may follow in Dorian's footsteps. This is terrible news for the Bahamas.

It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.

 

[Dtail]

It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.

I believe the storm will be named Humberto. Fernand passed already.
I am sailing out of Port Canaveral on Sunday, right about when the storm might hit. Yes a non hurricane, but will be driving there on Sunday morning.
All part of an exciting start to the cruise. lol

 

[Koolau]

It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.

Yeah, not to tempt Porky, but I have to laugh when I see news pundits spending whole segments on the 'dramatic shift' in weather patterns due to (what's the current term? 'global climate change?') One bad storm and they have the final proof. I'm thinking it might take a few seasons to make any conclusions, but that's just me, so YMMV.

If a storm hits YOU, it's definitely a big deal, so I very much have empathy for those affected. Feel really sad for folks in the Bahamas. It must be difficult to deal with days, weeks perhaps months or years of no power, limited water, clean up, body recovery, etc. Thanks JoeWras for what you are doing. Most of us can contribute to immediate help and I'm guessing that most of us do.

 

[RunningBum]

Sea levels are higher. That's not debatable. So even if hurricanes are no more intense, they will cause more damage. Why are sea levels rising? I think that's very obvious, but I'll stop there. It's not a laughing matter though. I'm appalled that you think it is.

 

[JoeWras]

It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

I beg to differ.

As a relief worker, we pray for sunny skies and calm winds.

Any wind or rain really hampers relief efforts. That's what I was thinking.

 

[JoeWras]

I have opinions on the politics of science and news reporting too, especially with regard to hurricanes. I would love to discuss some day.

But as the OP, I beg of all of us to keep the focus on the season at hand, and not tempt porky.

Thanks.

 

[RunningBum]

Joe, are you doing this for your personal property, to help friends, or just to help people in general?

In any case, good luck, and I hope the weather cooperates with your efforts.

 

[audreyh1]

It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.

Fernand already happened and gave us some nice rain, the first in many weeks. This one will be Humberto if it makes it to tropical storm.

 

[JoeWras]

Joe, are you doing this for your personal property, to help friends, or just to help people in general?

In any case, good luck, and I hope the weather cooperates with your efforts.

Thanks.

I'm just in it to help people. I live well inland and have no property at the coast.

I kind of found my calling last year after ER with this gig. I like handyman work, and this scratches the itch. You know, we discuss here "What did you retire TO?" I guess for now, this is it. I have the time and skills. I meet interesting people, and work with really great people. And I can stop anytime.

The people we've been helping have generally lived there a long time (some multi-generational) and have limited means. They are extremely grateful for the help which always lifts spirits.

We generally work inland too. We typically don't do work on the beach rows since those folks generally have the means to support themselves. The Ocracoke flood will be a bit of an exception. Mucking is an overall community health and safety issue. FEMA supports that effort, along with tarping.

 

[bigcmagor]

Mucking is basically ripping out all flood damage and is a first important step to stop mold intrusion.

"I'm a FIRE'd Mucker" is a great way to respond to those who ask what you will ever do with all your new free time.

Sounds like a rewarding way to spend some early retired years. Thank you.

 

[OldShooter]

I volunteer with Red Cross. Just got back from Charleston, where most of us were released early because the damage was relatively (and fortunately) minimal. So I do keep track of this stuff.

For those who may not have found it, here is the NWS hurricane Page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ The info is updated frequently and there are many maps and reports that can be called up.

Red Cross is, of course, very interested in weather issues and trends. Here is the ARC weather site, which could be characterized as comprehensive or even as overwhelming: https://maps.redcross.org/website/Weather/ARC_Weather.html

 

[JoeWras]

"I'm a FIRE'd Mucker" is a great way to respond to those who ask what you will ever do with all your new free time.

I may just use that!

 

[HFWR]

Too lazy for references...

So, can’t say if frequency or intensity of hurricanes/typhoons has increased. But not all storms hit landfall, and not all are of Atlantic or Caribbean origin...

 

[JoeWras]

Too lazy for references...

So, can’t say if frequency or intensity of hurricanes/typhoons has increased. But not all storms hit landfall, and not all are of Atlantic or Caribbean origin...

Just about every weather person I know agrees there are cycles in frequency. But yeah, they diverge as to intensity and strength of cycles. Agendas seem to get in the way, which is too bad.

Humberto appears to be going out to the Atlantic. Bermuda has to be aware, as they always do. Bermuda is vulnerable from many angles. Even so, in 200 years of recording, they've only had 12 direct hits. Many, many near hits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bermuda_hurricanes

 

[Teacher Terry]

Joe, that’s really great. My husband and I help people locally when we hear of a need. We have taken people to doctor appointment, their pets to the vet, errands, helping elderly with phone calls and paperwork when a spouse dies and have set up in home services.

 

[JoeWras]

Imelda popped up really fast. I saw some experts confused that the NHC didn't classify it quicker.

In any case, the danger is it may stall in TX. Right now, it has ingested a lot of dry air so Houston and The Woodlands (we have a lot of members there) are not getting a ton of rain, yet. Stay aware. The right side, Beaumont and Port Arthur need to watch for training storms and bands. It could put down a lot of rain.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Imelda popped up really fast. I saw some experts confused that the NHC didn't classify it quicker.

In any case, the danger is it may stall in TX. Right now, it has ingested a lot of dry air so Houston and The Woodlands (we have a lot of members there) are not getting a ton of rain, yet. Stay aware. The right side, Beaumont and Port Arthur need to watch for training storms and bands. It could put down a lot of rain.

we got a lot of rain during TS allison - Ike was the one that got me to move though - looks like this one may stall too?

 

[JoeWras]

we got a lot of rain during TS allison - Ike was the one that got me to move though - looks like this one may stall too?

Moving slow. It is hard to predict the rain bands. So, be on the look out.

Sometimes non-hurricanes (depressions or storms) can cause the worst flooding.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Moving slow. It is hard to predict the rain bands. So, be on the look out.

Sometimes non-hurricanes (depressions or storms) can cause the worst flooding.

my family lives in the 77018 so they are on relatively high ground - stay dry!

 

[JoeWras]

Back from another long term disaster relief operation here in NC. This effort will go on another 2 to 3 years, assuming no more big storms.

People ask if they can get involved, beside giving money. Yes you can.

Specifically, I want to reach out to any church groups out there that may be planning youth mission trips for next summer. I can connect you with a few organizations to do this in NC. PM me. The best groups have strong adult leaders with some skill, and youth with an open heart willing to learn.

Adult groups are also certainly in need too! The home I worked on had a group from California fly out a few weeks ago. They hung doors and put down flooring. The adult group I work with does a little of everything. We were installing new windows and performing numerous "punch list" items.

The families we work with are all deserving and well vetted for their need. In some cases, insurance was inadequate. In other cases, flooding was so far off the map that they never imagined flood insurance was required, and nobody required it. Our most recent project was for a hard working family that needed a hand since they didn't have flood insurance. The house only had 1 inch of flood water in the house. Didn't matter because it ruined the HVAC under the house, ruined the subfloor, and absorbed up the drywall which had to be replaced.

I also respect that not everyone wants to be associated with a faith based organization. So, one org that we've crossed paths with is "Team Rubicon." This org is run by veterans, but civilians are welcome to join. They can deploy fast (they are in The Bahamas now), but they also do more local long term relief too. They are everywhere in the USA. They are heavily involved in Harvey relief, still!

They have a good web site that is worth exploring to see what kind of work is being done. You can also sign up to volunteer. The web site is worthy of a good surfing session just to learn what disaster relief is all about:

https://teamrubiconusa.org/

 

[RAE]

Well, it looks like Tropical Storm Karen will now be one to watch closely, if you live anywhere along the U.S. SE or Gulf Coast. Early projections had it headed safely north and east, out to sea, but this morning the models changed their tune. Now a lot of models show it running into a brick wall (big ridge of high pressure) somewhere east of the Florida peninsula, and then making an abrupt left turn, heading west. Not good! Of course, we are still 8-10 days out, so a lot of things can/will change between now and then - but definitely something to keep an eye on.....

 

[Dtail]

We just came back from a week long cruise. We missed the effects of Hurricane Jerry by one day at St. Maarten and did feel some swells from Humberto despite it being 100's of miles away.

 

[lemming]

Imelda really made a mess for being a TS . Bands and bands of rain just overwhelmed the system. I am not in the area but I was surprised at so many people denying that there was a problem at all because their street was not flooded. I know there are some areas that you know will flood in any storm but I don't expect to see a picture of water up to the level of streetlights on overhanging poles.
I feel like the season will last longer this year-mostly because it is so darn hot still. But it matters what the temps are like half a world away.
Yay for JoeWras going back to keep digging out the mess . I have never done anything except throw money at them. Now I am sure I would just be in the way-I can't bend,lift or carry. As for the Red Cross-we all grumble about how much they spend but we still expect them to show up first at every crisis from a house fire to a whole island swept away.