Hypothetically: if China invades Taiwan?

[d2reid]

Thanks for all the responses. I guess the investing in the stock market is like riding a new whitewater river, you have the guide that can give you and idea of what may happen, but you won't really know until your boat hits the rapids.

To my question, it looks like the consensus is that you can't really tell. War effort stocks may go up, US based critical supply manufacturers may go up, otherwise it will probably go down, but may not.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by d2reid Thanks for all the responses. I guess the investing in the stock market is like riding a new whitewater river, you have the guide that can give you and idea of what may happen, but you won't really know until your boat hits the rapids. To my question, it looks like the consensus is that you can't really tell. War effort stocks may go up, US based critical supply manufacturers may go up, otherwise it will probably go down, but may not.

Heh, heh, you catch on quick!

[Keim]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DFW_M5 ...doesn't anyone have concerns about the big picture of what China is up to?

I came to the conclusion 20 years ago that we were in an economic war with China and simply too short sighted to realize the long term importance of it. Their centralized govt works with long term plans. We cant seem to see past the next quarterly profit statement.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keim I came to the conclusion 20 years ago that we were in an economic war with China and simply too short sighted to realize the long term importance of it. Their centralized govt works with long term plans. We cant seem to see past the next quarterly profit statement.

We enjoy the cheap goods from China, and it comes with a cost.

Same as Western Europe enjoying the natural gas from Russia, and it comes with a string, no call it a chain, attached.

It's damn hard dealing with countries ruled by despots. How we can win, I don't know.

[ls99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keim I came to the conclusion 20 years ago that we were in an economic war with China and simply too short sighted to realize the long term importance of it. Their centralized govt works with long term plans. We cant seem to see past the next quarterly profit statement.

US companies willfully moved or sold pruduction of many things to China. Many designs and technologies they stole. China can only prosper if there is a huge market that wants the stuff they make, steel, aluminium, widgets and gizmos. They also rely on unfettered availabilty and transport of raw materials from areas (continents) elswhere.
Should either the raw material supply chain from elsewhere or the exporting of stuff to willing buyers get disrupted far any signioficant time, they are toast.
Seems to me the only long game the chinese play is printing of money.
There is nothing they make that can not be produced elsewhere, like here in the US, albeit at higher manufacturing cost. Likely the quality would better, so less of a throw away mentality would prevail.

[mf15]

If anything starts in Korea we are automatically sucked into the war. 2nd ID is still there. Spent all of 1971 in or around the DMZ,not a nice place. We were there as a speed bump.
A 1/15 FA 2nd ID.
Oldmike

[SecondAttempt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by foxfirev5 Yep. Taiwan is not Ukraine.

Yes, Taiwan is not Ukraine. And China has learned a lot from Russia's experience in Ukraine. Even if they walked all over Taiwan militarily, which they like could, sanctions like what Russia is seeing would devastate China. It would almost certainly put an end to their belt and road initiative which they have sunk a lot into. And the world can live without most Chinese products easier than without Russian oil, gas, and wheat.

Most of the saber-rattling is aimed at the Chinese dometsic audience. Ping wants a 3rd term and while China is clearly not a democracy, it still takes political maneuvering for him to get what he wants.

Ping is also much smarter than Putin in my opinion. Putin is a bully. Ping is strategist.

Frankly, I doubt China will invade Taiwan in my lifetime. Taiwan has more value to China as a renegade province than if they controlled it.

North Korea is a different matter. Kim is a moron and that makes him dangerous. But if there is a war with North Korea, China faces a refugee crisis so it is clearly not something they want!

[foxcreek9]

From the WSJ yesterday - world wide depression at a minimum and we are not prepared

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-com...hare_permalink

[frayne]

A good discussion from the Hoover Institute on the China/Taiwan situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ-4EM-pfRU

[teetee]

Taiwan won't put up a fight if China invaded. They had the past 70 something years to become independent but during the first 5 decades the politics were controlled by the China-leaning refuge party and the remaining years people in Taiwan did not know better. They had their chance. Much more could have been done.

Some people tried and sacrificed their lives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan...dence_movement

I thought once the elders, who had roots in China have died off, the idea of Taiwan obtaining independence would become the consensus among the population. It did not, thanks to years of brainwash and opening economy with China by KMT.

Taiwan is not going to be like Ukraine. It is an island. Blocking the air and sea shipping and it doesn't need more than a month before people starve. There are nuclear plants on two ends of the island. It won't take much bombing to wipe out the top two major cities (Taipei and Kaousiung). Taiwan is not in NATO and there are still significant portion of the government (mainly KMT) think Taiwan belongs to China. It is just a poop show waiting to happen. China already thinks Taiwan is part of China, they don't have to make up excuses like Putin did to start their 'special military operation'.

The only thing that is similar with the Ukraine war is that the US can only enforce the economic sanctions against China. The US doesn't want to start the nuclear war and China thinks their invasion is internal affair. Taiwan's situation is much worse than Hong Kong when it was assimilated in 97'.

TSMC can only give so much leverage. The new Fabs are being built in several locations in the US (one has the 3nm chip planned). That alone should give a good indication that US already had the worse case scenario and TSMC is jumping ship.

[eytonxav]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keim I came to the conclusion 20 years ago that we were in an economic war with China and simply too short sighted to realize the long term importance of it. Their centralized govt works with long term plans. We cant seem to see past the next quarterly profit statement.

Yep, why we could not read the tea leaves over many many years ago is beyond me. The gradual withdrawal of our dependence of products from China should have happened long ago, and as the one economist suggested the greatest strength we have against China is economic. Can't flash cut away, but gradual reduction away and tightening the economic noose better start soon while they are still undergoing economic turmoil. If Hong Kong, Covid and now Pelosi's visit isn't enough of a wake up call, I don't know what else needs to happen for our gummit to recognize their belligerent motives and act accordingly.

[audreyh1]

Apple, who builds phones in China and uses chips manufactured in Taiwan, is having to deal with a battle over labeling which is holding up parts at customs.
https://appleinsider.com/articles/22...ents-arent-met

[Closet_Gamer]

I think China invading Taiwan will be a world historic event that puts the Western powers, most notably the US, in a very difficult position.

Don't defend Taiwan and we're blinking on decades of expectations that we would intervene. This would accelerate and embolden China while chilling Pacific allies with whom we have no formal mutual defense treaty. The only good news is that like what's happening with Europe re-arming, our Asian allies may shift into full defense readiness mode.

Defend Taiwan and its WW3 with no obligations that any Asian allies get involved...and no obligation that NATO get involved as we would not be attacked but rather would make a voluntary choice to involve ourselves. (Not that NATO could do much anyways.)

I do think Taiwan would fight fiercely for a short time. Particularly having seen what happened in Hong Kong, there would be no illusions about Taiwan's future. China would be a dog biting a bee. It would hurt but the bee would lose quickly unless others came to its aid.

In any event, the markets would get CRUSHED for a short time with the medium-long term outlook depending on whether we intervened or not.

Let's all hope that this doesn't come to pass.

[ncbill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by teetee Taiwan won't put up a fight if China invaded. They had the past 70 something years to become independent but during the first 5 decades the politics were controlled by the China-leaning refuge party and the remaining years people in Taiwan did not know better. They had their chance. Much more could have been done. Some people tried and sacrificed their lives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan...dence_movement I thought once the elders, who had roots in China have died off, the idea of Taiwan obtaining independence would become the consensus among the population. It did not, thanks to years of brainwash and opening economy with China by KMT. Taiwan is not going to be like Ukraine. It is an island. Blocking the air and sea shipping and it doesn't need more than a month before people starve. There are nuclear plants on two ends of the island. It won't take much bombing to wipe out the top two major cities (Taipei and Kaousiung). Taiwan is not in NATO and there are still significant portion of the government (mainly KMY) think Taiwan belongs to China. It is just a poop show waiting to happen. China already thinks Taiwan is part of China, htey don't have to make up excuses like Putin did to start their 'special military operation'. The only thing that is similar with the Ukraine war is that the US can only enforce the economic sanctions against China. The US doesn't want to start the nuclear war, China thinks their invasion is internal affair. Taiwan's situation is much worse Hong Kong when it was assimilated in 97'. TSMC can only give so much leverage. The new Fabs are being built in several locations in the US (one has the 3nm chip planned). That alone should give a good indication that US already had the worse scenario and TSMC is jumping ship.

EVERY "China invades Taiwan" scenario I've read doesn't involve a blockade, but an actual invasion, & has China first launching simultaneous attacks on US forces in Okinawa, Guam, & any US intelligence resources (e.g. satellites)

Which would mean thousands of US military dead plus likely tens of thousands of dead civilians, mostly Japanese.

The above wouldn't result in a war limited solely to the Taiwanese theatre.

[d2reid]

I can see where China would think Taiwan is within their purview. It's only 100 miles off there coast. I can see where US intervention would be upsetting to them. Kind of like when Russia was ramping up in Cuba. I know it's not exactly the same.

You all may think I am bit of an uneducated red neck but when it comes to purchasing something I choose "Made in USA" over "Made in China" even though it costs more.

Digging a little deeper this morning, saw an article where US Department of State changed their web site to state: "We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence;" Which then led me to look at the Taiwan Relations Act which states "The TRA does not guarantee the U.S. will intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades"

So back in May Biden stated that the US would intervene militarily should China Invade Taiwan.

An article in the Diplomat states: " The United States seems to be improvising its Taiwan policy, fueling Beijing’s suspicions about the United States’ true intentions and raising the risk of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait."

So after looking at it I have decided that the Pelosi visit is not an actual commitment but simply posturing. An attempt to reinforce the status quo. We tend to show support for budding democratic governments, and we have strong economic interest in Taiwan. The reality is that should China decide to invade Taiwan our response would too little too late to be effective.

I am feeling a lot better now about the Taiwan situation. Status quo appears to be the best solution for all.

This is an interesting forum that is thought provoking. YMMV (Your mileage may vary) aka you may have a different opinion?

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound We enjoy the cheap goods from China, and it comes with a cost. Same as Western Europe enjoying the natural gas from Russia, and it comes with a string, no call it a chain, attached. It's damn hard dealing with countries ruled by despots. How we can win, I don't know.

Only way to win that game is not to play. I think we're beyond that and we'll will pay the price. Bad as it's gonna be to extricate ourselves, it won't get better by waiting. BUT, I think our fate is baked in the cake and no one has the nerve to do anything - if TVs are suddenly either not available or twice as expensive, people won't vote for you. So, I think we're stuck. When it all hits the fan, let's hope we come out okay. I wouldn't count on it. Last couple of days shows what we're dealing with. Seems like no one is paying attention but YMMV.

[GTFan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncbill EVERY "China invades Taiwan" scenario I've read doesn't involve a blockade, but an actual invasion, & has China first launching simultaneous attacks on US forces in Okinawa, Guam, & any US intelligence resources (e.g. satellites) Which would mean thousands of US military dead plus likely tens of thousands of dead civilians, mostly Japanese. The above wouldn't result in a war limited solely to the Taiwanese theatre.

I agree with this, and if you look at the war games that some have conducted we lose in almost every case because it's way easier for China to takeover an island next door than it is for us to extend power that far, especially if they can take out our key bases and carriers first. Tons of lives lost on both sides.

Very very bad war for all of Asia and the world, and we can only hope Xi won't go that far. I wonder how far the US and Asian allies would go in a blockade scenario though, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Some might consider the current exercises to be a trial run.

Article's a year old but talks about such a scenario:
https://www.businessinsider.com/taiw...an-2021-6?op=1

[jollystomper]

My view is that any China invasion would more likely be one that does not impact the Taiwan infrastructure. Taiwan has technology (not just chips) that China is interested in.

We visited Taiwan in 2018 ( my DW lived in Taiwan for a few years back when the mainland was still "closed", and one DS was working there in 2018), and several times in Taipei we saw peaceful pro-China demonstrations. There seem to be a number of people - particularly as those who fled China die out and the memory fades from their descendants - who do not see China as "evil" as we see them. Despite the destruction the mainland wreaked on historical sites and artifacts.

It would be unfortunate. Having been in Taiwan and (several times) mainland China , there is a world of difference in just the "atmosphere" between the 2 places.

[gromit]

I'm not actively looking at this thread, but I thought I could toss in a good (and long) Reuters Investigates article. It covers possible scenarios of China taking action, including a full invasion, a blockade, taking a smaller island etc. It also covers what the US responses might look like. The article graphics require you to keep scrolling down through them to make them interact and get you to more text. Open the article and it sits there at the beginning of a graphic....just scroll down. The article was from 11/21 and I read it then and thought it was interesting.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates...hina-wargames/




ps: I didn't have trouble getting to the article, but if it gives you a paywall because you've read too many articles, Reuters is one of a few websites where opening a Firefox private window will get you in anyway.

[Montclairbobbyb]

... it will not be good.

It could potentially tip the scales and trigger a global war on several fronts.

Even if it doesn't start WWIII, the economic impact (damage) to the US could be dramatic. We are in a very dangerous situation, and the US has an opportunity to show strong diplomatic leadership.

Pray for our leaders, pray for a peaceful outcome.