Is the American Empire on the Decline?

[6miths]

The USA has been a world superpower for less than 100 years. Before that we were busy with manifest destiny.

If I had my druthers, I'd rather us not be in the Empire business at all.

+1

Not that it matters in terms of the 200 year clock.

'The only thing that is constant is change.' ― Heraclitus

 

[growing_older]

This speculating about the decline of empire based on women in the professions and degree to which music is contrary to the tastes of older generations is missing the point. If the US "empire" is in decline it will be due to the shifts away from regard for education and hard work. We have higher enrollment in colleges, but the curriculum is dumbed down and we give "participation" awards to everyone. Meanwhile, China and other aspiring economic powers are building an industrial base that will rival ours. Already if you want a new heavy production machine, you more often find them from foreign suppliers than US. They are working to instil an ethics of hard work and dedicated efforts, while we denigrate wonks, nerds and workaholics, even to the point that schools routinely reward athletic performance above intellectual achievements.

We do have a small number of winner take all founders and entrepreneurs, but for the vast majority the notions of providing a good day's work for a good day's pay are quaint and out of date. People are looking for shortcuts, minimal efforts and "schemes" to get rich, and no longer expect to be rewarded for hard work and dedication. See what a minority opinion LBYM is. Family structures and community institutions are in decay. These are more likely to erode the power of the empire than choice of entertainment or the deplorable tendency of the oppressed minorities to no longer quietly accept their continued subjugation or even the choice of young black teenagers to wear sagging pants.

 

[timo2]

This speculating about the decline of empire based on women in the professions and degree to which music is contrary to the tastes of older generations is missing the point. If the US "empire" is in decline it will be due to the shifts away from regard for education and hard work. We have higher enrollment in colleges, but the curriculum is dumbed down and we give "participation" awards to everyone. Meanwhile, China and other aspiring economic powers are building an industrial base that will rival ours. Already if you want a new heavy production machine, you more often find them from foreign suppliers than US. They are working to instil an ethics of hard work and dedicated efforts, while we denigrate wonks, nerds and workaholics, even to the point that schools routinely reward athletic performance above intellectual achievements.

We do have a small number of winner take all founders and entrepreneurs, but for the vast majority the notions of providing a good day's work for a good day's pay are quaint and out of date. People are looking for shortcuts, minimal efforts and "schemes" to get rich, and no longer expect to be rewarded for hard work and dedication. See what a minority opinion LBYM is. Family structures and community institutions are in decay. These are more likely to erode the power of the empire than choice of entertainment or the deplorable tendency of the oppressed minorities to no longer quietly accept their continued subjugation or even the choice of young black teenagers to wear sagging pants.

In pondering your comment, It occurred to me that we may be discussing the old, 'national' version of Empire. That model just might be long gone. Because who is it that funded the heavy production equipment in other countries? It was us. Who is it that made a hard days work less valuable in the USA, thus undermining our social structure? It was us. Our corporations became global, and now they don't need us, except for our military. We gave away the national empire to a collective corporate empire, which as a whole doesn't give a hoot about the social or cultural mores of any given nation. Maybe. Just a thought.

 

[robnplunder]

That's actually Cal Thomas's interpretation of what looks like a thumbnail summary of the actual 26 page essay by Glubb. The essay is much more fun. Glubb Pasha, as he liked to be called, was a veteran of the last of the great adventures of the British Empire, and observed many cultures in the Middle East.

Here he ties the decline of the Arab Empire to guitar music:
Many of our members will enjoy this bit:
There's plenty more in Glubb Pasha's actual essay, which largely reads like the writings of someone whose world view was solidly frozen in 1920 Great Britain, and did not age well.

That figures! Thanks for enlightening me. You saved me the trouble of reading Glubb's essays.

I'd like to start my own empire and will name it Erorg. I always wanted to be an emperor.

 

[haha]

Harumph! Indeed, indeed! Why, we need merely look about us and see the signs of decline Glubb Pasha has so thoughtfully noted for us:

• Guitar music, and degenerate lyrics
• Women involved in public life, being appointed as judges or elected to office!
• Celebrities and other such frivolity!
• Spectator sports! More frivolity, and the decline of proper cricket matches!
• Introduction of the five-day work week!
• Providing government grants to university students!
• Offering free medical treatment to the poor!
• Generalizations!

Egad! We may very well be doomed. Bring back the treadmills and work houses. Re-institute an honest six and a half day workweek. Ban frivolity. Reserve university education for those classes worthy of it. Put women back in their proper place. Deal with these foreigners.

View attachment 20794

hey, I am just as pious in our modern social religion as you are. I merely assert that these beliefs and the ensuing practices may have no relation to the maintenance of empire, or may even be negatively associated.

It is a possibility, though not one to be discussed here.

Ha

 

[M Paquette]

hey, I am just as pious in our modern social religion as you are. I merely assert that these beliefs and the ensuing practices may have no relation to the maintenance of empire, or may even be negatively associated.

I have a suspicion that Glubb absorbed a healthy dose of Spengler's "The Decline of the West", and mapped his own observations on empire and 'kids these days' onto it, resulting in the essay that Cal Thomas may have glanced at. The original essay is more an insight into Glubb's world view than into the maintenance of empire.

I blame the guitar music.

 

[NW-Bound]

Several writers have made this observation. I remember reading Asimov's take on how civilizations have 'always' come and gone twenty years ago too.

No 'superpower' civilization has ever lasted forever. Though one seems to be poised to revive itself...China?

But the 250 year hypothesis doesn't hold water, it's simply not correct.

• Roman Empire 27BC - 1453AD
• Greek Empire 800BC - 600AD
• Ancient Egypt 3150BC - 30BC
• Chinese Empire 221BC - 1912AD
• Mayans 2000BC - 1540AD
• United States 1776AD -
• and many others

So the US may have a few years left...

Interesting, but what to do about it - move somewhere else? Best of luck wherever you choose...

The lives of past empires are listed in Glubb's paper as:

Assyria 859-612 B.C. 247
Persia 538-330 B.C. 208 (Cyrus and his descendants)
Greece 331-100 B.C. 231 (Alexander and his successors)
Roman Republic 260-27 B.C. 233
Roman Empire 27 B.C.-A.D. 180 207
Arab Empire A.D. 634-880 246
Mameluke Empire 1250-1517 267
Ottoman Empire 1320-1570 250
Spain 1500-1750 250
Romanov Russia 1682-1916 234
Britain 1700-1950 250

Will the US economic and military power remain superior and be longer lasting? Will it be "different this time"?

I don't know how it will work out. Will I live long enough to know for sure? Probably not, but if it is in a decline, I will see more evidence near the end of my life. And if this forum is still around and if I still remember (two big ifs), I will search for and reopen this thread for further discussions.

 

[Walt34]

I blame the guitar music.

I worked with a guy who quite seriously blamed The Beatles. Said that will inevitably cause the downfall of America.

So Al Qaeda need merely be patient.

 

[growing_older]

I worked with a guy who quite seriously blamed The Beatles. Said that will inevitably cause the downfall of America.

So it's been 50 years since the Beatles. This a very long slow decline they caused. Another 100 or 200 years and the full evil majesty of their effects will be known. Or perhaps something else that happened in those decades (centuries) could be part of the problem.

 

[HFWR]

Are Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift somehow better for society than the Beatles?


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[Walt34]

Are Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift somehow better for society than the Beatles?

I am sure they will accelerate the trend launched by The Beatles.

 

[sengsational]

The difference is now that in "the old days" each empire was essentially isolated (unless it was conquering it's neighbor). Now, in the words of Thomas Friedman, the world is flat. That's just a fancy way to say "This Time It's Different", LOL!

 

[aja8888]

I am sure they will accelerate the trend launched by The Beatles.

We will be saved from all this empire crashing stuff by Facebook...an American Invention.

 

[pb4uski]

Is the American Empire on the Decline?

It certainly sometimes feels that way.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

And for still another view of such "megapolitics," see James Dale Davidson and Sir William Rees-Mogg's book The Great Reckoning. It has a discussion of what they see as 500-year-long epochs. I found it an interesting read, although it's been some 20 years since I read it cover-to-cover.

 

[Onward]

It seems that every generation thinks the next generation is doomed..

Bingo.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

I worked with a guy who quite seriously blamed The Beatles. Said that will inevitably cause the downfall of America.

So Al Qaeda need merely be patient.

Well, apparently they did contribute to the decline and fall of the USSR. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, apparently they did contribute to the decline and fall of the USSR. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

LOL!

 

[Senator]

I think you can look at America’s largest cities and see the decline. These cities are a microcosm of the USA, and will start to foretell the future of all of the USA.

Some cities will rebound, and get another chance. Perhaps like New York in the recent past. Most cities will succumb to crime and eventually fail to provide the basic needs of its population. People than can move out, will. Most cities will fail and become a place where people avoid, business cannot thrive, and police are satisfied to come to the crime scene only after it is safe to do so.

As cities fail, so will America. It will be a long time coming, but faster than most people will realize. Just as populations of lily pads start to take over a pond, once the cycle starts it will go fast. If the lilies double in coverage every 60 days, at some point only half of the pond is covered. 60 days later, the entire pond is covered.

Our populations will be no different that studies on mice. Give a mouse colony an unlimited supply of food, they multiply and eventually have an over populated chaotic existence. Fighting and other unsocial behaviors result. A similar mouse population with a limited supply of food regulates its birth rate and stays in a sort of calm.

 

[rodi]

Thanks for the interesting discussion. This thread is now closed.


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