Let's talk Self Driving Cars again!

[Animorph]

My experience with Autopilot is that I'm very comfortable letting it drive under normal conditions. That's primarily freeway driving. There just aren't a whole lot of weird situations on a freeway. It's not going to suddenly make a hard left turn while traveling on a normal freeway. A construction zone with re-painted temporary lane lines, or a road with faded lane lines can sometimes be a problem. For me too. I've also had good success with FSD stopping for red lights and handling yellow lights. That's pretty fun.

I think one problem with AI accident acceptance will be that autonomous car accidents will be different than human car accidents. Most likely humans will think they could have avoided most of the AI accidents. At the same time AI will probably avoid most human-style accidents. That can be a difficult sell, even if AI has a lower overall accident rate.

Jumping in and suddenly taking over the driving responsibility can be a challenge. First and foremost is that your hands must be on the wheel. That allows you to feel the car turn before you notice it visually, and you know where your hands are on the wheel. Second, your right foot should be over the accelerator pedal. That's a place you should be accustomed to, ready to accelerate or brake with your usual muscle-memory actions. You absolutely should be observing everything around you, as if you were driving the car. With Autopilot I don't worry too much about following the lanes and modulating my speed. I can pay a little extra attention farther down the road and watching traffic. It's much less tiring.

Taking over is easy enough. If I turn the steering wheel (with a little extra effort) the car will stop steering and let me drive. If I hit the brakes Autopilot will fully disable and I'm driving manually. (I can go faster at anytime by hitting the accelerator while Autopilot is still operating).

The problem is if you are thinking "maybe it's just braking a little later than usual", or "it'll move over for that truck that's inches into my lane" or "what will happen if I just let it go". If you're a little late taking over the results might be a little more dramatic than they could have been. That is somewhat a problem with this type of assisted driving, but we've handled quite a few such situations now. The car is also pretty good at moving over if a car is really making a move into your lane.

As an example, lane changes can require some intervention. The car sometimes "freaks out" and aborts a lane change halfway through. Sometimes it seems to be a car in the second lane over. Sometimes it's a fast moving car coming up from behind. Sometimes who knows? If the car tries to abort and I'm sure it is still safe to change lanes I'll just keep the steering wheel from turning us back into the original lane. Something I'm prepared to do and just requires holding the wheel steady.

As far as FSD, if it can avoid crashing into anything, including during left turns, then I can handle the other quirks. Staying current on the Tesla forum will be important to learn what to expect when using it.

[Amethyst]

Yes, it is stressful, even with a careful (basically, scared) teen. That's why I compared driving the SD car to being a driving instructor - but they have separate controls!

The thing is, a teen is still getting used to the whole idea of piloting a heavy machine, where 20 mph suddenly seems veryveryfast. The SD cars are supposed to already know how to drive

Plus, being computers with wheels, their reactions - and thus, their self-corrections - ought to be many times faster than a human's.

Perhaps the sensor technology is the real issue. Nothing can compare with the mechanics of the human eye, hooked to a lifetime of experience in the human brain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Come to think of it, it's kind of like teaching a teenager to drive, That is stressful, you are ready to yell "STOP!", or maybe even grab the wheel if that can help. You are on high alert at all times, needing to second guess what the driver is doing, rather than being confident and understanding what you are doing as a driver. Very stressful! -ERD50

[Amethyst]

Animorph, what has been your experience with low-visibility situations, such as a pop-up heavy rainstorm? These can and do occur on freeways, and cannot always be predicted/avoided.

I either put on flashers and inch along, hoping nobody hits me from behind, or (if I can see well enough) inch my way over to the verge, stop the car, put on flashers and hope nobody hits me before the rain thins out. Neither "solution" is ideal...What does a SD car, with its faster reactions, do?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Animorph My experience with Autopilot is that I'm very comfortable letting it drive under normal conditions. That's primarily freeway driving. There just aren't a whole lot of weird situations on a freeway. .

[dixonge]

Our 2020 Honda CR-V has several Driver Assist features:


Forward Collision Warning
Lane Departure Warning
Collision Mitigation Braking System™
Road Departure Mitigation System
Lane Keeping Assist System
Adaptive Cruise Control


I like that it makes a noise if I am not braking when I get too close to a car in front of me. I like when it gives haptic feedback if I get too close to the edge of the lane I'm in. I've always been impressed with these features. But even with this system, which has never been touted as leading towards autonomous driving, I've had a few surprises.



It is annoying that even when I am changing lanes due to my lane *ending* - if i pass over some stripes the steering wheel sometimes is rather aggressive in trying to keep me back in the lane. On one occasion it applied the brakes enough to pull me out of cruise control! If I use the turn signal, it ignores lane changes (as it should).


I can't imagine a more 'intelligent' aggressive like Tesla's taking over. I don't think I'll still be driving by the time such a thing becomes mainstream.

[JoeWras]

Before the other threads that got closed occurred, we had this one from 2015:
Are you looking forward to self driving cars?

harley opened that thread in response to an article in Wired which came about in a flurry of publicity activity from various component and vehicle manufacturers, many of which targeted 2020 for full self driving vehicles. In reviewing that thread, just about everyone here pumped the brakes on rosy predictions. We were right.

2015 was a year where many advances were made, and for some reason, there was an escalation war in claims by various manufacturers. Many of us engineers saw it for what it was: the publicity department does what the publicity department does.

So here we are in 2021, and advances have been made. They will continue to be made. But this is going to be a long process and I think that realization is coming through to most. Tesla is one thing, and focusing there just closes threads. How about all the other assist features that dixoge mentions above? We are essentially beta testers for all this.

In my view, all these assist features are going to have to work flawlessly before we can think about moving to higher levels of self control. This will happen over the next few years. It is just a step.

I worked my entire damn career as an incrementalist on products. It is generally how development works. Marketing and publicity always touts breakthroughs. The reality is incrementalism.

So this short IEEE (electrical engineering society) article gives a recent view of things. It is a nice little read. Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Cars

Here's an excerpt. The embedded live links to "Nissan" and "Toyota" still work and describe claims by both manufacturers that have, uh, fallen short. They'll probably claim that the assist-features are what they are talking about. Not so fast. I'm surprised the Nissan link is still live, it is directly from their site.

Quote:

Five years ago, several companies including Nissan and Toyota promised self-driving cars in 2020. Lauren Isaac, the Denver-based director of business initiatives at the French self-driving vehicle company EasyMile, says AV hype was “at its peak” back then—and those predictions turned out to be far too rosy. Now, Isaac says, many companies have turned their immediate attention away from developing fully autonomous Level 5 vehicles, which can operate in any conditions. Instead, the companies are focused on Level 4 automation, which refers to fully automated vehicles that operate within very specific geographical areas or weather conditions.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound When will SDC be ready? Maybe not Tesla, but Waymo already is, I don't know. However, Waymo system is expensive and perhaps they don't even know the real price in production yet.

I thought Waymo was going to reach unrestricted Level 5 (current Tesla FSD is Level 2?), but I’m not so sure anymore. As good as their system is, it relies heavily on almost perfect weather, clearly marked roadways/signs and highly detailed and controlled mapping - that probably won’t be achievable everywhere. Their system may roll out in discrete areas, large metros, and be true Level 5 - a good finite geographic area business but not “anywhere” Level 5 like Tesla, Cruise, Mobileye, Comma.AI and others.

I’m looking forward to Level 5 but there are endless edge cases and exceptions. We’ll get there but the last obstacles, a tiny few noted in the OP, are probably beyond our full comprehension unless you’re an actual AI expert (vs enthusiast). 80% of Level 5 is relatively easy compared to the last 19% - we’ll never have 100% perfect Level 5 with humans...

Just read that Tesla is scrapping the highly touted FSD 8.3, and broader rollout delayed for 9.0 in April?

And to my knowledge, none of the Level 5 developers are confronting severe weather (ice, snow, heavy rain, etc.) - a well known barrier. It would take highly detailed mapping and more consistent road markings to overcome - requiring significantly more capacity and CPU time. Today’s systems would pull the car over when it can’t “see” - acceptable?

I see the exact same issues are surfacing in this thread (years later), so we’re doomed to plow the same ground again. Sigh. How many accidents are OK? Is there a practical driver attention threshold? Is advanced driver assist enough, better than Level 5? Involuntary guinea pigs? Basically arguing Schopenhauer over and over and over...

https://youtu.be/zYZTF-ohQKU

[braumeister]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack As good as their system is, it relies heavily on almost perfect weather, clearly marked roadways/signs and highly detailed and controlled mapping - that probably won’t be achievable everywhere

They still don't fly, either. Another broken promise!

[Aerides]

I think we're a ways off from true auto-pilot driving (10 years?) and along the way there will be lots more stops and starts, and exploding articles and back tracking with every accident.

But I also think by the end of my life it will be the norm.

[donheff]

I like my Lexus adaptive cruise control and hope for more and better as the years go by. It's a PITA to keep the car at a steady speed for long periods on the highway. The cruise handles that well although it is easy to lose track of the fact that you have gotten behind a vehicle that is too slow. I assume the Tesla can change lanes of its own volition in that situation. I will be glad to see that capability become ubiquitous. I'm not holding my breath for these systems to handle the types of situations ERD outlined. For many years we will need to be attentive if we want high level performance. If the systems are overly cautious though, they may soon be good enough for unattended safety.

[Amethyst]

I agree, the same issues surface, yet to me that is not really bad. Shows we are paying attention; interested in even small advances. I learn something from each thread.

I'm not informed enough to know if SDC are at the 80% point, but it sounds plausible.

The question is, how close to the unattainable 100% would most people willing to accept, and what specific functionalities and levels of performance does that acceptable threshhold entail? Any recent assessments out there?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I I’m looking forward to Level 5 but there are endless edge cases and exceptions. We’ll get there but the last obstacles, a tiny few noted in the OP, are probably beyond our full comprehension unless you’re an actual AI expert (vs enthusiast). 80% of Level 5 is relatively easy compared to the last 19% - we’ll never have 100% perfect Level 5 with humans... Just read that Tesla is scrapping the highly touted FSD 8.3, and broader rollout delayed for 9.0 in April? And to my knowledge, none of the Level 5 developers are confronting severe weather (ice, snow, heavy rain, etc.) - a well known barrier. It would take highly detailed mapping and more consistent road markings to overcome - requiring significantly more capacity and CPU time. Today’s systems would pull the car over when it can’t “see” - acceptable? I see the exact same issues are surfacing in this thread (years later), so we’re doomed to plow the same ground again. Sigh. How many accidents are OK? Is there a practical driver attention threshold? Is advanced driver assist enough, better than Level 5? Involuntary guinea pigs? Basically arguing Schopenhauer over and over and over... https://youtu.be/zYZTF-ohQKU

[JoeWras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst The question is, how close to the unattainable 100% would most people willing to accept, and what specific functionalities and levels of performance does that acceptable threshhold entail? Any recent assessments out there?

The 100% safety is something that airlines have to fight too. However, airlines have an important advantage: professional, trained, operators and heavy regulation. This helps put the public at ease.

It is my opinion that for the public to really accept SDC, regulations and infrastructure need to be improved. I'm not sure the public will accept an anything-goes attitude from manufacturers. Some standards and testing will have to be created, with the vehicles passing these tests. That's one step. I believe another step toward SDC is improved infrastructure. Start with SDC approved roads that have proper markings and maybe even supplemental guidance systems along the road for tough weather. In other words, per "level 4," we'll start with certain roads or areas.

I also think the industry would be wise to introduce it with professional operators as backup. I'm thinking the trucking industry. This would be much like the air travel industry. Prove it works with trained, professionals as back-up in case manual control is required.

All the dreaming and pontificating is fun right now. Let Elon be Elon. He pushes the limits. But Elon will also have to pass some tests and regulations.

Right now, Cowboy-Wild-West won't instill confidence in the majority of the public. The industry needs to do better now, including realistic expections, else they suffer years or decades of delay due to mistrust.

[Amethyst]

Your arguments seem particularly germane to the idea of SDC being a boon to people who have had to give up driving, yet want to stay mobile. They (we?) are bound to be a fearful, cautious group of customers.

Maybe I am just not listening/watching the right things - but I really don't see as much discussion of SDC as I'd expect. If you go to the Tesla forum, you hear from Tesla owners and fans. But in general, the country behaves as if SDC are still science fiction.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeWras Right now, Cowboy-Wild-West won't instill confidence in the majority of the public. The industry needs to do better now, including realistic expections, else they suffer years or decades of delay due to mistrust.

[Whisper66]

Thanks for reopening this area for discussion. I occasionally browse discussions like this to gage the status of the technology. The main take away for me has been and continues to be ... When I see a Tesla on the road, I avoid being anywhere near it. I don't want to be near one when a driver, lulled into letting the car manage the trip by "autopilot", allows his/her Tesla to make some erratic move that costs me or my family their lives. One day this technology may be ready for prime time. It doesn't appear to be there yet.

[JoeWras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst Maybe I am just not listening/watching the right things - but I really don't see as much discussion of SDC as I'd expect. If you go to the Tesla forum, you hear from Tesla owners and fans. But in general, the country behaves as if SDC are still science fiction.

That's kind of what I'm talking about. The mistrust is already bubbling. There was so much optimism 5 years ago due to lofty claims made by some manufacturers and highly publicized trials like Waymo.

Then... nothing happened. Well, nothing we can see. I'm sure a ton of data has been collected which will move things forward.

But outwardly, it appears promises have already been broken and this ticks people off.

Oh, and of course the media had pandemic and politics they'd rather to discuss because those make for more advertiser engagement.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whisper66 Thanks for reopening this area for discussion. I occasionally browse discussions like this to gage the status of the technology. The main take away for me has been and continues to be ... When I see a Tesla on the road, I avoid being anywhere near it. I don't want to be near one when a driver, lulled into letting the car manage the trip by "autopilot", allows his/her Tesla to make some erratic move that costs me or my family their lives. One day this technology may be ready for prime time. It doesn't appear to be there yet.

I wonder how many times you’ve been driving right next to a car (or a semi) using Mobileye, Cruise or Comma 2? Or how many times you’ve been right next to a drunk, high, distracted and/or angry driver? And the Tesla autopilot is hardly any different than the driver assistance systems on any newer make/model cars - that you're driving next to.

Tesla FSD is an added cost option, that only some percentage of buyers add, and that system is not a hands free system. The beta FSD package is limited to a very small group of drivers, and it has driver monitoring - Tesla has already taken the beta FSD away from drivers caught not paying sufficient attention.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst The question is, how close to the unattainable 100% would most people willing to accept, and what specific functionalities and levels of performance does that acceptable threshhold entail? Any recent assessments out there?

There will have to be substantially lower rates of accidents/fatalities before acceptance is even a possibility. The NHSTA says 93% of accidents stem from human error, other studies in the UK and USA report 90-99% attributed to human error. If autonomous driving can dramatically reduce human error accidents/fatalities - we’ll all want (or be forced) to reconsider eventually provided the systems are affordable.

It’s probably a long way off, but there may come a time where it’s illegal to operate a car manually in some area dominated by autonomous cars because manually operated cars have proven far more dangerous. But for those of you bristle at the idea, don’t worry, that may not be in the lifetime of most members here. If autonomous cars do prove 10x safer for example, insurance for manually operated cars could become prohibitively expensive...

There was a time when landlines were common and smartphones didn’t exist, not anymore. We haven’t always had PCs or thr internet, now they’re ubiquitous. There was a time when horses moved people and goods on land, not anymore. Before the Industrial Revolution 80% of Americans were engaged in farming, now it’s less than 1% and we waste tons of food. Most people vociferously didn’t believe those changes would happen, they refuse to try to see the future...

[Whisper66]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I wonder how many times you’ve been driving right next to a car (or a semi) using Mobileye, Cruise or Comma 2? Or how many times you’ve been right next to a drunk, high, distracted and/or angry driver? And the Tesla autopilot is hardly any different than the driver assistance systems on any newer make/model cars - that you're driving next to.

Who knows... but whenever I know I'm driving next to a car / driver I feel is potentially dangerous, I move away from them. Drunk, highly distracted, angry drivers are often easily recognizable examples. Tesla cars are also easily recognizable. When Tesla gets the technology right, I will be comfortable driving around them. That time is not now.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I wonder how many times you’ve been driving right next to a car (or a semi) using Mobileye, Cruise or Comma 2? Or how many times you’ve been right next to a drunk, high, distracted and/or angry driver? And the Tesla autopilot is hardly any different than the driver assistance systems on any newer make/model cars - that you're driving next to. Tesla FSD is an added cost option, that only some percentage of buyers add, and that system is not a hands free system. The beta FSD package is limited to a very small group of drivers, and it has driver monitoring - Tesla has already taken the beta FSD away from drivers caught not paying sufficient attention.

+1

In my logging days I knew a guy who owned a logging company including semi trucks hauling logs. One night he was called by the state police after his truck was pulled over. The officer told him his driver was going 65mph straight down the highway, he was pulled over for an equipment check because he had taillights out. When the officer approached the cab the driver didn't answer, he opened the cab and the driver was passed out drunk.

What's it take, like 5 minutes, for them to approach the vehicle? 65mph to passed out drunk in a couple minutes. This was in the 70s surely nothing like that happens today. Because?

[foxfirev5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dixonge Our 2020 Honda CR-V has several Driver Assist features: Forward Collision Warning Lane Departure Warning Collision Mitigation Braking System™ Road Departure Mitigation System Lane Keeping Assist System Adaptive Cruise Control I like that it makes a noise if I am not braking when I get too close to a car in front of me. I like when it gives haptic feedback if I get too close to the edge of the lane I'm in. I've always been impressed with these features. But even with this system, which has never been touted as leading towards autonomous driving, I've had a few surprises. It is annoying that even when I am changing lanes due to my lane *ending* - if i pass over some stripes the steering wheel sometimes is rather aggressive in trying to keep me back in the lane. On one occasion it applied the brakes enough to pull me out of cruise control! If I use the turn signal, it ignores lane changes (as it should). I can't imagine a more 'intelligent' aggressive like Tesla's taking over. I don't think I'll still be driving by the time such a thing becomes mainstream.

Just bought a 2021 RAV4 with these features. Last year I rented one in SE Fla and the lane/road departure features drove me nuts. I turned those off. DW said maybe it's because I'm a bad driver. As well, driving here in Michigan with potholes the driver is constantly making adjustments. The beeping is actually a distraction so the lane features are disabled. The adaptive cruise and braking worked good and are adjustable for sensitivity.

At 65 yo this is probably the last of my technological advances in cars. DW's Lexus is 17 yo but will serve only as a backup.

I doubt I'll be around long enough for an autonomous self driving car that does not need a licensed driver. By then it will probably be a pickup service of some kind. I'll let the kids and GK's deal with that.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst Maybe I am just not listening/watching the right things - but I really don't see as much discussion of SDC as I'd expect. If you go to the Tesla forum, you hear from Tesla owners and fans. But in general, the country behaves as if SDC are still science fiction.

They’re all over YouTube, that’s where I see a lot of it. I watch way more YouTube more than broadcast TV, but I know lots of folks still think YouTube is just cat videos and other nonsense.