Let's talk Self Driving Cars again!

[braumeister]

Apple is still in the game.

Apple's fleet of self-driving vehicles roaming the streets of California for testing now includes 69 vehicles and 92 drivers, according to information from the California Department of Motor Vehicles

https://www.macrumors.com/2021/08/03/apple-expands-fleet-of-self-driving-cars/

 

[dixonge]

Tesla under investigation:

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/16/1028...investigating-tesla-over-its-autopilot-system

Evidently they keep hitting emergency vehicles...

 

[ERD50]

Tesla under investigation:

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/16/1028...investigating-tesla-over-its-autopilot-system

Evidently they keep hitting emergency vehicles...

Interesting - I wish they would have provided some sort of comparison. Is this better/worse than w/o FSD/Autopilot/whatever-they-call-it engaged?

But I think that would take some data on what % of miles are driven in that mode, to differentiate human driver vs assisted. But Tesla has that data I think?

-ERD50

 

[pb4uski]

Did any of you see the piece on 60 Minutes last night on self-driving trucks (big semi rigs)? Very interesting piece.

 

[retire-early]

Did any of you see the piece on 60 Minutes last night on self-driving trucks (big semi rigs)? Very interesting piece.

I watched a bit of it.

I am in awe how far they have progressed.

 

[TriumphTR3fan]

There’s a YouTube channel “Wham Bam Tesla Cam” that features clips recorded by drivers that activated the Sentry system in the car. There’s many types of events but the most interesting are the accidents or near misses. Many show other drivers driving terribly & causing crashes. There are some that drivers have the Autopilot system activated & avoiding crashes due to the negligence of others. One particularly gripping event recorded an Oregon State trooper (in an SUV patrol vehicle not a Tesla) deliberately hitting a wrong way driver on I-84 in eastern Oregon near Ontario. It took great skill & bravery to stop that driver. The Tesla driver caught nearly all of it with the Sentry system. The cameras all record & you can watch them individually. There are also some photos showing the aftermath. Events like that remind me of how impactful SDC could be. Preventing these kinds of incidents is the goal of SDC.

 

[Midpack]

Sandy’s upset…not partisan/political.

 

[ERD50]

Sandy’s upset…not partisan/political.
...

I saw a bit of that earlier, couldn't really follow his train of thought. The comments are almost all Sandy fans saying "Give 'em hell Sandy!", so it was hard to find any analysis/explanation.

So after you posted it, I copied the transcript (noting his correction of fires/crashes), and I'm lost.

He starts talking about fire w/o any context at all.

the results basically tell me that um
04:40
that
04:40
something dramatic must have happened in
04:43
order to get these types of fires
04:47
okay and and i don't think that people
04:50
with a normal range of intelligence
04:54
could possibly make these things happen

He thinks people are doing things to start Teslas on fire? I suppose some of the fires may have happened after a crash and some stupid driving, is that what he means? I don't know.

Then he seems to be in conspiracy mode, the investigations are all about shutting down Tesla?

edit/add:

so tesla brings this stuff out talking
05:27
about how much safer it's going to be
05:30
for self-driving
05:32
and then
05:34
the same day
05:37
nishta
05:38
decides they're going to investigate
05:41
tesla
05:43
for car fires
05:47
is that is that a coincidence
05:50
what do you think boys and girls
05:52
do you think we're getting our legs
05:54
pulled

And he makes the logic judgement error that many make, that just because SDC have the potential to save lives, that means they will. He seems to be wanting to give them a green light on everything, just because their intentions are good? Ends justifies the means?

Then goes on about the number of fires in ICE - another logic error, you can't compare pure numbers because of the great difference in the number of ICE vs BV. And as we know, these lithium fires are much harder to deal with, they require tons of water, and monitoring for cooling for something like 24 hours, to make sure it doesn't start up again?

It certainly could be worthy of investigation if the rates are even close to what ICE cars are, due to that difference in firefighting. So investigate if warranted, then let the the numbers tell the story.

I know he's on youtube doing tear-downs and such, I might have skimmed a few of his videos, but this one leaves me thinking I'll skip any future ones, or at least bring along a large salt shaker.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

What is perplexing is that while Tesla AP can demonstrate good performance, at times it has shown some extremely bad behaviors such as ramming parked cars. Even the current FSD V9.2 is still disregarding road barricades, plus large obstacles on the road!

The following video shows the car about to run over a road barricade when the beta tester took over at 4:40. If you slow down the video to watch the path the car was projecting, you will see that for an instant it was thinking it could squeeze the car through a gap in the barricade that no vehicle could go through.

It's quite bizarre!

The car also exhibited some other instances of poor driving, in just a 13-minute drive in an easy road condition. I will let you watch the video to see for yourself.

By the way, Musk just tweeted that FSD Beta V10 would be released in a month to all car owners who bought this feature. That shows quite a confidence. I am looking forward to this release.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's the most recent video uploaded by the same beta tester, Frenchie, on 8/24.

In a short drive of 16 minutes, on nearly deserted city streets, he had to intervene numerous times, including one when the car was headed straight towards a steel pillar.

The fact that Tesla system does not recognize steel pillars has been seen before, in an earlier video that I linked on V9 FSD. I do not remember if it was the same beta tester, or another one in a different city.

PS. I found it. The earlier video was linked on post #240 of this thread, and taken by a beta tester in Seattle.

 

[ERD50]

What is perplexing is that while Tesla AP can demonstrate good performance, at times it has shown some extremely bad behaviors such as ramming parked cars. Even the current FSD V9.2 is still disregarding road barricades, plus large obstacles on the road! ....

Thanks, I get distracted following the downtown Chicago sites I know.

So many disengagements. He mentioned GPS might have been off - I think I've observed that problem, lots of shading and maybe multi-path with those tall buildings and bridges.overpasses in downtown.

But separate from the obvious stuff, like not seeing a steel pillar or a barricade, the FSD has an odd combination of cautious and aggressive. Before I go further, before any of the forum FSD fans get upset, I better say it is still impressive what it can do, and yes, I know, it's 'beta' - but the gaps! OMG!

On the cautious side, it appears (maybe camera angle?) to stop pretty far behind the car ahead of it. And then (usually) takes some time to get going. As he mentioned at one point, the driver behind him was getting aggravated. Another time, it seemed to wait for a pedestrian on the far side of the intersection to get most (all?) of the way through before proceeding - the car to the left I'm sure was wondering when he was going to go. A human would see she was making progress, and time it to have plenty of time to slow down after being almost all the way through the intersection.

But many other times, it seems to do a rolling stop, one time so much that the driver reported it, he said it was 'kind of a roll'? That was barely slowing down, doesn't the FSD know to stop for a stop sign? And it didn't know to slow down for a speed bump?

And when that other car made a sharp left across the Tesla's lane, he had to intervene, and then complained about other drivers. Yes, the other driver was at fault. But I honestly think that when I'd be driving downtown, in that moderate traffic, I'd probably see some bad behavior from other drivers like that at least every couple minutes. You stay on your toes, react, and deal with it. Or don't drive downtown. It's not an outlier scenario - it's exactly the scenario that FSD fans tout about saving lives.

And the earlier rant from Sandy Munro, he says:

01:16
um he let me
01:18
sit in his car and drive around
01:21
when i was in that car
01:23
we were in city streets
01:26
and we were making 60 and 120 degree
01:29
turns now that doesn't mean much to
01:32
anyone here but at slow speeds under 40
01:36
miles an hour
01:38
and
01:39
and
01:40
under normal driving conditions
01:43
making a 60 degree or 120 degree
01:46
left or right hand turn is really a big
01:49
deal
01:50
it it really truly proves that you have
01:53
something that's ai
01:55
artificial intelligence
01:57
there was no problem at all with the
02:00
tesla vehicles that i drove

I just expect that these are things that will take many years to improve to the point of letting the driver ignore the road.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

there was no problem at all with the tesla vehicles that I drove...

That's what impressionable laymen tend to think.

Now, I liked Munro, and he may be very knowledgeable about the mechanics of cars and how they are built, but what does he know about AI or self-driving technology?

I have not been inside a Tesla once in my life, FSD or not. But just searching Youtube for some info let me know a lot more about the state of the art in self-driving cars, what they can do and still cannot do, than taking a single ride in any of these demo cars.

It's amazing how people can be so naive, but then what is new?

By the way, I used to be impressed the most by Waymo systems, but having seen some videos from Mobileye, it really opened my eyes to what other competitors are doing. In case people forget, Mobileye is the company that built for Tesla its first self-driving system, before Tesla broke off and started to develop its own system. Mobileye has been brought out by Intel, and is the supplier of driver assistance systems installed in many current cars. The simple lane-keeping and forward collision avoidance in my GM car is from Mobileye.

Maybe I will share some more videos later, but do not want to spoonfeed info. People who are really interested in this technology can go look for themselves.

 

[Chuckanut]

It seems that Mercedes has beat Tesla in the goal to get a hands free driving system approved for use. Germany has approved the Mercedes system with some interesting restrictions:

Use on the Autobahns only
At speeds less than 37 mph (60kph)

It's a start.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedes-beats-tesla-hands-free-driving-highways

The automaker got the go-ahead to sell its Drive Pilot package for use on stretches of the country’s Autobahn network at a speed of up to 60 kph (37 mph).

The system was approved for Level 3 autonomous driving, a notch higher than Tesla's Level 2 Autopilot system, and will allow a drivers to take their hands off the wheel in slow-moving traffic.

 

[rodi]

It seems that Mercedes has beat Tesla in the goal to get a hands free driving system approved for use. Germany has approved the Mercedes system with some interesting restrictions:

Use on the Autobahns only
At speeds less than 37 mph (60kph)

It's a start.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedes-beats-tesla-hands-free-driving-highways

Ok, I'll bite... does anyone drive on the autobahns at less than 60kph? From my limited experience that is *only* when entering or exiting the autobahn - the moving speed is somewhere in excess of 100kph.

 

[braumeister]

Ok, I'll bite... does anyone drive on the autobahns at less than 60kph? From my limited experience that is *only* when entering or exiting the autobahn - the moving speed is somewhere in excess of 100kph.

That's an excellent point.
From what I know, the "recommended" top speed on the autobahn is 130 kph (80 mph) although there are sections without a limit.

I've read that the average speed is about 125 kph, so this self-driving feature will most likely only be used in urban areas where the speed limits are much lower.

 

[JoeWras]

This is how it is going to roll out. One small step at a time. Over decades.

 

[Midpack]

This is how it is going to roll out. One small step at a time. Over decades.

No one would ever drive 37 mph on the autobahn so I’m not sure how it’s a step. But I’m sure I’m missing something, we’ll see.

 

[ERD50]

Ok, I'll bite... does anyone drive on the autobahns at less than 60kph? From my limited experience that is *only* when entering or exiting the autobahn - the moving speed is somewhere in excess of 100kph.

That's an excellent point.
From what I know, the "recommended" top speed on the autobahn is 130 kph (80 mph) although there are sections without a limit.

I've read that the average speed is about 125 kph, so this self-driving feature will most likely only be used in urban areas where the speed limits are much lower.

No one would ever drive 37 mph on the autobahn so I’m not sure how it’s a step. But I’m sure I’m missing something, we’ll see.

The answer to this was right in the post:

Quote:
The automaker got the go-ahead to sell its Drive Pilot package for use on stretches of the country’s Autobahn network at a speed of up to 60 kph (37 mph).

The system was approved for Level 3 autonomous driving, a notch higher than Tesla's Level 2 Autopilot system, and will allow a drivers to take their hands off the wheel in slow-moving traffic.

I'd imagine that the autobahn is occasionally subjected to the same back-ups that we see here in the US on highways with 55 to 75 mph speed limits. Sometimes you are stuck in traffic at < 35 mph for a long time. It would be nice to be able to relax and not worry about bumping into the car ahead, or leaving a gap for someone to jump ahead of you.

This is how it is going to roll out. One small step at a time. Over decades.

Right, one step. Makes perfect sense.

-ERD50

 

[Old Microbiologist]

It is interesting. I have an EQS on order. I wonder what the "upgrade" will cost? For example, the rear wheel turning feature as standard is included for 4.5 degrees. But the upgrade to 10-degree turning is a $3000 option and is only a matter of turning on a feature already built into the software. I am assuming this will be hackable eventually. This is a wonderful but insanely expensive car. Here, with the Edition One package and several other options like leather, it is almost $200k. The screen upgrade to 17 inches is $10k. Germans come here to Hungary to buy as it is about 10% less expensive. But the others are similarly priced although the Tesla S is about $30k less. My significant other didn't like the interior design of any of the Teslas and thinks a car costing $150k or more should be luxurious and not less nice than our current Passat. I also run a test using ChargeMap route planning for each of the cars and the EQS does better than the Tesla. I do a route from our home to Istanbul and only have to charge 3 times with the EQS but the Tesla is 6 times and all the others like the BMW or Audi's are 8 or 9 charges.

I do think the Tesla system is better. Often the roads here are worn and the road edges are not distinct. The Tesla system sees this but none of the others including my Passat. It turns off the road assist without warning when it loses sight of the edge of the road and is usually in a turn when it happens. The 37 kph limit makes sense (sort of) as every time I travel in Germany the route has numerous repairs going on. I drove to Bremen and had 47 repair zones in Germany. Most are moving slower than 37 kph. I will add I lived in Germany and this repair thing is "normal" and constantly under repair. I lived near Kaiserslautern and the main Autobahn there was always under repair constantly it just moves a few km down the road each month and when they get to the end they go back and do it all over again on a roughly 3-year cycle. I assume this is some kind of "make work" program or perhaps government corruption. The roads are fine and don't need the repairs at least not that frequently. These are concrete highways and very thick. They are built to serve as runways in wartime (yes still).

The funny thing is my 2015 Passat already has this feature and it works perfectly. It came standard on the car as did lane assist etc. But it yells at me if I take my hands off the wheel for more than 30 seconds even though it is doing its job fine. The lane assist feature works so well the car thinks I am asleep and shakes the steering wheel and warns me to wake up. This is on a 6-year-old car. The stop and go combined with lane assist works excellent in city traffic as well which never gets above 37 kph either especially in Vienna or Budapest.

 

[JoeWras]

Flaggers are gonna have to do better.

Recently, we were in rural NC and ran into a temporary 1-way road controlled by flaggers. I should have taken a picture. The situation was so obtuse it was hard for two of us to understand.

Basically, the flagger decided to plop himself down in the middle of the road, at in intersection, and try to control 4 way traffic. He also surrounded himself with about 10 traffic cones. His flipping of the stop/slow sign sometimes resulted in oblique angles. He also was controlling the cross traffic with eye contact and a swing of his head.

Ultimately, we went through based on an oblique view of "slow", a nod of his head, and maneuvering the vehicle through a chicane of sorts around the flagger, and then half driving on the dirt shoulder.

This kind of thing won't go away quickly in rural areas. Traffic departments don't have funds to set up fancy two-way communication devices to SD vehicles (which is one proposal I've seen for this problem). At least not anytime soon.

That's why I still see the SDVs rolling out in phases over the decades. Eventually, even rural flaggers will have the equipment and drug tests required to run it.

 

[Pellice]

I just expect that these are things that will take many years to improve to the point of letting the driver ignore the road.

-ERD50

This is how it is going to roll out. One small step at a time. Over decades. - JOE WRAS

I really did think the technology was more advanced than it was. I no longer expect to ever be in a car with the steering wheel removed.

Even the features of my lanekeeping, etc. car are problematic for me. I DO NOT KNOW WHERE TO PUT MY HANDS OR FEET. It takes more strength and strain and energy to partially hold the hands off the steering wheel than it does just to plop them down and use them. I cannot find a comfortable place to rest my foot that feels like I can reach the brake or the accelerator as quickly as I can when my foot is on one or the other. Maybe it's just me.

 

[Midpack]

Flaggers are gonna have to do better.

Recently, we were in rural NC and ran into a temporary 1-way road controlled by flaggers. I should have taken a picture. The situation was so obtuse it was hard for two of us to understand.

Basically, the flagger decided to plop himself down in the middle of the road, at in intersection, and try to control 4 way traffic. He also surrounded himself with about 10 traffic cones. His flipping of the stop/slow sign sometimes resulted in oblique angles. He also was controlling the cross traffic with eye contact and a swing of his head.

Ultimately, we went through based on an oblique view of "slow", a nod of his head, and maneuvering the vehicle through a chicane of sorts around the flagger, and then half driving on the dirt shoulder.

This kind of thing won't go away quickly in rural areas. Traffic departments don't have funds to set up fancy two-way communication devices to SD vehicles (which is one proposal I've seen for this problem). At least not anytime soon.

That's why I still see the SDVs rolling out in phases over the decades. Eventually, even rural flaggers will have the equipment and drug tests required to run it.

There are so many unusual driving situations human drivers have to think through (most pretty easily) I wonder how SD software will deal with those non uniform conditions. I suspect both sides, SD cars and construction, may have to give some.

And I’ve still not seen any SD examples dealing with heavy rain, snow and ice - realities for millions of drivers. Maybe I missed it though.

And I think no steering wheel is WAY off in the future, that would require zero interventions? Or will roadside assistance become, move my paralyzed SD car to a spot it can handle again? Maybe SD cars will have (rarely used) joysticks to manually slowly move cars away from obstacles? Who knows.

I wonder how many more pothole damaged rims and tires we’ll have with SD? Will the software ever be able to handle that? I believe we’ll have FSD eventually, hard to say when, I just hope it’s before the state has to take my drivers license away…

 

[Koolau]

I picture a slow phase in of SDCs in which certain sections of roads would be authorized for their use. Such roads would at least start out as limited access highways with well maintained surfaces and especially carefully maintained lane markings. Sort of the walk before you run concept for self driving. A few million miles of experience on such highways would help software designers tweak things for more "complicated" driving experiences.

The vestige of dinosaur DNA in me still makes me think we'll never really eliminate the driver's direct input - though I see a time when SDCs CAN be integrated into overall safety improvement. YMMV

 

[Chuckanut]

We went from a few seconds of powered flight in an airplane to landing a man on the moon in 66 years. A bit less than the average life time of a person born in the mid twentieth century.

I imagine self driving cars may take less than 66 years. But, who knows for sure? Building an airplane must be child's play compared to building an artificial human brain for one's car.

 

[ERD50]

I picture a slow phase in of SDCs in which certain sections of roads would be authorized for their use. Such roads would at least start out as limited access highways with well maintained surfaces and especially carefully maintained lane markings. Sort of the walk before you run concept for self driving. A few million miles of experience on such highways would help software designers tweak things for more "complicated" driving experiences.

The vestige of dinosaur DNA in me still makes me think we'll never really eliminate the driver's direct input - though I see a time when SDCs CAN be integrated into overall safety improvement. YMMV

I think I mentioned something along these lines way back, but different.

My thoughts were, big rigs would have the FSD capability, and it's use would be limited to certain highways at certain times (mainly weather related). But they would share the road with other vehicles.

Big rigs make sense, they cost a lot, and run many more miles/year than most cars. So the FSD investment would be smaller percent-wise and per-mile-wise. And it must be hard for a long haul driver to maintain attention, so being able to rest for long stretches would be a big help.

-ERD50