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longevity graphic from FiveThirtyEight
09-23-2015, 03:26 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Bernalillo, NM
Posts: 2,717
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longevity graphic from FiveThirtyEight
Nothing anyone here doesn't know, just an entertaining graphic.
Years You Have Left to Live, Probably | FlowingData
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"There never is shortage of the gullible to accept the illogical"...Anonymous
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09-23-2015, 03:30 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,674
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 Quote:
For men, it's 76 years and 5 months.
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About 5 more years before I reach the tipping point. I'd better start spending more...
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Part-Owner of Texas
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx
In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
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09-23-2015, 04:43 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,941
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About 12 more years for me before I "might" beat the average. The individual data points were dropping to fast for me to see the one with my name on it. 
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09-23-2015, 05:38 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Yes, they surely drop like flies. 
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"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-23-2015, 05:57 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 5,214
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It looks like anybody over 80 years old can go tomorrow...
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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09-23-2015, 06:22 PM
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#6
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 969
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So, just taking my age and gender into account, I have the same probability of dying in less than ten years as I do living another 50 or more.
An accurate expiration date that I could read now would make retirement planning so much easier.
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09-23-2015, 06:27 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cooksburg,PA
Posts: 1,874
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The graphic is a great way of focusing on the inevitable.
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Free to canoe
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09-23-2015, 07:02 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Western US
Posts: 1,214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolChange
So, just taking my age and gender into account, I have the same probability of dying in less than ten years as I do living another 50 or more.
An accurate expiration date that I could read now would make retirement planning so much easier.
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Probability brings cold comfort (oops) -
Using something called the Gompertz Law of human mortality, your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years.
So the expiration date looks something like this -
not too helpful. The best we can do is try to beat the odds. 
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09-24-2015, 07:16 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,331
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Great graphic. Those balls really start dropping in your mid 80s.
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Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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09-24-2015, 08:02 AM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
Great graphic. Those balls really start dropping in your mid 80s.
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Looks like they bounce a little higher though 
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09-24-2015, 08:55 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,183
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Looking on the optimistic side . . . the data do not account for the fact that life expectancy at age 65 has been increasing by about a year per decade (a trend that has held for a long time and is even slightly accelerating). Also, if you are an educated non-smoker who cares about your health, that has got to help a little ;-)
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09-24-2015, 12:19 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,941
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer
Looking on the optimistic side . . . the data do not account for the fact that life expectancy at age 65 has been increasing by about a year per decade (a trend that has held for a long time and is even slightly accelerating). Also, if you are an educated non-smoker who cares about your health, that has got to help a little ;-)
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I'm educated (well somewhat) quit smoking well over 30 years ago, (still miss it) reasonably care about my health, both of my parent are still living and in their early 90's, great grandfather lived past 100, etc. However I'm a high energy person and I tend to burn the candle at both ends, so to speak. The aches and pains are accumulating and I seriously doubt that I'll beat the averages. But I'm not about to intentionally slow down now just so "maybe" I can have a few more years. No doubt, father time is slowing me down and he's winning, but I'm still pushing back.
Although modern medicine is getting a lot better, it's to bad that people can't be like one of my older collectible cars and simply spend a few months "in a shop" getting a full internal and external restoration. Heck even a major tune-up would be nice.
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09-24-2015, 01:24 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,384
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yeah, I saw this yesterday. Unfortunately, it's giving me the same odds for 20-29 years as it is for 30-39 years where the peaks are. Pretty wide window. Just hope I got my Dad's genes - he made it to 91 1/2. Or one of his brothers and one of his sisters, both of which made it to 94. The rest of them made it to their mid 80's
Big-Papa
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09-24-2015, 01:51 PM
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#14
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,346
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Just to see what would happen I ran it up as far as it would go - 116. A steady rain of balls with the occasional outlier to 117.
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