More Doom and Gloom

[retire@40]

Flu pandemic could kill half million in U.S.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=4&u=/nm/20050624/ts_nm/health_flu_dc

Between WMD, the Flu, traffic accidents, and all the other threats to mankind, I'm surprised any of us make it past 40.

 

[Michael]

Someone up there must want us around for a bit longer.

 

[Groovy]

15 years ahead of its time...

Just barely made it past 40 myself. I'm hoping to stick around quite a while longer.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow - thanks for finding this!

I had some old buddies who were convinced that the original SARS was it, and would cause untold suffering and major economic displacements. And then H1N1 was “it”.

It took a while for the “real” pandemic to show up. And, no, it hasn’t been fun.

I see the original link is no good.

I see NBC still has the story. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna8344700

 

[Groovy]

Thanks for the link. I sometimes skim through various old-timers' threads on here, just to try to get a sense of their journey over the past ~20 years. That's how I happened upon this thread, and just thought the predicted death number was striking. Sorry for the downer. Don't mean to obsess over COVID.

I see NBC still has the story. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna8344700

EDIT: Typo

 

[jimbee]

I was too slow with the link.

 

[audreyh1]

Thanks for the link. I sometimes skim through various old-timers' threads on here, just to try to get a sense of their journey over the past ~20 years. That's how I happened upon this thread, and just thought the predicted death number was striking. Sorry for the downer. Don't mean to obsess over COVID.

I didn’t see it as a downer.

A pandemic on that scale really happened.

 

[Groovy]

I didn’t see it as a downer.

A pandemic on that scale really happened.

It happened (is happening). And we hear about it and/or see the effects of it every single day. I'm sure we all want to move past this, and get back to some sense of "normal" soon, and not have to live in the COVID-obsessed "pause" that we seem to be living in. (No political commentary intended, nor requested.) That's what makes it a downer.

 

[audreyh1]

It’s just the way it is. And returning to normal will take as long as it takes. I think trying to rush things is what gets people upset or into trouble.

 

[OldShooter]

Not a downer. In 2008 I was in a 3-day FEMA Incident Command System (ICS-300) class with various emergency responders, fire agencies, etc. and was a little surprised to meet a several-person contingent from the state health department. They were training in preparation for dealing with a pandemic. They knew. But no one was listening.

... Between WMD, the Flu, traffic accidents, and all the other threats to mankind, I'm surprised any of us make it past 40.

Actually the thing that amazes me is that with all the hazards that "the government of California" has recognized and insists on warning me about, the state's landscape is not littered with dead bodies.

 

[pacergal]

Yep, every few years, our health dept. would review our pandemic disaster plan response.
This helped get our county vaccine clinics going fairly quickly once it was available, along with planning safe healthcare access for the community.

 

[street]

Thanks for the link. It does seem everything wants us dead from insects to rodents with Lyme disease, hantavirus, west niles virus.

 

[Out of Steam]

Thanks for the link. It does seem everything wants us dead from insects to rodents with Lyme disease, hantavirus, west niles virus.

My own opinion is that systems, both natural and infrastructure, that did well supporting 3 or 4 billion people have become quite brittle under the stresses of supporting almost 8 billion.

Declining birth rates in wealthy and middle-income countries suggest that, at some level, people understand this.

 

[marko]

Thanks for the link. It does seem everything wants us dead from insects to rodents with Lyme disease, hantavirus, west niles virus.

I've posted the following once or twice before, but here it is again:

"Maybe I'm just getting old, but over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 68 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see"

 

[ls99]

Despite all the doom and gloom, the world is not runnning out of people, quiet the contrary. Maybe we need a truly gigantic pandemic to put the brakes on.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

As of a few minutes ago:
Current World Population

7,859,707,976

view all people on 1 page >
Today
Births today
226,120

Deaths today
94,931

Population Growth today
131,189



This year
Births this year
40,892,657

Deaths this year
17,167,718

 

[LRDave]

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 68 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see"

I totally see your point.

As a counterpoint, so says the frog in the pot as the temperature goes up one more degree again.

I puzzle over this a lot - not saying one or the other is "right".

 

[OldShooter]

Despite all the doom and gloom, the world is not runnning out of people, quiet the contrary. Maybe we need a truly gigantic pandemic to put the brakes on. ...

Actually, the brakes are already on. As @Out of Steam points out, the general case is that birth rates fall as women become educated and as families become wealthier. Much of the developed world is now below the replacement rate IIRC 2.1 children per family. The interesting part of the projections is that sub-Saharan Africa will continue to have high growth, but possibly not enough to keep world population from falling. This high growth, however, begs the huge question of whether similar employment growth will also occur. From a recent Economist magazine:

​

Link to the full article here: https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...e-worlds-population-will-peak-at-97bn-in-2064 but you may hit a paywall.

 

[audreyh1]

I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 68 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see"

Well I can’t say that’s true for me for the past year and a half. We had an ill parent which then merged with the pandemic and responsibilities after a parent’s passing, all juggled with COVID precautions which made things far more difficult to manage.

It’s been pretty rough. I look forward to getting back to my “normal” life that included a lot of international travel. I’m not impatient though - I figure another 6 months probably.

 

[Groovy]

Well I can’t say that’s true for me for the past year and a half. We had an ill parent which then merged with the pandemic and responsibilities after a parent’s passing, all juggled with COVID precautions which made things far more difficult to manage.

It’s been pretty rough. I look forward to getting back to my “normal” life that included a lot of international travel. I’m not impatient though - I figure another 6 months probably.

Sorry for your loss and struggles. I'm glad you've got a positive mindset.

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks for the link. It does seem everything wants us dead from insects to rodents with Lyme disease, hantavirus, west niles virus.

Not just things, but some people also want us dead.

 

[Koolau]

Not just things, but some people also want us dead.

As long as you don't actually know them - or especially live with them, you're probably safe, though YMMV.

 

[NW-Bound]

As long as you don't actually know them - or especially live with them, you're probably safe, though YMMV.

That's according to the old statistics, but I have seen more random killings recently. Our mileage has all changed, or shortened.

 

[Hermit]

Thanks for the link. It does seem everything wants us dead from insects to rodents with Lyme disease, hantavirus, west niles virus.

You forgot the Terminators that will be spawned by Tesla cars in 2040! (Did I get that right?)

 

[marko]

As long as you don't actually know them - or especially live with them, you're probably safe, though YMMV.

DW, who was about 75 feet away from the Boston Marathon bombings, would strongly disagree.
I also lost a co-worker on 9-11.
FWIW

That's according to the old statistics, but I have seen more random killings recently. Our mileage has all changed, or shortened.

Agree.