National home builders report - housing trends

[aja8888]

New home builders are reporting cancellations and sales issues as mortgage rates rise. Buyers are backing out and not moving forward with purchases of new homes. This is the latest data.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/15/h...new-house-buyers-plunges-cancellations-spike/

Homebuilder sentiment dives 8th month in a row, their stocks are down 19% to 36% YTD despite blistering summer rally.

“Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

The confidence of builders of single-family houses, after the second-biggest plunge in the data last month, fell again in August, the eighth month in a row of declines, having gone downhill every month this year, “as elevated interest rates, ongoing supply chain problems, and high home prices continue to exacerbate housing affordability challenges,” according to the NAHB.

With today’s index value of 49, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now back where it had been in June 2014, and below where it had been in April 2006, at the eve of the Housing Bust.

 

[Koolau]

Housing usually turns on a dime. I wonder what this will do to existing house values and especially to rental markets. Interesting times - again.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Not a surprise. Not at all.

 

[W2R]

I am so glad that I want to stay put in my Dream Home! Even with this type of great and interesting information available, predicting what housing will actually do is almost as tough as predicting what the NYSE will do (for me, anyway).

Good luck to those who are planning to buy or sell. I'll just sit over here by the sidelines, happily in my Dream Home, and watch.....

 

[braumeister]

I am so glad that I want to stay put in my Dream Home!

I've always liked this quote from one of my neighbors. When we moved in, he welcomed us and commented "The only way I'll ever move from here is with a toe tag attached."

He's 88 now, doing well for his age, and still feels the same. His best friend (living across the street at the time) was the same way, and he only left when he lost his mobility at age 96. Definitely inspirational to me.

 

[finnski1]

I've always liked this quote from one of my neighbors. When we moved in, he welcomed us and commented "The only way I'll ever move from here is with a toe tag attached."

He's 88 now, doing well for his age, and still feels the same. His best friend (living across the street at the time) was the same way, and he only left when he lost his mobility at age 96. Definitely inspirational to me.

Awesome. I have been using the same line ever since I designed and built our house 24 years ago. Am still only 63 so hope to keep using that line for a long time to come.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I've always liked this quote from one of my neighbors. When we moved in, he welcomed us and commented "The only way I'll ever move from here is with a toe tag attached."

He's 88 now, doing well for his age, and still feels the same. His best friend (living across the street at the time) was the same way, and he only left when he lost his mobility at age 96. Definitely inspirational to me.

This was the primary search criteria we used for our current home. I am rapidly approaching 50 years old and have zero desire to EVER move again. Both my parents died in their last home (they built it in their mid 40s and planned to die there) and because of the wide doors/single story/etc, they were able to age gracefully in that home. The only downside to our house is the yard is fairly large and as we age, we will have to spend more money having other people deal with the upkeep. There is also a pool, but when the time comes...it'll be filled in.

 

[Chuckanut]

I am so glad that I want to stay put in my Dream Home! Even with this type of great and interesting information available, predicting what housing will actually do is almost as tough as predicting what the NYSE will do (for me, anyway).

Good luck to those who are planning to buy or sell. I'll just sit over here by the sidelines, happily in my Dream Home, and watch.....

You are almost off the high end of the Gloat-O-meter. You might wish to check your blood pressure for safety's sake.

 

[W2R]

You are almost off the high end of the Gloat-O-meter. You might wish to check your blood pressure for safety's sake.

I'm sorry if it seemed like I was gloating!

The part that you don't know about, is that my Dream Home is pretty much just an average, middle of the road, small 1960's house in a suburb. If you drove by it, you wouldn't think it was anything special (see below). To me it is, but I doubt it would be special to anybody else. According to realtor dot com, it's only worth 85% of the median home price in the US.

If that was a gloat, it's not because of my home - - it's because I managed to finally figure out what I really wanted more than anything else, and could afford. That has really improved my life. Anybody here could do the same. For anyone who hasn't, I recommend quiet daily meditation for an hour or so until it is figured out. Then go buy it.

Oh, and after 7 years in my Dream Home, I did find one flaw. It would be really nice if the laundry room was about half a foot wider, so my laundry cart could get past the dryer to the washer. But, I can slide the plastic laundry basket over the top of the dryer to get it over there, so it's do-able if not perfect. Or, I could get a smaller dryer but I don't wanna.

 

[W2R]

I've always liked this quote from one of my neighbors. When we moved in, he welcomed us and commented "The only way I'll ever move from here is with a toe tag attached."

He's 88 now, doing well for his age, and still feels the same. His best friend (living across the street at the time) was the same way, and he only left when he lost his mobility at age 96. Definitely inspirational to me.

I like his attitude!

For me, there'd be two ways I'll ever move from here. Either the aforesaid toe tag, or else if Frank decides to move. As long as we are happy together, I'm all into the "whither thou goest, I will go" mentality. But so far, he says he'll never move.

 

[Rianne]

When we bought our house in 2012, I had buyer's remorse. Floorplan, location, we were under the gun to buy b/c our house sold in MI quickly.

After, a full remodel, knocking out walls, bathrooms, kitchen, and adding a full sunroom it is a different house. Worth the spend. I never thought I'd want to stay in IL. Now water shortages out West. Forest fires and coastal storms are scary. Suddenly the midwest looks pretty good. We have the Great Lakes and plenty of drive-to vacation options. We like our neighbors and our immediate family is nearby. I thought "ok" I'm good.

 

[Chuckanut]

I'm sorry if it seemed like I was gloating!

Not to worry. The Gloat-O-Meter is unbiased and non judgemental. I've pegged it a few times myself.

You seem to found your own Nirvana. Who is anybody else to argue?

A bit more on topic....

One of my kids left our area for several reasons, the most important one being she wanted to buy her own home. Even with the Bank of Daddy helping out that would be impossible here. So she left and in less than 6 months became a home-owner. Her hard work and some help from the Bank of Daddy got her a nice home.

The price of gas may be coming down and new EV buyers may be getting a healthy subsidy, but I have to wonder about housing prices (buying and renting) and food prices. It's the Economy, Stupid may still make a comeback.

 

[Teacher Terry]

W2R, I knew you weren’t gloating). Like you I have found my happy place in my 833 sq ft condo. My son completely remodeled it and I love it. I have the best view in the entire complex because I am on the top floor away from the pool with a view of the courtyard which is green with mature trees. No one can see onto my balcony because I am on the end and a big tree keeps me shaded. I also have very few people walking by my condo in the hallway and no one next to me on either side.

My friends that live in the building are jealous. I have my morning coffee outside daily. When the complex was built in 1978 they made all the rules to discourage kids and as a result we have very few. No playing on the grass, no dogs in the courtyard, no riding bikes, etc. As a result the courtyard is empty and beautiful to look at with no noise.

 

[Chuckanut]

Here’s one idea for building housing cheaper.

https://www.boxabl-homes.com/boxable-homes/

“Casita Tiny Home Cost

Casita Boxable is being offered completely furnished for $49,500 USD. All you need is a foundation on which to park it, and then you’ll need to connect it to local utilities (this does not include the cost of your property or site preparation).

The apartments are very energy efficient, requiring a considerably smaller air conditioning system than a typical house. They employ a high R-value insulation, a tight construction envelope, and little thermal bridging, which results in a monthly power bill of about $28.

Attention: Plumbing, electrical, and HVAC systems are all factory-installed in your Boxable. Utilities are easily connected on-site to the Boxable’s outside corner. You may configure utilities in any way you like on your site. Whether it’s a water tank or solar panels, they’ll link to the Boxable in the same manner as conventional utilities do.

If you’ve always desired a 30-year mortgage, the projected financing cost for the Boxable room module is $250 USD each month, and they will link you with financial partners for loan alternatives if desired.”

 

[Koolau]

Here’s one idea for building housing cheaper.

https://www.boxabl-homes.com/boxable-homes/

“Casita Tiny Home Cost

Casita Boxable is being offered completely furnished for $49,500 USD. All you need is a foundation on which to park it, and then you’ll need to connect it to local utilities (this does not include the cost of your property or site preparation).

The apartments are very energy efficient, requiring a considerably smaller air conditioning system than a typical house. They employ a high R-value insulation, a tight construction envelope, and little thermal bridging, which results in a monthly power bill of about $28.

Attention: Plumbing, electrical, and HVAC systems are all factory-installed in your Boxable. Utilities are easily connected on-site to the Boxable’s outside corner. You may configure utilities in any way you like on your site. Whether it’s a water tank or solar panels, they’ll link to the Boxable in the same manner as conventional utilities do.

If you’ve always desired a 30-year mortgage, the projected financing cost for the Boxable room module is $250 USD each month, and they will link you with financial partners for loan alternatives if desired.”

This reminds me of the "modular" housing craze of the early 70s. I toured such a project and even considered buying there as a young person with my first real j*b. Financially, it was "easy" to get in while it was difficult to buy a "real" house. Fortunately, my j*b provided enough money to eventually buy a house. But then I watched the modular project go up only to become "low-cost" housing and then a slum which was torn down. All this in less than 40 years (dirt to dirt.) The concept is enticing but I hope they have w*rked out the "people" issues by now. YMMV

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

This reminds me of the "modular" housing craze of the early 70s. I toured such a project and even considered buying there as a young person with my first real j*b. Financially, it was "easy" to get in while it was difficult to buy a "real" house. Fortunately, my j*b provided enough money to eventually buy a house. But then I watched the modular project go up only to become "low-cost" housing and then a slum which was torn down. All this in less than 40 years (dirt to dirt.) The concept is enticing but I hope they have w*rked out the "people" issues by now. YMMV

Kinda like the "Lustron House" that was sold from 1947-1950. They built/shipped/erected about 2500 of them before going out of business. My parents lived in one many years ago and like many others, is still around today.

Oh and this might be somewhat interesting. The "unboxing" of the Boxable Casita.

 

[Koolau]

Kinda like the "Lustron House" that was sold from 1947-1950. They built/shipped/erected about 2500 of them before going out of business. My parents lived in one many years ago and like many others, is still around today.

Couldn't get to that site but I'm assuming Lustron houses were more like National Homes which sold a million houses - many (most?) of which are still standing.

I think the issue with the modulars that I watched go up, decline and then come down, all in little more than a generation, was that they were marketed to folks who really couldn't deal with home ownership for what ever reasons. They seemed like an answer to the wrong question. Eventually they became rentals, then slums. Sad to watch what seemed a great idea come to an ignoble end. YMMV

 

[Music Lover]

I've always liked this quote from one of my neighbors. When we moved in, he welcomed us and commented "The only way I'll ever move from here is with a toe tag attached."

He's 88 now, doing well for his age, and still feels the same. His best friend (living across the street at the time) was the same way, and he only left when he lost his mobility at age 96. Definitely inspirational to me.

I guess that works for some people if they plan on leaving an estate to an heir. But since I don't have any kids dying of old age in my house as a matter of principle doesn't really appeal to me. Either I spend the money, someone else spends the money, or the government spends the money.

I'm tentatively considering selling my house in 5 or so years when I reach 65, depending on the market and maybe a couple other factors. We can live in an inexpensive apartment, spend summer at the 3-season lake house and winter somewhere warm.