Next hurricane headed toward LA/MISS?

RAE said:
Well, the storm surge from Laura was less than projected, that is true. But if you happened to live in Lake Charles, LA, I doubt that you would be saying right now that Laura was not all that bad. That town (population over 72,000) suffered severe damage, as I'm sure you've seen from the post-storm media coverage. Recovery will take many months, probably years.

The other thing is that Laura and Sally are different storms. Laura was a fast-mover, and rapidly moved northward, lessening the rainfall amounts in any one area. Sally is projected to be a much slower-mover. If it stalls out near the coast, some areas may get 20"+ of rain. I doubt that most people are prepared for something like that. You may recall what happened to Houston when Hurricane Harvey hit that area in 2017.........another slow-moving storm.
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Harvey gave us over 50" of rain.
 
audreyh1 said:
Laura was 150 mph sustained winds at landfall which is pretty darn close to a Cat 5 which starts at 157 mph. That prediction of possibly a Cat 5 seems quite reasonable. Laura intensified super rapidly in the last 24 hours.
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Yep. Hurricane Michael, in 2018, is another storm that was not predicted to be all that strong until maybe 24-36 hours before landfall. Then, it underwent rapid intensification, and hit the Florida Panhandle as a Cat. 5 hurricane. If you have driven through the Panhandle since then (especially around Mexico Beach, FL), you've seen what a Cat. 5 hurricane can do.

So sometimes it is wise to pay close attention to the latest NHC forecasts for these storms, and take them seriously.
 
aja8888 said:
Harvey gave us over 50" of rain.
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Yeah, that's insane - and a good example of how much rain a very slow-moving storm can drop in any given area, if it basically just sits there for a few days and spins around. Let's hope Sally does not result in rainfall amounts anything like that.
 
audreyh1 said:
Laura was 150 mph sustained winds at landfall which is pretty darn close to a Cat 5 which starts at 157 mph. That prediction of possibly a Cat 5 seems quite reasonable. Laura intensified super rapidly in the last 24 hours.
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LOL. People still defending the ever-cataclysmic predictions. I'm sure all the predictions were "reasonable", but Cat 5, "record storm surge" and "unsurvivable storm surge" never happened.
 
RAE said:
Yep. Hurricane Michael, in 2018, is another storm that was not predicted to be all that strong until maybe 24-36 hours before landfall. Then, it underwent rapid intensification, and hit the Florida Panhandle as a Cat. 5 hurricane. If you have driven through the Panhandle since then (especially around Mexico Beach, FL), you've seen what a Cat. 5 hurricane can do.

So sometimes it is wise to pay close attention to the latest NHC forecasts for these storms, and take them seriously.
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Michael's landfall was reported as Cat 4. Subsequently it was "upgraded" to a Cat 5, barely, as a result of some post-analysis. Never heard of that happening until that storm

It was a Cat 5, barely, for an hour.

Storms can strengthen quickly. They can also weaken suddenly.
 
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Montecfo said:
LOL. People still defending the ever-cataclysmic predictions. I'm sure all the predictions were "reasonable", but Cat 5, "record storm surge" and "unsurvivable storm surge" never happened.
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I don't recall the NHC predicting a Cat. 5 hurricane for Laura before landfall. Where did you get that information? Some of the models may have suggested it could get close to Cat. 5 (which it did), but I don't think NHC used that language in any of their guidance that I saw. NHC did project it to be a major hurricane, which is certainly was.
 
Montecfo said:
Michael's landfall was reported as Cat 4. Subsequently it was "upgraded" to a Cat 5, barely, as a result of some post-analysis. Never heard of that happening until that storm

It was a Cat 5, barely, for an hour.

Storms can strengthen quickly. They can also weaken suddenly.
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Almost all hurricanes weaken at landfall (at least the winds), as I assume you know. Heavy rainfall can continue for a long time after landfall, however, especially with a slow-moving storm.
 
NHC predictions are that Sally will be a Category 1 and it might even be be headed for Mississippi instead of New Orleans. This would put us on the "good side" of the hurricane. Sally is expected to be mostly a rain event for us. We are (hopefully) protected from storm surge by the levee system which was repaired and strengthened after Katrina.

We decided not to evacuate and are just taking care of last minute preparations. I'm doing laundry right now, and plan to pick up my routine prescriptions in about an hour. Then I'll be done and will just wait for Sally.

It's not even raining here, yet, and there is no wind at all right now. We are supposed to feel the first effects of Sally later today or tonight.
 
RAE said:
I don't recall the NHC predicting a Cat. 5 hurricane for Laura before landfall. Where did you get that information? Some of the models may have suggested it could get close to Cat. 5 (which it did), but I don't think NHC used that language in any of their guidance that I saw. NHC did project it to be a major hurricane, which is certainly was.
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Not sure. But of course I never said the NHC predicted it. But plenty of weather sources did. Like this example.


https://www.12newsnow.com/video/weather/hurricane/4-pm-update-monstrous-laura-could-become-category-5-by-landfall/289-ec57d939-a324-4717-9664-3633cb2de7f5
 
RAE said:
Almost all hurricanes weaken at landfall (at least the winds), as I assume you know. Heavy rainfall can continue for a long time after landfall, however, especially with a slow-moving storm.
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Im not referring to weakening at landfall. I'm referring to weakening prior to landfall. Katrina was a Cat 5 but made landfall as a Cat 3. So did Rita.

Hurricane Marco weakened before making landfall as a TS last month.

Hurricanes strengthen but sometimes they weaken.
 
W2R said:
NHC predictions are that Sally will be a Category 1 and it might even be be headed for Mississippi instead of New Orleans. This would put us on the "good side" of the hurricane. Sally is expected to be mostly a rain event for us. We are (hopefully) protected from storm surge by the levee system which was repaired and strengthened after Katrina.

We decided not to evacuate and are just taking care of last minute preparations. I'm doing laundry right now, and plan to pick up my routine prescriptions in about an hour. Then I'll be done and will just wait for Sally.

It's not even raining here, yet, and there is no wind at all right now. We are supposed to feel the first effects of Sally later today or tonight.
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Finished my laundry, got my prescriptions, and now it looks like (now) Hurricane Sally is going to nail Mississippi. So sad for Mississippi! We don't wish a hurricane on anybody although it is a big relief for us.

The best hurricane forecaster here (a retired TV weatherman) says in his blog, "I repeat, IF the latest NHC track forecast proves correct, All of SE LA will see very little impact from Tropical Storm Sally. "
 
Montecfo said:
Im not referring to weakening at landfall. I'm referring to weakening prior to landfall. Katrina was a Cat 5 but made landfall as a Cat 3. So did Rita.

Hurricane Marco weakened before making landfall as a TS last month.

Hurricanes strengthen but sometimes they weaken.
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CAT 3, 4, or 5 or whatever....if you are "in" one, it's all bad. Us folks on the Gulf Coast are especially worried about all of them. And if the wind don't get ya, how about 53" of rain!
 
Looks like projected path is turning East - right toward our place just West of Pensacola. I guess we'll get to see if our rebuild after Ivan in 2004 is any more hurricane resistant than it was before. The building code was certainly made more stringent (and expensive to comply with)...
 
aja8888 said:
CAT 3, 4, or 5 or whatever....if you are "in" one, it's all bad. Us folks on the Gulf Coast are especially worried about all of them. And if the wind don't get ya, how about 53" of rain!
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I suggest nothing different. I just note that the same dire warnings with each storm wear a bit thin and probably hurt preparedness.

And of course this present one is now a hurricane although now they are saying it could be a 3.

But the more important point I think is NO is now pretty much off the table.
 
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New Orleans is not even in the cone any more!!!

Figures, I just finished all my last minute hurricane preps. :LOL:
 
Hope it stays that way for you... So far, you guys have been super lucky this season...
 
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W2R said:
New Orleans is not even in the cone any more!!!

Figures, I just finished all my last minute hurricane preps. :LOL:
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Yeah, I've still got a plastic storage box of water in the tub. It was intended to fill the toilets when Douglas hit - which it didn't! So far, too lazy to use for it's intended purpose. But I hate to just dump 20 gallons of water down the drain.

So glad to hear you are out of the "cone." God protect the Gulf States!
 
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Montecfo said:
Not sure. But of course I never said the NHC predicted it. But plenty of weather sources did. Like this example.


https://www.12newsnow.com/video/wea...fall/289-ec57d939-a324-4717-9664-3633cb2de7f5
Click to expand...


OK, so you were mixing forecasts from different sources when you said "Cat 5" and "unsurvivable storm surge". I thought that was probably the case. You can find all sorts of different forecasts for tropical storms if you look hard enough, but the official one that most people pay most attention to comes from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
 
Montecfo said:
I suggest nothing different. I just note that the same dire warnings with each storm wear a bit thin and probably hurt preparedness.
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You're not going to change anything squawking about it here, and your comments about this are wearing quite a bit thin. You made your point, and I don't necessarily disagree with it, but how about moving on?
 
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Montecfo said:
I just note that the same dire warnings with each storm wear a bit thin and probably hurt preparedness..
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I've lived in FL for over 30 years and that sort of thing is rare if true at all. Live here long enough and you either get smacked or super lucky. Are there twits who think that way? Perhaps, a handful. There are twits everywhere.

A Ca 1 tore off half our roof shingles, broke a window, and downed a tree on the house, leaving the whole area with no power for a week or more. Any hurricane, 75mph or 175mph can ruin your day, or your month.

Even those that haven't actually been in a direct hit have lived here for a least a handful of dry runs, and tropical storms, and are more than happy to take down our shutters and put the plants back on the patio, with no damage to show for it besides a few trees going sideways. They've met friends and neighbors who can tell them even a low-ranked storm is no joke.

I am not staying in any house for a Cat5, which means I might evacuate prematurely, and see the storm downgrade or change course after I leave for a few days, but so be it, far better than the alternative.
 
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