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Next hurricane headed toward LA/MISS?
Old 09-12-2020, 01:01 PM   #1
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Next hurricane headed toward LA/MISS?

Folks (and W2R, especially) - make sure you check the latest tropical storms warnings/watches today if you live anywhere from Central Louisiana eastward to the Fla. Panhandle. The next hurricane, which doesn't even have a name yet, is headed to somewhere along the northern Gulf coast. Looks like this one could be a slow-mover, which means someone is going to get a while lot of rain, probably.



More info. here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents
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Old 09-12-2020, 01:16 PM   #2
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Update - the storm now has a name - Sally.
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Old 09-12-2020, 01:17 PM   #3
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Well for W2R's sake, they had predicted both Marco and Laura would hit New Orleans too.... Marco fizzed out and Laura went in to the west ~200 miles.... Maybe her luck will hold out!


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Old 09-12-2020, 07:00 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
Well for W2R's sake, they had predicted both Marco and Laura would hit New Orleans too.... Marco fizzed out and Laura went in to the west ~200 miles.... Maybe her luck will hold out!



Perhaps, but with less than 48 hours before landfall now, somebody is going to get hit hard by this storm. If I lived in places like New Orleans or Gulfport, MS, though, I would be watching this very, very closely, and making plans to evacuate tomorrow if necessary. Waiting until the last minute before making these kinds of decisions is usually not a great idea.
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Old 09-12-2020, 07:59 PM   #5
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Oh! Thanks for the heads up. I hadn't said much because I have been so concerned with the Oregon wildfires (my DD lives in a suburb of Portland and has lung issues, so the smoke is especially difficult for her). Plus, I have been setting up and configuring my brand new incredibly spiffy laptop computer, so I haven't spent much time here. I had been watching, though, and posted about it somewhere (I think in the "this weather is awful" thread?) saying we are under a hurricane watch even though Sally isn't a hurricane yet. Is that an aggravating turn of events or what.

I was up all night last night until 5 AM this morning listening to a 7-8 hour long livestream on not-yet-Sally, with forecasters, model output, and so on. Frank, of course, is uninterested since he was born here and has seen it all.

We plan to give it another day or so, to see what Sally will do. If her northward turn continues to move further and further to the east of us, we'll be on the "good side" of Sally and may only get halfway clobbered instead of the full treatment. But then who knows. Models tell us that Sally will hit New Orleans on Tuesday. Time to wait until we know more. I doubt we will evacuate, but if we do we will probably leave around 3 AM Monday. That's our usual timing and we have always been able to go 55 mph or faster the whole way. It doesn't pay to leave before counterflow, or after the sun comes up.

It's been dark and pouring rain all day, here.
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Old 09-13-2020, 12:01 AM   #6
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Good luck W2R.
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Old 09-13-2020, 04:49 AM   #7
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Waiting for Douglas back in July led to a feeling of helplessness. It's one of those "You can't run, you can't hide and you can't make it stop." situations. Fortunately, it was a near miss. Let's hope Sally misses W2R's area.
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:24 AM   #8
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NHC uses some pretty strong language in their latest update. Doesn't sound too good, this one is gaining strength as it approaches the LA/MISS coastline.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected
, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.
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Old 09-13-2020, 08:24 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE View Post
NHC uses some pretty strong language in their latest update. Doesn't sound too good, this one is gaining strength as it approaches the LA/MISS coastline.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected
, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.
Sounds like a lesser version of Hurricane Laura developing.
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Old 09-13-2020, 08:43 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
Sounds like a lesser version of Hurricane Laura developing.

I'm not sure about lesser. A Cat. 2 hurricane that dumps 20"+ of rain in some areas is going to be pretty devastating for someone, from the looks of it right now.
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Old 09-13-2020, 09:43 AM   #11
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Those of us who live up north may never have had to prepare for a hurricane, but trust me, Frank and I have and it isn't our first rodeo. That said, we aren't thrilled.

Naturally coverage of Sally has been 24/7 down here on just about every radio/TV/internet broadcast in existence, and has been for days and days. Sally is expected to get here as a Category 1, or maybe Cat 2 hurricane. I have been through several Cat 1's and they are awful.

Did any of you know about Cat 1 hurricane Cindy, which made a direct hit here just two months before Katrina? Cindy scared me silly and knocked down over half the huge oak trees on my block. The sounds of them falling (boom! boom!) was terrifying. Katrina got the rest of the trees later in 2005.

The last time we had to evacuate was 2012, for Hurricane Isaac which I suppose some may not even remember by now. Isaac was supposed to be Katrina II and officials pleaded with us to go. But it wasn't, and that time the only repairs I needed were new carpet and drywall. This time (for Sally), there are no mandatory or even voluntary evacuations suggested so far, except for more vulnerable locations like Grand Isle.

My DD in Portland posted this morning that AQ in her suburb is over 500. I can't even imagine that. It's 25 here this morning. So I guess that's a tiny silver lining for us.
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Old 09-13-2020, 09:52 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by W2R View Post
The last time we had to evacuate was 2012, for Hurricane Isaac which I suppose some may not even remember by now. Isaac was supposed to be Katrina II and officials pleaded with us to go. But it wasn't, and that time the only repairs I needed were new carpet and drywall.


That would freak me out. You are correct - most of us just don't understand....
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Old 09-13-2020, 10:15 AM   #13
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We are lucky because:

(1) we are within the New Orleans levee system, which is supposed to have been "hardened" after Katrina so that it will protect us from storm surge to a greater extent than before. That said, New Orleans is a giant soup bowl that fills up with rain water during storms. We have an amazing pumping system but even our pumps cannot keep up with long periods of heavy rainfall. Sally is predicted to be primarily a rainfall event for us; time will tell.

(2) my Dream Home and Frank's house next door, are both in FEMA flood zone X which is as good as it gets here. My other house was in flood zone AE which is still considered to be really good (here), but not as good as X.

We both had our roofs repaired for minor leaks recently, and our roofer said we'll both be ready for new roofs in about 2 years. Some might say, "oh goodie, you could get a free roof out of this storm". I don't like using insurance for that sort of standard maintenance! I have never done it because it seems dishonest to me. If our roofs get damaged we will have to think really hard about what is the right and fair thing to do.
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Old 09-13-2020, 12:26 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE View Post
NHC uses some pretty strong language in their latest update. Doesn't sound too good, this one is gaining strength as it approaches the LA/MISS coastline.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected
, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.
It sounds very familiar. Like similar to what they seem to say about all gulf storms these days. This is a tropical storm expected to make landfall as a Cat 1.
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Old 09-13-2020, 12:55 PM   #15
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We both had our roofs repaired for minor leaks recently, and our roofer said we'll both be ready for new roofs in about 2 years. Some might say, "oh goodie, you could get a free roof out of this storm". I don't like using insurance for that sort of standard maintenance! I have never done it because it seems dishonest to me. If our roofs get damaged we will have to think really hard about what is the right and fair thing to do.
W2R, surprisingly, that's what insurance is for...the damage caused by an event you have no control over. I would bet your insurance company will prorate the cost of the roof where you would be paying for the "depreciated" portion and they would cover the rest.

Most roof claims are not full replacement cost anymore, but prorated. Check your policy.

And in two years when you need a new roof, and replace it, tell your carrier and then next policy period will start the prorate again.
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Old 09-13-2020, 12:57 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by RAE View Post
I'm not sure about lesser. A Cat. 2 hurricane that dumps 20"+ of rain in some areas is going to be pretty devastating for someone, from the looks of it right now.
Agree, was not understating the severity of the storm - just effectively stating a Cat 4 vs. Cat 2 concept.
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Old 09-13-2020, 01:13 PM   #17
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For those interested in following this stuff, here is the main hurricane site: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ It includes links to all the probability maps.

For the real weather junkies: https://maps.redcross.org/website/We...C_Weather.html

(Incidentally, the Red Cross is stretched totally thin right now with all the disasters and many of us unable to deploy because of the COVID risk. If you have a local Red Cross chapter, I'd encourage you to offer any time you may have. Local things, like helpers at bloodmobiles, are also stretched due to deployments. So you can help without leaving home.)
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Old 09-13-2020, 01:38 PM   #18
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I'm not sure about lesser. A Cat. 2 hurricane that dumps 20"+ of rain in some areas is going to be pretty devastating for someone, from the looks of it right now.
Of course the dire predictions regarding Laura did not materialize. No "record" or "unsurvivable" storm surge.

Let's see about Tropical Storm Sally. If it's path is east of NO that would portend less loss I urge everyone potentially affected to prepare appropriately.
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Old 09-13-2020, 02:11 PM   #19
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W2R, surprisingly, that's what insurance is for...the damage caused by an event you have no control over. I would bet your insurance company will prorate the cost of the roof where you would be paying for the "depreciated" portion and they would cover the rest.

Most roof claims are not full replacement cost anymore, but prorated. Check your policy.

And in two years when you need a new roof, and replace it, tell your carrier and then next policy period will start the prorate again.
Oh good! I would feel fine about getting a prorated reimbursement. I just didn't want to be a jerk and claim the entire cost of the new roof, when I would have needed one in two years anyway.

Thanks! I did not know that.
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Old 09-13-2020, 02:23 PM   #20
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Of course the dire predictions regarding Laura did not materialize. No "record" or "unsurvivable" storm surge..
Well, the storm surge from Laura was less than projected, that is true. But if you happened to live in Lake Charles, LA, I doubt that you would be saying right now that Laura was not all that bad. That town (population over 72,000) suffered severe damage, as I'm sure you've seen from the post-storm media coverage. Recovery will take many months, probably years.

The other thing is that Laura and Sally are different storms. Laura was a fast-mover, and rapidly moved northward, lessening the rainfall amounts in any one area. Sally is projected to be a much slower-mover. If it stalls out near the coast, some areas may get 20"+ of rain. I doubt that most people are prepared for something like that. You may recall what happened to Houston when Hurricane Harvey hit that area in 2017.........another slow-moving storm.
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