Oil Spill -- Non-Legal Issues

EllisWyatt said:
Yesterday, BP told Congress the size of the exploration target at the MC 252 well - 50 MM(million) barrels.
Click to expand...

Do you know if that is 50 MMbbls in place or recoverable? The economics would be mighty slim if that figure is in place.
 
Not sure; will assume for sake of arguement that it was recoverable. That was BP's pre-drill estimate. I assume, once again, it was based on volumetrics. Knowing that BP uses a version of the Pete Rose probabalistic methodology for reserve estimates, that the number was either a most likely case or P50 case.
Even assuming is was recoverable, the economics would have been slim but positive; if in-place numbers, even with a strong water drive, it would have been extremely marginal considering cost of a SS completion and flowline.
 
EllisWyatt said:
Not sure; will assume for sake of arguement that it was recoverable. That was BP's pre-drill estimate. I assume, once again, it was based on volumetrics. Knowing that BP uses a version of the Pete Rose probabalistic methodology for reserve estimates, that the number was either a most likely case or P50 case.
Even assuming is was recoverable, the economics would have been slim but positive; if in-place numbers, even with a strong water drive, it would have been extremely marginal considering cost of a SS completion and flowline.
Click to expand...

Agreed, I did some quick "Back of the envelope" calcs. I don't have BP's price deck, but let's assume it's $60 oil. If 50 MMbbls were recoverable, that's $3b not discounted. If they got 30% oil recovery, that would be $1b.

An interesting thought, since I live in the completion world. Almost all deepwater wells have downhole sand control. BP is praying for this thing to sand up. A change in deepwater sand control philosophy?
 
I am no geologist or oil professional but when I looked up the description of a batholith it puzzled me that someone would think that they would encounter that here. We have such rock in my world where there have been gaseous volcanic flows but I see no sign of such activity in the Gulf. Batholith volcanic flows are very porous as a result of holes left volcanic gasses that were entrained until the flow cooled.

There is natural oil seepage in the Gulf. Some crude deposits found on FL beaches was chemically different that what is comming out of the spill field, for example.
 
I think they took a calculated risk that backfired. No one knows how to plug this pipe. All the standard safety precautions are based on containment down there at the site before the fact because intervention from the surface is so problematic!

Imagine the effect of this well blowing itself out. That would be my guess as to the most likely outcome. BP would never agree to a $20 billion escrow fund unless they felt that the exposure was many times that amount. 50 million barrels of pollution!

Possibly $100 billion of reparations...
 
Sounds like they were using the same kind of risk management assumptions as the investment banks.
 
TromboneAl said:
Here's another example of stupidity of news media. In the second half of this video:

Ask CBS News: Could Oil Spill Lead to Terrorism? - CBS News Video

The reporter says that drilling platforms are not a likely target because they are:


  • Isolated
  • Far from shore
  • In Deep water
  • Easy to Protect

I don't see any of those as a deterrent. A fast boat full of terrorists and/or explosives and you're all set.

I'm not saying that they are a significant target, but for someone to say that they can't be attacked because they are in deep water is silly. Most boats float fine in deep water.
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I agree that oil rigs would be relatively easy targets for terrorism. But I don't think they are particularly attractive targets. Most of the time the BOP would work even if the rig were suddenly gone. It would not be a good day for the people on board or the company that lost the rig. But in terms of impact I think it would get a big yawn.

"Easy to protect" is perplexing. I have no doubt that most rigs have a decent amount of firepower on hand and radar to warn of approaching boats. But that does not help much if the bad guys sneak up with a fiberglass boat filled with amfo.
 
Ok, here's a question for the geologists out there:

Petroleum is decomposed organic matter from long ago. In that area it is from the Permian I believe, around 200 MYA but is very old in any event.

Naturally occurring organic matter can be accurately dated by measuring the ratio of radioactive carbon 14 to carbon 12 (not radioactive). The halflife is of order 6000 years.

So, the carbon in petroleum would seam to me to have had so long to decay that it should be essentially all C-12. Is this the case?

If not, why not?

If so, wouldn't burning fossil fuels be changing the C12/C14 ratio in the atmosphere and provide a highly accurate way to measure the amount of C in the atmosphere from natural sources (cow farts etc) as opposed to from burning oil?

What am I missing here?
 
At the rate this thing is spewing 50MM barrels will flow in less than 3 years. That's a long time to wait, and I don't like the damage it is causing, but if they can recover some decent fraction of it then just letting it flow until it runs out on its own might become a reasonable option.
 
DoingHomework said:
At the rate this thing is spewing 50MM barrels will flow in less than 3 years. That's a long time to wait, and I don't like the damage it is causing, but if they can recover some decent fraction of it then just letting it flow until it runs out on its own might become a reasonable option.
Click to expand...


People seem to forget they are drilling some wells to plug the thing... it just takes some time...

Now, I don't know what Plan C is if those do not work... probably the nuke...
 
Anyone know how they do the lateral drilling on the relief wells
and control the positioning?
 
my 2 cents (since i enjoy talking about this stuff)...take it or leave it.

DoingHomework said:
I agree that oil rigs would be relatively easy targets for terrorism. But I don't think they are particularly attractive targets. Most of the time the BOP would work even if the rig were suddenly gone. It would not be a good day for the people on board or the company that lost the rig. But in terms of impact I think it would get a big yawn.

"Easy to protect" is perplexing. I have no doubt that most rigs have a decent amount of firepower on hand and radar to warn of approaching boats. But that does not help much if the bad guys sneak up with a fiberglass boat filled with amfo.
Click to expand...

when i worked on the rig that is currently over the maconda well, we prepared for such a thing. since there are no guns or weapons (just big pipe wrenches, some rigs don't even allow knives) the plan was to basically lock ourselves in the engine room and let the terrorists take over the rig without our help. a driveoff should trigger the EDS.

DoingHomework said:
Ok, here's a question for the geologists out there:

Petroleum is decomposed organic matter from long ago. In that area it is from the Permian I believe, around 200 MYA but is very old in any event.

Naturally occurring organic matter can be accurately dated by measuring the ratio of radioactive carbon 14 to carbon 12 (not radioactive). The halflife is of order 6000 years.

So, the carbon in petroleum would seam to me to have had so long to decay that it should be essentially all C-12. Is this the case?

If not, why not?

If so, wouldn't burning fossil fuels be changing the C12/C14 ratio in the atmosphere and provide a highly accurate way to measure the amount of C in the atmosphere from natural sources (cow farts etc) as opposed to from burning oil?

What am I missing here?
Click to expand...

it's the complex world of petroleum systems...and not one of my strong suits...but, here are my thoughts. oil and nat gas exist all over the geologic time scale. in the absence of tectonic forces, geologists use the law of superposition, or that the deeper reservoirs are older than the layer/reservoir just above it. add in tectonic forces and these things get split in half, turned upside and everything else. but...let's focus on no tectonic forces. generally speaking, your older (and usually deeper reservoirs) contain natural gas (and their associated liquids). your more shallow reservoirs (like in bakersfield) have the younger, not as mature oil and therefore "heavy" (very dense and very viscous). but to answer your question, every reservoir or field or region has a story. figuring out that story will tell you if there is just gas, heavy oil, oil and gas etc. permain is one time of many. the field i'm working on right now is of miocene age...i don't know enough about the chemistry end of it...

DoingHomework said:
At the rate this thing is spewing 50MM barrels will flow in less than 3 years. That's a long time to wait, and I don't like the damage it is causing, but if they can recover some decent fraction of it then just letting it flow until it runs out on its own might become a reasonable option.
Click to expand...

i assume they reported 50MM recoverable bbls. but it could be more (less likely) or it could be less (more likely, people tend to overestimate). that is, however, most likely assuming more than one well, a completion and reservoir mgmt. Also, production rate tends to decline with time, but that is dependent on the drive mechanism. we'll see. historically, production has a plateau and then eventually it goes on a decline (for varying reasons).

homestead said:
Anyone know how they do the lateral drilling on the relief wells
and control the positioning?
Click to expand...

gyroscopes near the bit. the tool sends small pressure pulses to give data. they can then use their directional drilling tools to make changes (communicate to it through rotating, pump rate and pressure pulses). or a bent sub and motor. they can be fairly accurate. the plan for the relief wells is to get near the maconda well and then frac into it.

what are people's thoughts on a hurricane for part of the clean up? liability/legal issues a side...from a scientific point of view.
 
Imagine the effect of this well blowing itself out. That would be my guess as to the most likely outcome.
Click to expand...

Are you saying that you don't think the relief wells will work?
 
ronocnikral said:
when i worked on the rig that is currently over the maconda well, we prepared for such a thing. since there are no guns or weapons (just big pipe wrenches, some rigs don't even allow knives) the plan was to basically lock ourselves in the engine room and let the terrorists take over the rig without our help. a driveoff should trigger the EDS.
Click to expand...
I'm surprised by this. I'd think a rig would be equipped with some kind of defensive weapons, especially given the recent piracy. I understand a rig would not be too useful to pirate but it is still surprising that no weapons are kept on board.


ronocnikral said:
it's the complex world of petroleum systems...and not one of my strong suits...but, here are my thoughts. oil and nat gas exist all over the geologic time scale. in the absence of tectonic forces, geologists use the law of superposition, or that the deeper reservoirs are older than the layer/reservoir just above it. add in tectonic forces and these things get split in half, turned upside and everything else. but...let's focus on no tectonic forces. generally speaking, your older (and usually deeper reservoirs) contain natural gas (and their associated liquids). your more shallow reservoirs (like in bakersfield) have the younger, not as mature oil and therefore "heavy" (very dense and very viscous). but to answer your question, every reservoir or field or region has a story. figuring out that story will tell you if there is just gas, heavy oil, oil and gas etc. permain is one time of many. the field i'm working on right now is of miocene age...i don't know enough about the chemistry end of it...
Click to expand...
Yeah, I generally understand the geology. I'm just curious about the carbon isotopes involved.


ronocnikral said:
i assume they reported 50MM recoverable bbls. but it could be more (less likely) or it could be less (more likely, people tend to overestimate). that is, however, most likely assuming more than one well, a completion and reservoir mgmt. Also, production rate tends to decline with time, but that is dependent on the drive mechanism. we'll see. historically, production has a plateau and then eventually it goes on a decline (for varying reasons).
Click to expand...
Ok. Leaving it alone to empty into the ocean does not seem like a good plan but if it is only 50 MMB total then we could conceivably have already had 1/4 or so of the oil out. But if it is 50 MMB recoverable that's different.

what are people's thoughts on a hurricane for part of the clean up? liability/legal issues a side...from a scientific point of view.
Click to expand...

A hurricane? I'm certain there will be 1 or 2. They'll cause a mess. The ships will be moved out of the way. The bigger mess is going to be oil blown inland in many areas. There are folks out there with hare-brained yet plausible and science-based ideas for "steering" hurricanes away from critical areas. If ever there were a time to at least try some of these ideas this year might be it! But I doubt anyone is doing that.
 
we always joked the cook is the most dangerous guy on the rig (he has access to knives, as well as putting laxative in the food).
 
Well, they took the cap off after it got bumped by C3PO.

WARNING: I'VE FOUND THAT THIS VIDEO SOMETIMES CRASHES FIREFOX.
bp feeds
 
It looks like this thread may get political as well.

I'm also puzzled that any and all help isn't welcomed, and many regulations aren't waived.

But I think the cleanup is much more unmanageable than people realize. For example statements like this:
This 10-story high [A Whale] ship can remove almost as much oil in a day as has been removed in total -- roughly 500,000 barrels [21 million gallons] of oily water per day...

​
is misleading. The oil is spread out over perhaps 50,000 square miles in patches and streaks. Wanna guess how many gallons of water are in one cubic mile of ocean?

1 cubic mile = 1.10111715 × 1012 US gallons.

IOW it would take about 13 years for the ship to treat one cubic mile of ocean.

And the ship can't zip around like Ms. Pac-man sucking up those strips. It probably requires a few miles just to turn around.

Picture the vents on that ship, and picture a square-mile sheen of oil on the surface. I don't see how it could effectively suck that up.

My point is that it's a myth that with the right management and equipment we could go out there and clean up this mess.
 
T-Al, I'm not sure of your math (I think you or I slipped a decimal place), or your application of it, or the conclusion.

On one hand, I think it's worse than you say. My spreadsheet says 1.1 x 10^12 gallons divided by 21 x 10^6 gallons per day = 52831 days. Divide by 365 days and you get ~143 years, 10x worse than 14 years.

For gallons in a cubic mile, this was a great resource:

HowStuffWorks "How many teaspoons are there in a cubic light year?"

That's also 8.48E+14 teaspoons per cubic mile. ;)

However, oil floats - this thing is called a 'skimmer'. So I don't see cubic mile as applicable - it's not pumping water up from 5,280 feet below the surface.

Maybe it's better to look at it versus the job at hand - the highest estimates I've seen (the top of a very large range) were at 2.5M gallons per day leaking (wiki). So this thing is capable of scooping up ~10x that per day, but of course it isn't going to be able to capture it from everywhere, and it isn't 100% effective, but that gives us some sense of scale.

My point is that it's a myth that with the right management and equipment we could go out there and clean up this mess.
Click to expand...

I think it's hard to say, since we didn't have the right management and equipment on hand and deployed at the right time (and I am NOT trying to make this political, that isn't blaming anyone, it is just stating a fact). And I don't think anyone would consider a single ship to be the right equipment, this calls for a multi-front attack with many different pieces of equipment. Firefighters don't go to a fire with just a truck, they've got hoses, ladders, personnel, etc.

Obviously, containment/avoidance is better than after-the-fact cleanup. But I'd say it's a myth to say we wouldn't be in far, far better shape if the right management and equipment were in place right at the start.

-ERD50
 
Don't know what happened to my first post...

There is some measure of water using a foot... AHH... like acre feet... that would be the better measure as the oil looks like it is not even a foot deep... so I agree that T-Al is a bit off with cubic mile

ERD... I know you said it is not together... but I doubt that the ship could scoop up 10X the leak even if it were together... it will be ingesting a lot of water with any oil... I am not sure of the ratio... but would not be surprised if it were 10X.... or even 100X of water to oil...
 
Texas Proud said:
ERD... I know you said it is not together... but I doubt that the ship could scoop up 10X the leak even if it were together... it will be ingesting a lot of water with any oil... I am not sure of the ratio... but would not be surprised if it were 10X.... or even 100X of water to oil...
Click to expand...

Oh, I agree. I just threw that out there to give some sense of the scale. We need more than just this one ship.

Like any big project, you have to use the right tools for the right job. The big rigs like this would go into the thickest patches of oil, with smaller more maneuverable units running after the stuff that is more spread out. In the midst of a big patch, that skimmer might actually do better than 10:1, but on average I suspect it would be much less (though I really don't have much info to base that on, just a guess).

-ERD50
 
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