Political Polls Way Off

[TromboneAl]

I've usually found that political polls are reasonably accurate (+-5%). However, the last SC primary I saw said Obama 38%, Clinton 30%. Final result was 55% to 27%.

Has something changed or was I just not paying attention before.

Also, it seems that the media are not projecting winners as early as they used to -- product of Florida 2000?

 

[REWahoo]

Remember the NH primary?

"For days, poll after poll showed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama opening a big lead heading into the New Hampshire Democratic primary. But when the votes were counted, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won. Even she seemed surprised."

Politics | How did pollsters blow it in Clinton-Obama race? | Seattle Times Newspaper

The winds of popularity in the primaries seem to be frequently changing directions.

 

[NotSoonEnough]

Somewhere I read that it was becoming harder for pollsters to get good samples because so many folks no longer have land-lines. Is there such a thing as a cell phone phonebook?

Increase In Cell Phone-Only Users A Problem For Pollsters - CBS News

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i voted for edwards because he's cuter than hillary or obama.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

i voted for edwards because he's cuter than hillary or obama.

His hair is totally perfect.

 

[cantlogin]

Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

I'm just askin'.

 

[REWahoo]

Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

Of course! Why didn't I think of that...

 

[Wags]

Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

I'm just askin'.

Could be might be.

You do remember the Florida recount and the Supreme Court decision in 2000 which elected Old George W and left the GREAT AL GORE out in the cold.

GOD BLESS

 

[maddythebeagle]

I wonder how much of it is poor polling vs. people turning away from a supposed "front runner"...

 

[Texas Proud]

I've usually found that political polls are reasonably accurate (+-5%). However, the last SC primary I saw said Obama 38%, Clinton 30%. Final result was 55% to 27%.

Has something changed or was I just not paying attention before.

Also, it seems that the media are not projecting winners as early as they used to -- product of Florida 2000?

The problem is that they do not tell you how many are undecided... and that can be a big number... they then think that the undecided will break down about the same percent as the ones who tell...

BUT... I saw a program last night and they said a HUGH percent made their decision the last 3 days... and also a number changed because of what the Clintons did (read Bill).... so their plan to make him the 'black' candidate backfired in a state that is almost 50% black...

Now, we will see if it has any affect on Super Tuesday.

 

[Fireup2020]

If someone asks me, I do not know that I'd tell the truth anyway! (nor would I divulge my vote to the media!) My truth is in my ballot cast! (or on ER forum polls)

 

[youbet]

Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

I'm just askin'.

That's how it works for us here in Chicago. Is it different by you?

 

[deserat]

Like Fireup2025 I'd probably say "none of your business" or lie ;-) that's why they count votes afterwards and have official results.....it;s fun messing with the poll machine