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View Poll Results: Are you looking forward to self-driving cars?
Yes, once the technology makes them at least 80% safer and 20% less costly 52 65.00%
No, you'll pry my car from my cold, dead hands 28 35.00%
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Old 03-09-2017, 11:00 AM   #21
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I am not suggesting this is definitive, no one knows yet, just one writer's view of how the self-driving car timeline plays out. Link in post above.
Hmm... interesting that this chart seems to be predicting widespread adoption of fully-autonomous vehicles by about 2037. If I recall correctly, that's within a few years of the date of "the singularity" originally predicted by Ray Kurzweil about ten years ago. I think he's recently revised it to 2045, though.
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Old 03-09-2017, 11:28 AM   #22
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This whole discussion keeps reminding me of this song:

"Run like the wind
As excitement shivers up and down my spine
Down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me an old machine –

For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris, that hides a shining car

A brilliant red Barchetta, from a better, vanished time
Fire up the willing engine, responding with a roar!
Tires spitting gravel, I commit my weekly crime…

Wind in my hair –
Shifting and drifting –
Mechanical music
Adrenalin surge –

Well-weathered leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air
Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware"

Rush - Red Barchetta
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Old 03-09-2017, 11:48 AM   #23
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The graph that Midpack posted of automated car acceptance is a little more realistic than many I see, but I still think it is too optimistic.

I still think reliable level 5 is beyond 2050. Level 4 is more in grasp.

And I have just two words to say:

Pavement markings

Apparently our DOT/City here in Raleigh have decided to give up on marking the pavement. Double-left turn lanes are now a nightmare. The little "hash marks" to help cars navigate this are all gone in most of the intersections I traverse. Drivers can't deal with it. If you are in the left lane of a 2 turner, there's a good chance the driver next to you will force you into oncoming traffic.

Until our governments decide to support self driving cars, the technology is going to suffer. Start with painting some $%^! lines already!

If they can't afford to support 3000 year old technology (lane painting), how on earth will they get the money for smart sensors, intelligent signals, etc?
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Old 03-09-2017, 11:50 AM   #24
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Barn(aka metal farm building) a 1983 454 Chevy four barrel carb pickup gathering dust lusting for a blower.

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Old 03-09-2017, 11:56 AM   #25
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Cars do not excite me, so I do not follow what promises car manufacturers are making to know what they say. It seems to me many people expect a Level 5 in a few years. Or they may not care and use them like Level 4 or 5 anyway.

About dixonge's song, when true autonomous cars arrive, sure you can still have wind in your hair, a stick shift for you to play with (but it is not connected to anything), a gas pedal that will generate the sound "Vrooom, vrooom", but that's all it does.

In other words, you will be like a kid driving a coin-operated toy car in front of the supermarkets, while a computer does the real driving.
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Old 03-09-2017, 12:09 PM   #26
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And I have just two words to say:

Pavement markings

Apparently our DOT/City here in Raleigh have decided to give up on marking the pavement. Double-left turn lanes are now a nightmare. The little "hash marks" to help cars navigate this are all gone in most of the intersections I traverse. Drivers can't deal with it. If you are in the left lane of a 2 turner, there's a good chance the driver next to you will force you into oncoming traffic.

Until our governments decide to support self driving cars, the technology is going to suffer. Start with painting some $%^! lines already!

If they can't afford to support 3000 year old technology (lane painting), how on earth will they get the money for smart sensors, intelligent signals, etc?
Maybe smart cars can figure out how to share the road without any markings? People are already describing how intelligent cars can talk wirelessly with one another. There may not be any need for traffic signals, as cars can weave through an intersection using coordination, without slowing down. That's what people say, and you've got to admit it is all within current technology. So, what's the problem?
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Old 03-09-2017, 12:12 PM   #27
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I enjoy driving. As long as I can drive safely, I should be allowed to drive. Maybe you like Soda, but it is really, really bad for you. Should it be banned?

That being said, my son recently had an accident that a Level 3, maybe even a 2 car wouldn't have had. No one but the car was injured in his case, thankfully.

So around the city, around lots of cars, sure let's make it as safe as possible. But I want to feel the thrill of driving through the wine country, let me go. :O)
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Old 03-09-2017, 12:15 PM   #28
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So around the city, around lots of cars, sure let's make it as safe as possible. But I want to feel the thrill of driving through the wine country, let me go. :O)
Nope. VR headset for you!
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Old 03-09-2017, 12:36 PM   #29
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I enjoy driving. As long as I can drive safely, I should be allowed to drive.
Who decides what safe is - you? If the projections come true and humans in level 1 cars actually cause 10 times as many accidents as a level 5 self driving car, still your choice? You become a significant hazard to other drivers.

At some point (many years from now), insurance on level 1 cars may become prohibitively expensive, severely restricted or no longer available. Or manually driven cars may be completely outlawed on public roads. If you want to drive old school, you go to a site, almost like 'amusement parks' where humans can manually drive cars on private roads only.

[Edit: 50 years from now when most of us are riding around in level 5 self driving cars with no steering wheel, pedals, etc. - folks like you wil still be able to buy at a premium, a car with all the manual controls of today that you can drive yourself. BUT, it will also have level 5 self driving capability, and the instant you do something remotely dangerous, the car will take over control and disable your controls. Probably more likely?]

It's all speculating, and it'll take decades to fully evolve, but there may come a day where it's no longer a choice. Just like you can't ride a horse on roads with cars in many places people did 100+ years ago - evidently that transition took place between 1920 and 1939.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:03 PM   #30
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I have always loved driving. Staying safe, smooth and consistent is a joy to me. I define safe as avoiding accidents and potentially unsafe conditions, like others who may be unpredictable or worse. If you do something which causes me to avoid or brake, you get a demerit in my book. It's been 20 years since anyone has honked at me.

If we must, I say have a self-driving lane or two on the freeway, but keep all the fun backroads interactive. they are more difficult for the algorithms to handle anyway.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:34 PM   #31
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Maybe smart cars can figure out how to share the road without any markings? People are already describing how intelligent cars can talk wirelessly with one another. There may not be any need for traffic signals, as cars can weave through an intersection using coordination, without slowing down. That's what people say, and you've got to admit it is all within current technology. So, what's the problem?
Of course they will. GPS will be fine tuned. Cars will talk with each other. Etc.

But not in 2030. No way. And probably not 2040. There will be too many "old cars" still. Maybe 2060.

I'm talking about the phase over. Current level 2/3 systems need markings. Current level 0 (PEOPLE) need markings.

If governments can't afford to mark pavement, I have little faith they'll come up with good, secure standards for car to car communication, signal to car communication, road to car communication, hardened GPS transmitters, etc.

You gotta start somewhere, and that somewhere requires pavement markings.

Did you all see the Tesla that slammed into the wall because of a driver that let the car drive on a road under construction? The bad markings confused both Telsa and other drivers.

Here's a link to that incident. Notice the confusing lane markings:
https://youtu.be/fQxIhMBKblY

And I repeat: YES, the car was being asked to do more than it should. The driver should not have had it in this mode without him paying attention.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:39 PM   #32
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Joe, I was writing the above in jest. I posted that video in another thread. Pretty dumb "autopilot", eh? Just a lane follower. Yep, people who do not know the capability of their fancy car get into trouble. So, what is new?

I am skeptical that all the above about smart cars will happen in my life, or the years that I have left. Just because something is theoretically possible does not mean it is economically feasible as quickly as people think.

I hope I will be proven wrong, but then I am rarely called an optimist.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:47 PM   #33
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Joe, I was writing the above in jest. I posted that video in another thread. Pretty dumb "autopilot", eh? Just a lane follower. Yep, people who do not know the capability of their fancy car get into trouble. So, what is new?

I am skeptical that all the above about smart cars will happen in my life, or the years that I have left. Just because something is theoretically possible does not mean it is economically feasible as quickly as people think.

I hope I will be proven wrong, but then I am rarely called an optimist.
Ahhh, I see we are violently agreeing.

I love cars and driving, but I know I'm breaking down. My knees are bad enough that I think I have to give up the clutch. So, in many ways I hope for true self-drivers so I can keep my independence.

But, alas, I don't think I'll live long enough either.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:51 PM   #34
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About dixonge's song, when true autonomous cars arrive, sure you can still have wind in your hair, a stick shift for you to play with (but it is not connected to anything), a gas pedal that will generate the sound "Vrooom, vrooom", but that's all it does.

In other words, you will be like a kid driving a coin-operated toy car in front of the supermarkets, while a computer does the real driving.
That song was about breaking the law with a classic gas-guzzling, stick-shift sports car, FYI.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:53 PM   #35
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I don't enjoy driving any more. And driving my motorhome is very tiring, a big part because I tow a car and it does affect the handling. If a computer can drive so I can sit back and enjoy the scenery, I would welcome it.

Alas, just wishing for something does not make it materialize.
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Old 03-09-2017, 01:56 PM   #36
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That song was about breaking the law with a classic gas-guzzling, stick-shift sports car, FYI.
That's why I said you will not have a chance, and be left with just your imagination while sitting in a toy car when un-automated cars are banned.
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Old 03-09-2017, 02:06 PM   #37
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Hmm... interesting that this chart seems to be predicting widespread adoption of fully-autonomous vehicles by about 2037. If I recall correctly, that's within a few years of the date of "the singularity" originally predicted by Ray Kurzweil about ten years ago. I think he's recently revised it to 2045, though.

General AI by 2029, the last invention we ever need to make.

Quote:
an AI is expected to pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029)
So that doesn't make much logical sense

In my view: how fast and where exactly the water flows is unpredictable, but the general direction is quite clear.

I've misplaced the source just now, but the lead of deep learning at Google estimates we're now at 1/10.000th the level of sophistication vs. a human brain. With doubling of $/Power every 30 months and 13 doublings to go, that's 30 years before we arrive at full human capacity. 2045 it is. The crazy part is that following that logic in 2040 we're only at 25%, likely below a functional IQ. Not that AI would follow that development path.

Sounds about right to me, with all the caveats that apply. One catastrophe and we're toast. Even a serious hiccup in tech development and we'll never get there.
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Old 03-09-2017, 02:19 PM   #38
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That's why I said you will not have a chance, and be left with just your imagination while sitting in a toy car when un-automated cars are banned.
Bans are for breaking!
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Old 03-09-2017, 02:34 PM   #39
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I have been thinking about if more or less accidents would occur no matter what level we get too...

At first I was with NWBound.... you know that there are going to be people who think they can ignore driving like the guy who was killed with the truck...

But then I thought.... would not some of the driving assist kick in most of the time One of the first items will be auto braking... and if someone is not paying attention at least that should kick in more often than not to either prevent and accident or reduce the damage...

Also, lane change warnings that can steer the car are in the lower level and that would help prevent some accidents...


SOOO, I have changed my thinking that a net net the number of accidents will be reduced even with drivers not knowing the full capabilities of the car... I also throw in that getting to level 4 and 5 will be many years and people will learn over those years what to expect... and finally, from what I have seen on TV, the cars give a warning if they need assist or even stop if you do not touch the steering wheel every so often.... so it is kinda being built in the systems to let a driver know what kind of car they are in...
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Old 03-09-2017, 02:38 PM   #40
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Bans are for breaking!
Ah, they will catch you, seize your rare un-automated vintage car, and compress it in a crusher while making you watch in tears. Hey, looks like this can be made into a futuristic movie. Maybe you can be the protagonist.

Seriously, as long as there are older cars on the road and there are people who like to drive, it is not feasible to pass laws banning them. Eventually all older cars will die out, and the problem goes away. I am neutral here on this "car war", just thinking out what will happen.

It ain't matter though, because I may not live long enough to see any of this futuristic society.
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