Prediction: California Real Estate

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I'm pretty sure we have one of those already.

Its certainly all interesting info, but perhaps the same 'rounding' discussion I engaged in during another thread is worthy of consideration?

 

[Nords]

I dont know about you, but its a pain to do in my 40's...

Yeah, we're reserving that pain for the rental property...

 

[spncity]

Hey - does anyone know where this chart comes from?

This is it! This is a chart from the website I'm trying to relocate. Can someone post it?

Thanks!

spncity

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

right click, select properties gets ya: http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/Graphs/NorCal.PNG

 

[spncity]

Excellent! That did it! Thank you to everyone who helped. I found the post by searching on the poster named twaddle as suggested by REWahoo and that's how I found the chart in order to ask the above question

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

You can be sure you're getting clean, straightforward data from housingbubblebust.com

Hold on while I pull something up from www.buybeevercheese.com.

 

[calmloki]

You can be sure you're getting clean, straightforward data from housingbubblebust.com

Hold on while I pull something up from www.buybeevercheese.com.

Seems to be a problem with your link...

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Yep. Beevercheese fell like a rock and the cowards took their site offline to save themselves the embarrassment.

 

[honobob]

Hey, cube_rat, it looks like you timed the top perfectly. The bay area just had it's first year-over-year price drop since the dot-com bust.

Time for more recent resales and annual compounded appreciation rates. First purchases in 2003, 2004 & 2005. All resales in late 2007.

400 Beale # 2406
Sold 5/2004 $840,000 resold 9/2007 $1,029,000 7.2% annual appreciation.

454 Frederick sold 10/2004 $920,000 resold 10/2007 $1,195,000 9%

2342 9th sold 9/2002 $549,000 resold 10/07 $884,000 9.8%

201 McAllister #201 sold 3/2003 $505,000 resold 9/2007 $740,000 10%

For you long term investors in Ca, 134 Parker Avenue, a non owner occupied property (rental) was paying taxes of $606 annually thanks to Prop 13. It sold for $1,071,000. The new owner will be paying taxes in the amount of $12,220 annually. Basically the state was subsidising the rental to the tune of $1,000 a month.

What do you think Wabmester? Should I hang on for another $60,000+ or bail?

 

[twaddle]

What do you think Wabmester? Should I hang on for another $60,000+ or bail?

Bail.

DQNews - Bay Area Press Release - January 2008

 

[honobob]

Bail.

DQNews - Bay Area Press Release - January 2008

Yeah but them's those mushed up numbers and houses and areas and such. I think they include the 50% that do worse than the top half or so. If you want to be in the bottom half, well OK, but I think you're like yer dog, She's noisy and excitable. SF down 1.9%!!!

Today is a good day to make a smart real estate purchase.

BuymybookBuymybookBuymybookBuymybookBuymybookBuymybook

 

[BunsGettingFirm]

Ah, but remmember, as the banker said to the young man: If you pull out before the end, she loses interest...

Remember, Cube_rat is a former O'Farrel Theater dancer. I don't think she risks people losing interest whether she makes others pull out early or not.

I'm still waiting for the picture proof from her though.

 

[BunsGettingFirm]

honobob, for that to work I'm pretty sure you need to say it three times while clicking your heels together.

Am I crazy or does hobnob work for the real estate industry in some way?

 

[tryan]

Today is a good day to make a smart real estate purchase.

... and eat right and exercise.

 

[HFWR]

And don't forget to floss...

 

[REWahoo]

Am I crazy or does hobnob work for the real estate industry in some way?

No other rational explanation comes to mind...

 

[honobob]

Am I crazy or does hobnob work for the real estate industry in some way?

Well you must be crazy because real estate works for Honobob.

And it can work for You too!

 

[honobob]

Almost two years since Sam's original post. Time to follow up with some more SF resales. These all sold in 2008.
88 King # 414 sold 4/01 for $485,00 and resold 4/08 for $838,000 8.2% annual compounded appreciation.
601 4th #223 sold 12/03 $870,000 and resold 3/08 $1,320,000 9% ACA.
75 Folsom #1203 sold 9/04 $637,000 and resold 3/08 $819,000 8% ACA.

The above are all condos but I thought I'd take a look at a single family. 131 Mendosa sold 1/06 $1,162,000 and resold 26 months later in 3/08 for $1,400,000 9.2% ACA. They did take out a $2,000 permit to retile baths and kitchen so doesn't seem a flip!

Underwater? Bubble?

 

[ProspectiveBum]

I live in SoCal, in a "good" neighborhood with highly ranked schools, etc. In my neighborhood, prices are off ~10% from the peak 3 years ago.

Down the street, there's a place for sale that's the same model as ours, listed at $749,000. That house was last sold on 03/22/2005 for $830,000.

I'm sure we could spend days finding individual examples of homes that have appreciated, but I assure you that the vast majority in my area have gone down. The higher end of the market seems to be more affected than the lower end.

 

[eridanus]

I live in SoCal, in a "good" neighborhood with highly ranked schools, etc. In my neighborhood, prices are off ~10% from the peak 3 years ago.

If you had honobob's talent, you'd be sitting pretty. The guy can't miss! He's like a successful Kiyosaki, or a modern Midas.

 

[honobob]

I'm sure we could spend days finding individual examples of homes that have appreciated, but I assure you that the vast majority in my area have gone down.

Well normally I give you resales from the areas I've been looking in for my own investment purposes and every recent sale that has a prior sale within the last few years has appreciated!!

But nooooooooo, you still want to naysay till we're all unhappy. Well be that way, but if you want the good news I'll be happy to email you the report I just got that has 761 resales in San Francisco (18 pages total) that shows mostly double digit appreciation and quite alot of triple digit appreciation!! and not ONE decline in value. First sale in 05,06,& 07 and resold in 07 or 08. Yep, no bubble.

OK, I've found my happy spot.

4% appreciation my *ss!!
Today is a great day to buy real estate!

 

[honobob]

More resales from CA

Condos

77 Dow Place 3750-564 sold new 1/04 for $530,000
Resold 3/08 $769,000 for $239,000 in appreciation.
855 Folsom #533 3752-295 sold 9/03 for $684,000
Resold 5/08 $960,000 for $276,000 in appreciation

Flippers SPECIAL Single family 5 rooms 1 bath 701 Rockdale Drive.
Purchased 4/06 for $650,000 remodeled but no added space to the 1,150 Sq. Ft.
And sold 5/08 for $1,098,000. A $448,000 INCREASE!

New construction condos are selling well. 301 Main 3745-376 a 2bed/2bath sold 5/08 for $1,427.05 per sq. ft.

AND the highest $ per s.f sale…2780 Broadway , a 1962 built 3,965 sq. ft. home on a 3,461 sq. ft. lot. Sold 3/00 for $5,625,000 and resold 5/08 for $10,950,000! That’s $2,761.66 a square foot.

Hey CuppaJoe, That's got to be near you. I have to imagine that house is a mid-century smack in the middle of some Victorians.

Here's the seller. Trevor Traina, 35, owns 2780 Broadway. Stepson of novelist Danielle Steele, Traina sold his comparison-shopping web site CompareNet to Microsoft in 1999 for an undisclosed sum and made the society column in April with a 1970s-themed birthday party.

 

[FUEGO]

Nice honobob - look at all those folks making money 6 months ago!

 

[honobob]

Nice honobob - look at all those folks making money 6 months ago!

Well the OP's prediction was from 25 months ago!! Plus, it takes a bit for sales to be recorded. I'll update as the information becomes public.

Annnnnnnnnd, are they making money OR winning the real estate lottery?!

 

[ziggy29]

We bought a small house in southern San Jose (3/2, 1200 sf) for $239,000 in 1997 and sold for $440,000 in 2003. (That's why we're fortunate enough to enjoy a paid-off home today.)

A couple years later I think its value probably peaked at around $650,000. Today I think it's probably back to about our selling price. And I think California gets hit a lot harder by this economic slowdown than most states. So I don't think it's done yet.