Retail theft and store closings

[Markola]

<mod note> Given the level of interest, these posts were moved from the inflation discussion thread to their own thread topic.

Great for people who are financially independent, not reliant on jobs for income.



But a lot of people would be hurt, be forced to move out, maybe lose homes.



So that maybe the price of gas and some grocery items might be cheaper for those who don't need to work.

One sign of the inflation stress, imho, is the 9 recent Target store closings, which the announcement said was due to shrinkage. Also, the large Super Target in the city, which I use, did not close but has put everything shopliftable behind locked glass doors, toothpaste, razors, anything that size. Inflation might be underlying the shrinkage wave.

 

[Affinity4Investing]

One sign of the inflation stress, imho, is the 9 recent Target store closings, which the announcement said was due to shrinkage. Also, the large Super Target in the city, which I use, did not close but has put everything shopliftable behind locked glass doors, toothpaste, razors, anything that size. Inflation might be underlying the shrinkage wave.

Well that's a different take... Can you speak towards the type of environments all 9 of these stores are geographically located in - as in, anything in common with those environments? Inflation is identified by BLS charts to specifically be worse in those particular areas? I'm struggling to identify what inflation has to do with the situation of these closings.

 

[Montecfo]

Well that's a different take... Can you speak towards the type of environments all 9 of these stores are geographically located in - as in, anything in common with those environments? Inflation is identified by BLS charts to specifically be worse in those particular areas? I'm struggling to identify what inflation has to do with the situation of these closings.

Well no it is not about inflation. But those jurisdictions have stopped prosecuting low level theft. That is in fact the common thread.

Retailers have little recourse after doing all they can to discourage it. At some point closing is the only remaining option.

 

[Markola]

Well that's a different take... Can you speak towards the type of environments all 9 of these stores are geographically located in - as in, anything in common with those environments? Inflation is identified by BLS charts to specifically be worse in those particular areas? I'm struggling to identify what inflation has to do with the situation of these closings.

The common denominator is that they are rough areas. I meant that inflation is making things hard to afford, so people are resorting to theft. The spike coincides with the inflation spike over the past year, so I hypothesize that they are related. The store closings are across multiple but similar US communities, so my guess is the nationwide inflation is driving it.

“The greatest portion of shrink — 65% — came from external theft, including products taken during organized shoplifting incidents, the trade group said Tuesday. More than two-thirds of respondents said they were seeing even more violence and aggression from perpetrators of organized retail crime compared with a year ago.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/target-close-9-stores-including-3-san-francisco-103505390

 

[Gumby]

These people are not Jean Valjean stealing bread for his starving sister and her children. They are organized criminals.

 

[explanade]

These people are not Jean Valjean stealing bread for his starving sister and her children. They are organized criminals.

Some of it is gangs giving them a list of things to get and often the ones doing it are heroin addicts.

But the losses stores suffer are a small percentage.

Large retail chains have provisions for losses from shoplifting so there is some believe that chains are using it as an excuse to close underperforming stores.

 

[MichaelB]

These people are not Jean Valjean stealing bread for his starving sister and her children. They are organized criminals.

Yes, and they have more resources than any other time in history to sell the stolen merchandise - Ebay and Amazon.

Large retail chains have provisions for losses from shoplifting so there is some believe that chains are using it as an excuse to close underperforming stores.

I believe Walgreens has already acknowledged this.

 

[Affinity4Investing]

Well no it is not about inflation. But those jurisdictions have stopped prosecuting low level theft. That is in fact the common thread.

Retailers have little recourse after doing all they can to discourage it. At some point closing is the only remaining option.

Bingo!

 

[Affinity4Investing]

The common denominator is that they are rough areas. I meant that inflation is making things hard to afford, so people are resorting to theft. The spike coincides with the inflation spike over the past year, so I hypothesize that they are related. The store closings are across multiple but similar US communities, so my guess is the nationwide inflation is driving it.

“The greatest portion of shrink — 65% — came from external theft, including products taken during organized shoplifting incidents, the trade group said Tuesday. More than two-thirds of respondents said they were seeing even more violence and aggression from perpetrators of organized retail crime compared with a year ago.”

------------------------------------------------------------

The common denominator is that the issues - according to the source (Target) - have nothing to do with inflation. Nowhere in their press statement, is inflation discussed:

https://corporate.target.com/press/...es-to-prioritize-team-member-and-guest-safety

As I look at the 5 cities/regions with the highest inflation (via CNBC as the source), only 1 out of the 5 listed - are an area that Target is closing facilities :

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/03/us-cities-impacted-most-by-inflation.html

Inflation just isn't the culprit here. If it was, Target (and all of the other retailers fleeing certain geographic areas) would have a much larger issue on their hands and would be closing stores in more than just 1 of the 5 areas CNBC discusses - just as an example. There are other reports out there that back up what CNBC shows, so this isn't cherry picking.

This is a law and order problem, IME. This is what makes retailers uninvestible for me. The drugstores like CVS and Walgreens, the traditional retailers - they're just not for me. Exceptions exist, like COST - but it's just a matter of time before they too have their turn.

 

[Chuckanut]

Some of it is gangs giving them a list of things to get and often the ones doing it are heroin addicts.

But the losses stores suffer are a small percentage.

Large retail chains have provisions for losses from shoplifting so there is some believe that chains are using it as an excuse to close underperforming stores.

.
I keep hearing the above, and the lower income folks keep feeling the pain and consequences of crime. What else is new?

 

[Montecfo]

.

I keep hearing the above, and the lower income folks keep feeling the pain and consequences of crime. What else is new?

The people doing the stealing are young able bodies people. They do not appear poor and hungry. It is retail organized theft and it takes place especially in localities that no longer prosecute shoplifting.

To say stores have a provision for shoplifting is true, but such provisions were never meant to cover retail organized theft.

If localities cultivate lawlessness it won't be just retailers that leave.

 

[Surewhitey]

The people doing the stealing are young able bodies people. They do not appear poor and hungry. It is retail organized theft and it takes place especially in localities that no longer prosecute shoplifting.

To say stores have a provision for shoplifting is true, but such provisions were never meant to cover retail organized theft.

If localities cultivate lawlessness it won't be just retailers that leave.

Agreed. If I was operating on a break even (likely in low income areas), I'd be shutting down too. The extra expense of lock boxes made of acrylic is not cheap either. Extra "security" cost & additional loses are the straw to camel's back. I'd be gone too as a citizen. Life is too short for dealing with idiots with too much time and no jobs in this low rate employment.

 

[JoeWras]

Life is too short for dealing with idiots with too much time and no jobs in this low rate employment.

Their "job" has become theft.

This is an age old issue, since the dawn of man.

The difference right now is the "job" is easier at the present time, so there are more applicants interested in all the positions.

 

[Surewhitey]

Their "job" has become theft.

This is an age old issue, since the dawn of man.

The difference right now is the "job" is easier at the present time, so there are more applicants interested in all the positions.

True. Job with flexible hour... Like day trading with no risk.

 

[Markola]

These people are not Jean Valjean stealing bread for his starving sister and her children. They are organized criminals.

LOL. My DW grew up in such a place and worked at Target as a teenager. She aggressively agrees with you and all the commenters here.

 

[Markola]

Yes, and they have more resources than any other time in history to sell the stolen merchandise - Ebay and Amazon.



I believe Walgreens has already acknowledged this.

This makes sense, sad as it is. I guess the cottage industry of entrepreneurs making a living through retail arbitrage has devolved into “Nah, free is even better.” Organized theft must have grown in the last year, as the articles mention a big spike several times.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Who wants to shop at a store with everything under lock and key. It would take forever.

 

[explanade]

The people doing the stealing are young able bodies people. They do not appear poor and hungry. It is retail organized theft and it takes place especially in localities that no longer prosecute shoplifting.

To say stores have a provision for shoplifting is true, but such provisions were never meant to cover retail organized theft.

If localities cultivate lawlessness it won't be just retailers that leave.

That's a narrative against a handful of DAs.

The bigger problems is undermanned PDs in some cities, with older policemen retiring or taking easier jobs in suburbs.

 

[Montecfo]

That's a narrative against a handful of DAs.



The bigger problems is undermanned PDs in some cities, with older policemen retiring or taking easier jobs in suburbs.

No.
Theft under $900/1000 is a misdemeanor in NY, Oregon and California where the closings happened.

Underfunded or defunded police forces are also a factor.

DAs who do not prosecute filed crimes is yet a third layer of dysfunction in each of those jurisdictions.

 

[folivier]

My concern with this "organized theft" is when nothing is done then others will start doing it. Everywhere. By all demographics. If it isn't brought under control then our society will continue to crumble.
We're already seeing groups of teenagers in our local areas pushing the boundaries of sensibility. Won't be long before it escalates and crimes become more common.

 

[Koolau]

These people are not Jean Valjean stealing bread for his starving sister and her children. They are organized criminals.

Yeah, I'd love to have a discussion on this but I won't rile Porky - this time.

 

[Koolau]

Some of it is gangs giving them a list of things to get and often the ones doing it are heroin addicts.

But the losses stores suffer are a small percentage.

Large retail chains have provisions for losses from shoplifting so there is some believe that chains are using it as an excuse to close underperforming stores.

I would agree that USUALLY these losses are relatively small AND accounted for up front (Shrinkage is already in the mix.) BUT when gangs of 75 clean out your store in 15 minutes, I don't think that's accounted for. I wouldn't stay in an area that risked my employees - let alone made it impossible to turn a profit.

But, it's nothing to do with inflation (yours or the nation's OR the thugs' inflation.) The thugs do it because they can. YMMV

 

[Koolau]

Why not take the discussion on shoplifting to another thread, or even it’s one. That way we can stay on topic here, which is inflation.

Good point, but at least one member suggested all this unpleasantness was caused by inflation and another suggested that stores are blaming inflation for closing. I humbly disagree.

But at your suggestion, I'm finished discussing "thugs, etc."

 

[explanade]

No.
Theft under $900/1000 is a misdemeanor in NY, Oregon and California where the closings happened.

Underfunded or defunded police forces are also a factor.

DAs who do not prosecute filed crimes is yet a third layer of dysfunction in each of those jurisdictions.

But that DAs fail to prosecute is a second lay

SF DA was recalled well over a year ago.

 

[Montecfo]

Brooke Jenkins has been a breath of fresh air but is swimming upstream against the mayor who has downplayed crime, the law which says shoplifting under $950 is a misdemeanor, and an underfunded police force down 600 officers.


Turning back to thread topic, organized retail theft is not a reaction to inflation.