Role of luck in life success

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter Well, I was born in America (1:20), white (1:3?), male (1:2), into a doctor's family that appreciated education and could support my BA (1:5?). So basically before I had pooped in a diaper I had won the lottery.

That can help, but I went to high school with dozens of kids like that. They weren't doctor's kids; they were scions from extremely wealthy, influential families. Some did well in life but about half of them ended up dead, druggies or total life failures. One of them bags my groceries now.

A lot of lottery winners blow their opportunity luck.

I'm sure there are hundreds of others born into the reverse situation who've done equally bad or well.

I really do believe that a lot of it is what you make of the opportunities you seize.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrayHare Anyone who has played a card game, and won, knows there is a best choice of action for every possible set of cards you are dealt. It takes study, and some bad decisions, to learn what the best option is.

True, but you need a good brain, eyesight, etc ...what if you didn’t have those?

[GrayHare]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead True, but you need a good brain, eyesight, etc ...what if you didn’t have those?

If that's the hand you're dealt, you do the best you can with it.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrayHare If that's the hand you're dealt, you do the best you can with it.

But you must admit, life is easier when certain “things” are in place.

I have been wildly successful, but I am not naive enough to think that everything happened because of perfect choices on my part.

[unclemick]

I am not a big fan of work.

I am a big fan of 'Bogle's Folly' aka index funds - 'time in the market not market timing'. Discovered in hindsight while I tried all kinds of other investments after reading books. Except commodities.

Luck? Born at the right time and place?

heh heh heh - so the lead sled dog was my unnoticed steady/periodic investment in an index fund while I 'worked hard and studied everything else'.

[COcheesehead]

Everybody should read the book Outliers.

[nancyfrank232]

My success is 100% luck

No question

[Ronstar]

I don't know to what extent (if any) that I am successful. And I certainly can't quantify the level of luck that played a role in whatever level of success that I have achieved. Any analysis of the subject is subjective.

[RobbieB]

I'm a complete slacker, always have been. I must be really lucky!

[BoodaGazelle]

Non of the many “lucky” advantages, such as being born in America, are not enough to prevent you from having a pretty crappy life, if you do not take the right steps to avail yourself of them.

Most of this type of talk is political, and another way to increase “resentment against achievement”... read the book of the same name, by Robert Sheaffer.

[Fermion]

Luck plays a huge part, no question about it. Two people can have the exact same skill set yet one is lucky enough to work for a company whose stock options pay off 1000x and the other has their company go belly up.

Also, I made 550% in a bit over a year in the stock market, that ain't skill.

[DrRoy]

How many have read Ringworld by Larry Niven? A risk adverse alien is building a team for a potentially dangerous task. As part of the team, he wants someone who is very lucky. However, he cannot get or often even find the candidates that are deemed to be the very most lucky. (They are too lucky to get involved in a dangerous venture.)

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrRoy How many have read Ringworld by Larry Niven? A risk adverse alien is building a team for a potentially dangerous task. As part of the team, he wants someone who is very lucky. However, he cannot get or often even find the candidates that are deemed to be the very most lucky. (They are too lucky to get involved in a dangerous venture.)

That would tend to skew the results of any type of poll or survey on here. The really unlucky would not be even thinking about early retirement and thus would not be posting here and the super lucky are on their 110 foot megayacht in one of their 3 hot tubs and definitely not posting here. We only get the middle people.

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Luck plays a huge part, no question about it. Two people can have the exact same skill set yet one is lucky enough to work for a company whose stock options pay off 1000x and the other has their company go belly up.

This may not be the best example. I think it would be up to the other one to leave a company that wasn't compensating him well enough for his skills. There's 'exact same skills' and then there's ambition.

If I felt underappreciated by my company, or in a loser company, I would go find a company that did rather than blame my bad luck. Actually, that is exactly what I did way back when.

"Life isn't fair. It's your job to go to where it isn't fair in your favor" (anon)

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by marko This may not be the best example. I think it would be up to the other one to leave a company that wasn't compensating him well enough for his skills. There's 'exact same skills' and then there's ambition. If I felt underappreciated by my company, or in a loser company, I would go find a company that did rather than blame my bad luck. Actually, that is exactly what I did way back when. "Life isn't fair. It's your job to go to where it isn't fair in your favor" (anon)

You are likely fooling yourself the same way a market timer fools themselves if you think you can reliably predict the success of a company even while working there. It also sometimes is not super easy to just pick up and leave after you have settled down, bought a house, etc.

When we left a large software company in Redmond in 2014, I figured they were going to muddle around for a few years and never become huge again....the stock has gone up 500% since then.

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I always joke around with family or friends that invest that I'm either lucky or good, and EITHER works.

[target2019]

Luck may not be presented to individuals equally. I believe our luck was above average, and we did position ourselves for the "lightning strike", as it were.

[Winemaker]

If one compares oneself as a professional sport team, doesn't luck, preparation, and wealth all factor in to the team's success? They all contribute to an degree but doesn't motivation play a bigger role?

[MichaelB]

Seeking employment after college, I can’t imagine being able to look ahead a couple of decades to assess the future prospects of the business, my level of achievement, or my compensation. Stock options weren’t even a thought.

Over the years we got together with college mates and compared notes. We compared achievements, but even then, longer term prospects were unknown. Same with my brother. Things like stock options didn’t appear until decades later, and they certainly weren’t applied evenly across the employment choices we all made.

In order to make the right choice regarding things like stock options, I would have needed a time machine. In my case, stock based compensation I received was the result of two factors. One was my professional achievement. The other was a change in policy regarding executive compensation around the time I made it to any executive level. They very low option price I had was worth more than gold, as the world thought my employer might go out of business, and it didn’t.

My brother, smarter, same strong work ethic, similar level of professional achievement, but no stock options in his company. So, toward the end our our professional lives, we all have different financial pictures. Same with my college mates. How to explain these difference? Some is smart choice, part is my effort, the rest is good fortune - in my humble opinion.

[Go-NoGo]

Did no one read the study the OP posted:

"...Taking these sort of findings seriously, the European Research Council gave the biochemist Ohid Yaqub 1.7 million dollars to properly determine the extent of serendipity in science.

Coming up with a multidimensional definition of serendipity, Yaqub was last seen boarding a plane for South America. When he was later apprehended in Belize in his mansion with in infinity pool, Yaqub was quoted as saying he was demonstrating in a very personal way of how luck played an important role in life outcomes. The European Research Council declined comment on study and said it was reviewing it's grant screening process"



And now back to your regularly scheduled programming.