Storms Marco & Laura Heading for the Gulf States

[ExFlyBoy5]

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Originally Posted by JoeWras NWS is using words like "Unsurvivable storm surge" and "catastrophic damage." I'm sometimes hard on them for naming storms that are just blobs on the satellite -- one reason we're getting more names than in the past when satellites didn't exist or were low resolution. However, they do NOT fool around with using these kinds of words in warnings. If they use hard language, they mean it.

Words have meanings. I remember before Katrina hit, I was camping in NW Georgia and we were listening to the warnings that were being issued and it was absolutely chilling what they were saying...and in the end, they weren't wrong. The next day, I was called off leave and had to make my way back to the base where we got very, VERY busy doing evacuation flights and relief back and forth from TX to LA and MS. Hard to believe that was 15 years ago.

At any rate, my thoughts go out to those that are in the path of the storm.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by Montecfo I think the location is more important than intensity at this point. And despite various predictions, these storms can and do weaken as Marco did recently. And of course Katrina was a Cat 5 before making landfall as a Cat 3. It looks like it may hit between Hou and NO which is probably as good as it gets.

And perhaps still rare, but others more recently like Michael spun up and made landfall as a Cat 5 at 160mph.

Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange and Lake Charles are close to landfall area. These are not very small cities.

I’m glad we stopped at the Louisiana rest area near the TX border recently and finally saw the completely new one. It was out for several years because it had been absolutely creamed by Rita. Looks like it’s in the bullseye once again.

[NavAir]

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Originally Posted by audreyh1 And perhaps still rare, but others more recently like Michael spun up and made landfall as a Cat 5 at 160mph. Beaumont/Port Arthur/Prange and Lake Charles are close to landfall area. These are not very small cities. I’m glad we stopped at the Louisiana rest area near the TX border recently and finally saw the completely new one. It was out for several years because it had been absolutely creamed by Rita. Looks like it’s in the bullseye once again.

We stopped there on our last trip TX-FL as well. It is directly on the water, and anything more than a couple of feet of surge will inundate it, plus I10 is at the same elevation, and will likely be impassible for many days.

Our place in Perdido Key got a direct hit from Ivan in 2004, and it took 4 years to rebuild it. We had a 14 foot storm surge on that one. I'm feeling a bit guilty about being relieved that Laura isn't heading toward the FL panhandle...

[Car-Guy]

At 4:30pm cdt we started getting some pretty good rain from some of the far outer bands of Laura. We are 150 miles north of Houston and about 100 miles from the Louisiana boarder. Actually surprised to get anything based on the projected track, especially this early.

[RAE]

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Originally Posted by Dtail As was mentioned by another poster, the hurricane intensity predictions have not been as accurate as the tracking. The rapid intensification of these hurricanes, once they are in open gulf waters has changed over the last few years. Similar to Hurricane Michael.

That is true. I'm not a meteorologist, but when you have Gulf water at 87-88 degrees, storms have plenty of fuel to get them ramped up. Once these storms clear Cuba and start heading north through the Gulf, look out. We saw that happen with Michael two years ago, and now with Laura.

The people who work at the National Hurricane Center are trained professionals, and they typically do a great job forecasting these storms. So I don't want to be too critical, but I can't help thinking that there should have been a bit more warning to coastal areas in LA and east TX that this storm was going to be BIG (like Cat. 4+). If you are going to need to evacuate an area, it really helps to have at least 48 hours notice or so, because people cannot just pick up and leave on short notice. In this case, I don't think a lot of people had that long, because NHC was a bit slow to warn people that this storm was going to be as catastrophic as it will ultimately turn out to be. I personally think things have changed in recent years, with the extreme warm water we are seeing in the Gulf in August/Sept (and even in the Atlantic, near Florida), which seems to be setting the stage for more of these Cat 4/5 monster storms. Hurricane Dorian last year was absolutely catastrophic for the N. Bahama Islands, and that monster was a Cat 5, bordering on Cat 6 (which doesn't even exist currently). Somehow we are going to have to get even better at projecting the intensity of these storms, so that people in their path have adequate time to get out before they arrive. I realize that some people will not evacuate regardless how much notice you give them, but I do feel badly for anyone that would have evacuated, but was unable to because they did not have enough time, and did not realize how huge of a storm was coming at them.

[Dtail]

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Originally Posted by RAE That is true. I'm not a meteorologist, but when you have Gulf water at 87-88 degrees, storms have plenty of fuel to get them ramped up. Once these storms clear Cuba and start heading north through the Gulf, look out. We saw that happen with Michael two years ago, and now with Laura. The people who work at the National Hurricane Center are trained professionals, and they typically do a great job forecasting these storms. So I don't want to be too critical, but I can't help thinking that there should have been a bit more warning to coastal areas in LA and east TX that this storm was going to be BIG (like Cat. 4+). If you are going to need to evacuate an area, it really helps to have at least 48 hours notice or so, because people cannot just pick up and leave on short notice. In this case, I don't think a lot of people had that long, because NHC was a bit slow to warn people that this storm was going to be as catastrophic as it will ultimately turn out to be. I personally think things have changed in recent years, with the extreme warm water we are seeing in the Gulf in August/Sept (and even in the Atlantic, near Florida), which seems to be setting the stage for more of these Cat 4/5 monster storms. Hurricane Dorian last year was absolutely catastrophic for the N. Bahama Islands, and that monster was a Cat 5, bordering on Cat 6 (which doesn't even exist currently). Somehow we are going to have to get even better at projecting the intensity of these storms, so that people in their path have adequate time to get out before they arrive. I realize that some people will not evacuate regardless how much notice you give them, but I do feel badly for anyone that would have evacuated, but was unable to because they did not have enough time, and did not realize how huge of a storm was coming at them.

Agree that overall the NHC does a pretty good job. Even the European model didn't predict the level of Cat 4.
I am wondering if the NHC doesn't wish to predict a Cat 4 and then if it doesn't materialize, then they would worry about the "boy who cried wolf" concept and wouldn't be taken as serious the next time. Just a thought.

[audreyh1]

It seems that these late stage rapid intensifications still take weather gurus by surprise. I don’t believe the phenomenon is yet well understood. I think hurricane Hanna this year slowed down when close and intensified quickly and made landfall as a much stronger storm than expected. It had been a tropical storm up until 18 hours before landfall, and suddenly became a hurricane and made it up to 90 mph shortly before landfall.

[Sunset]

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Originally Posted by Dtail Agree that overall the NHC does a pretty good job. Even the European model didn't predict the level of Cat 4. I am wondering if the NHC doesn't wish to predict a Cat 4 and then if it doesn't materialize, then they would worry about the "boy who cried wolf" concept and wouldn't be taken as serious the next time. Just a thought.

This is our weather folks, everything is a near disaster
Problem is, should we even get something bad, nobody is going to listen due to the other 40 times in the year it was an 'Extreme weather event' ...

[jollystomper]

I have been in touch with a niece who lives in the Houston are. She has evacuated to Dallas, staying with another niece there. Hoping everyone in the impacted area stays safe.

[RAE]

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Originally Posted by Dtail Agree that overall the NHC does a pretty good job. Even the European model didn't predict the level of Cat 4. I am wondering if the NHC doesn't wish to predict a Cat 4 and then if it doesn't materialize, then they would worry about the "boy who cried wolf" concept and wouldn't be taken as serious the next time. Just a thought.

Well, I was just looking back at some of the model runs for Laura, and at 7:00 am on the 25th, the Euro model run was projecting a sustained wind speed of about 150 mph at landfall. It projected landfall to be around Galveston, which is a bit west of where it will ultimately land, but the projection of 150 mph winds (which are Cat. 4, bordering on Cat -5 winds) may well turn out to be very near what happens. Several of the other models were predicting winds that strong 12 hours or so before the Euro. Again, I know that hindsight is 20-20, but I would think that some of these model runs would have received more attention from the forecasters at NHC. I know they do not want to be alarmist in their forecasts, but on the other hand, if a Cat. 4+ storm is potentially in the cards, people need to know that. Personally, if I lived in the path of the storm, I would rather have NHC err on the side of forecasting too strong of a storm, rather than weaker than what actually happens. Sure, it may be a big hassle to evacuate if it turns out later that you did not have to; but on the other hand, if there is a fair chance that a monster storm may be coming at you in less than 48 hours, getting that information in time may end up saving your life.

[JoeWras]

I nearly became a meteorologist. Took a few undergrad courses, and instead went to engineering. So, I still follow it quite closely.

The hurricane experts still lament the state of intensity forecasting. They know there is work to be done. And much research continues. It is complex. It is more than the temperature of the ocean, although that is a large factor.

They are very happy with track forecasting improvements over the last 25 years. Indeed, the accuracy has improved tremendously.

[Montecfo]

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Originally Posted by audreyh1 And perhaps still rare, but others more recently like Michael spun up and made landfall as a Cat 5 at 160mph. Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange and Lake Charles are close to landfall area. These are not very small cities.

Well, yes significantly more rare. Last Cat 5 to hit US mainland before Michael in 2018 was Andrew in 1992, and then Camille in 69.

The cities you mentioned are far smaller than NO and Houston which was my point.

[Dtail]

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Originally Posted by RAE Well, I was just looking back at some of the model runs for Laura, and at 7:00 am on the 25th, the Euro model run was projecting a sustained wind speed of about 150 mph at landfall. It projected landfall to be around Galveston, which is a bit west of where it will ultimately land, but the projection of 150 mph winds (which are Cat. 4, bordering on Cat -5 winds) may well turn out to be very near what happens. Several of the other models were predicting winds that strong 12 hours or so before the Euro. Again, I know that hindsight is 20-20, but I would think that some of these model runs would have received more attention from the forecasters at NHC. I know they do not want to be alarmist in their forecasts, but on the other hand, if a Cat. 4+ storm is potentially in the cards, people need to know that. Personally, if I lived in the path of the storm, I would rather have NHC err on the side of forecasting too strong of a storm, rather than weaker than what actually happens. Sure, it may be a big hassle to evacuate if it turns out later that you did not have to; but on the other hand, if there is a fair chance that a monster storm may be coming at you in less than 48 hours, getting that information in time may end up saving your life.

Agree totally.

[Mark1]

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Originally Posted by Koolau My impression is that the actual (attempted) evacuation for Rita was begun too late (both folks deciding to do so and the authorities reversing the lanes.) Having said that, I could be wrong so YMMV.

The biggest problem with Rita was too many folks tried to leave the Houston metro area. At the time, I lived ~50 miles inland and 75 ft above sea level, however on my street 80% to 90% of the folks evacuated inland instead of staying put. Everyone was extremely jumpy from Katrina which had only hit a month earlier. When Hurricane Ike hit several years later only about 30% of my street left town for inland areas. The saying goes "Run from water and hide from wind", but I have to admit once DW and I decided to stay put for Rita and the forecast later that night was for Cat 5 to go basically over my house with maybe 120-130 mph wind, I was a little nervous to say the least.

[Gumby]

In 1985, Hurricane Gloria hit Connecticut as a Category 1 hurricane (the eye passed directly over my current house). I was at sea on my submarine, but the young wife evacuated from Mystic, CT to Worcester, MA. The point being - I don't think I'd wait around to see if it's going to be Category 3 or 4. If it's a hurricane at all, and you live on the coast where it's expected to make landfall, you should leave. Heck, a plain old tropical storm like Isaias can do substantial damage.

[Montecfo]

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Originally Posted by Mark1 The saying goes "Run from water and hide from wind", but I have to admit once DW and I decided to stay put for Rita and the forecast later that night was for Cat 5 to go basically over my house with maybe 120-130 mph wind, I was a little nervous to say the least.

As you note, Rita was another example of a Cat 5 hurricane in the Gulf weakening and making landfall as a 3.

Let's hope Laura does not strengthen to a 5.

[kimcdougc]

Well, my 83 year old dad lives in Port Arthur, Tx and won't leave his house. We all tried to get him to go. My sister and niece have all left town. Winds supposed to come in at 150 miles per hour and gusts of 185. I just sent him what might be the last text I ever get to send him. He is so stubborn. What can one do but pray. He lives in a ranch style house and can't climb into the attic. I am pretty mad at him at this point, but hopeful.

[Montecfo]

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Originally Posted by kimcdougc Well, my 83 year old dad lives in Port Arthur, Tx and won't leave his house. We all tried to get him to go. My sister and niece have all left town. Winds supposed to come in at 150 miles per hour and gusts of 185. I just sent him what might be the last text I ever get to send him. He is so stubborn. What can one do but pray. He lives in a ranch style house and can't climb into the attic. I am pretty mad at him at this point, but hopeful.

Oh boy that is a toughie. Prayers for you both.

[sheehs1]

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Originally Posted by kimcdougc Well, my 83 year old dad lives in Port Arthur, Tx and won't leave his house. We all tried to get him to go. My sister and niece have all left town. Winds supposed to come in at 150 miles per hour and gusts of 185. I just sent him what might be the last text I ever get to send him. He is so stubborn. What can one do but pray. He lives in a ranch style house and can't climb into the attic. I am pretty mad at him at this point, but hopeful.

This is very tough. Will pray with you.

[bbbamI]

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Originally Posted by kimcdougc Well, my 83 year old dad lives in Port Arthur, Tx and won't leave his house. We all tried to get him to go. My sister and niece have all left town. Winds supposed to come in at 150 miles per hour and gusts of 185. I just sent him what might be the last text I ever get to send him. He is so stubborn. What can one do but pray. He lives in a ranch style house and can't climb into the attic. I am pretty mad at him at this point, but hopeful.

We can only do so much to convince others. Sending out hope for him, you and your family.