The cavalry ain't comin' to the destroyed Bahamas quickly enough

[gerntz]

Not all category 4s and 5s are the same. This time is different. Dorian was bigger, stronger, slower and more destructive than anything the Bahamas has seen in recorded history. Look at the photos and the videos of Abaco and Grand Bahama. Nothing like that has happened before.

How long is hurricane recorded history in the Bahamas? If not at least 500 - 1000 years, recorded history on weather (That's what Dorian was, not climate.) is pretty meaningless imo.

 

[gerntz]

This is new ground, despite your protestations to the contrary.

Surely you're not claiming something is different in weather due to less than 150 years of data, are you? As is, it's one data point of many.

 

[gerntz]

The Saffir-Simpson scale was created in 1971, and at that time the highest category hurricane was 5 (the scale is 1 to 5) with sustained winds of greater than 157 mph. Hurricane Dorian had sustained winds of 185 mph. If you follow the same progression of the scale, then Category 6 would be sustained winds of 183 or higher and Dorian would be a Category 6. But of course the scale doesn't go that high since the creators of the scale did not anticipate a storm of such intensity.

This is different. The Bahamas has not been hit with a Category 6 hurricane before. Thousands of people have already evacuated Grand Bahama and Abaco, and thousands more are lined up desperately waiting to leave because their homes and livelihoods have been destroyed. This has never happened before, despite the fact that hurricanes have been hitting the Bahamas for centuries. I call this new ground.

First off, Dorian only ties for the 2nd highest sustained hurricane winds in the Atlantic. Net, not something new. That it happened to hit the B's versus any other point is random chance.

You have no clue that B's have NEVER been hit with winds this high before. Show me all the data since the Year 1 A.D.

 

[gerntz]

But it IS different when the hurricane is much more severe than anything in recorded history .

That's only because recorded history in the Americas is so short & the B's are so small. Significant event, but doesn't justify any other conclusions.

 

[JoeWras]

Was there a Bering Strait before not long ago?

So. During glaciation, there was no strait. It was a land bridge. Or, call it a "theory", but it is about as incontrovertible as some of the other climate stuff. The theory part comes into play that the land bridge allowed humans to migrate from Asia to N. America, about 15,000 years ago before the glaciers melted too much, but while things were getting warmer.

Overall, shores and islands are very dynamic, and have been forever. I grew up in Chicago about 2 miles away from the lake. 12,000 ago, it is agreed that the apartment I grew up in was on the beach of the Lake. It is obvious by the sand, and the ridge line (there's actually a road called "Ridge"). The dynamic changes of the Great Lakes 10 to 15 thousand years ago is really fascinating. This was during a period of rapid climate change with massive melting glaciers.

Likewise, the ocean shorelines (and islands) were also undergoing massive change.

Change slowed after the rapid inter glacial warming stabilized, but not completely. Change continues. Always.

 

[JustCurious]

You have no clue that B's have NEVER been hit with winds this high before. Show me all the data since the Year 1 A.D.

Even if I did have that data, it would not prove that it never happened.

 

[JustCurious]

But he's not debating it. He's stating it as an inarguable fact.

I agree. It's always changed/not been constant.

Anyone who denies that our climate is changing dramatically and unnaturally due to the introduction of greenhouse gasses by human activity is simply not aware of the science. It is an inarguable fact.

 

[homestead]

Samaritan's Purse has airlifted our Emergency Field Hospital and a medical team to the Bahamas, at the request of the World Health Organization and the Bahamas government. The 40-bed mobile facility can receive up to 100 patients daily and features an operating room with capacity for 10 surgeries per day, as well as an obstetrics ward with delivery room.

Samaritans's Purse

 

[JustCurious]

Surely you're not claiming something is different in weather due to less than 150 years of data, are you? As is, it's one data point of many.

If my claim was based on the single event of hurricane Dorian, I would agree that is not sufficient. But it's not.

 

[aja8888]

Anyone who denies that our climate is changing dramatically and unnaturally due to the introduction of greenhouse gasses by human activity is simply not aware of the science. It is an inarguable fact.

I have to agree,....the climate in my yard changes daily....72 F and cloudy this morning at 7:00 AM, 90 F by noon and then it rained this afternoon! Wow! Nuts!

 

[NW-Bound]

Whether the climate is changing or not, the fact is that unprecedented events happen all the time. This time it is Dorian over the Bahamas. Last time, it was Harvey over Houston. Earlier it was Katrina in New Orleans.

We could have had hurricanes that strong in the past, but they were out in the ocean or hit sparsely populated areas, and did not cause the same human misery.

It is cold-hearted to say that people in these disaster areas should have known the risks, and it is their fault for not being prepared.

 

[Winemaker]

Anyone who denies that our climate is changing dramatically and unnaturally due to the introduction of greenhouse gasses by human activity is simply not aware of the science. It is an inarguable fact.

The industrial age did not start until 1760 and we had climate change for the 4.5 billion years before it.The Mini-Ice Age was from 1300 to 1870. " Recorded history" in weather records means 1870 to present day. Thermometers used for weather records were not standardized until WWI, and have been adjusted several times since 2000. Those are inarguable facts. I could very well blame any change in climate on the amount of concrete that is in use today as opposed to 1870, which wasn't even in use then.

This thread is not about climate change so why do you keep bringing it up?

 

[marko]

Whether the climate is changing or not, the fact is that unprecedented events happen all the time. This time it is Dorian over the Bahamas. Last time, it was Harvey over Houston. Earlier it was Katrina in New Orleans.

We could have had hurricanes that strong in the past, but they were out in the ocean or hit sparsely populated areas, and did not cause the same human misery.
.

FWIW, The hurricane of 1635 that hit New England was one of the worst in history as far as wind speeds but because there were so few people at the time had limited impact. It is considered to be the most intense hurricane in New England history.

 

[Midpack]

This thread is not about climate change so why do you keep bringing it up?

+1. He/she seems to have an agenda, wants to provoke a debate, already has his/her mind made up. Yawn...

 

[RAE]

The Saffir-Simpson scale was created in 1971, and at that time the highest category hurricane was 5 (the scale is 1 to 5) with sustained winds of greater than 157 mph. Hurricane Dorian had sustained winds of 185 mph. If you follow the same progression of the scale, then Category 6 would be sustained winds of 183 or higher and Dorian would be a Category 6. But of course the scale doesn't go that high since the creators of the scale did not anticipate a storm of such intensity.

This is different. The Bahamas has not been hit with a Category 6 hurricane before. Thousands of people have already evacuated Grand Bahama and Abaco, and thousands more are lined up desperately waiting to leave because their homes and livelihoods have been destroyed. This has never happened before, despite the fact that hurricanes have been hitting the Bahamas for centuries. I call this new ground.

JustCurious, I am in complete agreement with you. This is most certainly new ground, and I expect more and potentially even stronger hurricanes in the future, fueled by climate change. But, you're not going to get anywhere on this forum by presenting facts about climate change, as there are quite a few science-deniers on the forum. Facts and hard data don't mean anything to some people, as their minds are made up. I'll just leave it at that - no real point in debating this further here.

 

[RAE]

+1. He/she seems to have an agenda, wants to provoke a debate, already has his/her mind made up. Yawn...

Oh, come on Midpack. JustCurious brought up climate change in response to a comment from you about why Dorian was different than other hurricanes that impacted the Bahamas. He was simply trying to respond to your question, and the answer (which I happen to agree with) is that climate change has and is causing storms like Dorian to be stronger than anything seen in recent history.

Some of the comments I've seen in this thread are the same nonsense you can find anywhere in an internet debate about climate change. "The climate has always been changing, there were glaciers here 12,000 years ago, blah, blah". That line of thought completely disregards the fact that the RATE of climate change over the last 50+ years is unlike anything the earth has seen over the last 800,000+ years. Here is a graph clearly showing the rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1950, for those interested:

I don't expect to change anyone's mind with these facts, as I know some people still won't comprehend them. I do feel obligated, however, to respond to your insulting comment about JustCurios and his supposed "agenda". I think your last post (and the "yawn") was a bit much.

 

[Just_Steve]

The new normal is America first and we really don't care what happens to anyone else. We won't ask for their help and they shouldn't expect ours.


Oh, and get off our lawn and borders!

Maybe the Crown should take care of their former subjects.

 

[samclem]

Thanks for the interesting discussion.