The Coming Generational Storm

[charlie]

I am currently reading Scott Burn's book. It is
very sobering and insightful. Here is a link to
several of his recent columns on this subject:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...readers/stories/SBacctgenreader.81d06443.html

Cheers,

Charlie

 

[indymom]

My son with the MBA says he is looking forward to when we boomers are out of the way in "career job" terms, thus leaving a backwash situation of plentiful jobs that will pay more due to worker shortages. Having lived thru predictions of a new Ice Age, a Population Bomb, and I forget what else, my opinion is "who really knows?"

 

[Eagle43]

I think Mr. Burns is correct. The sight of 77 million retirees on the way to the golf course while the 30/40 year olds go to work is gonna annoy the young ones and they gonna get tired of paying the bill quickly. I hope Mr. Burns presents some solutions. And I hope he tells me where to invest to reap benefits of the storm.

 

[Bill Clinton]

I'm enjoying the golf course while my wife pays the bills.

 

[Mountain Mike]

Just because there is a generational problem on a macro scale does not necessarily need to mean that you will suffer by it.

Those who say that retirement age "must be raised" because of the boomers must only be talking about social security. Those of us who are not counting on SS are free to create our own plans and retire whenever we are able to. Those counting on SS as the key to their retirement are actually indentured servants to a government who can, and most likely will, require them to work as long as they see fit.

The "boomer" retirees who have worked and saved all their lives DESERVE to be able to retire.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I think Mr. Burns is correct.  The sight of 77 million retirees on the way to the golf course while the 30/40 year olds go to work is gonna annoy the young ones and they gonna get tired of paying the bill quickly.  I hope Mr. Burns presents some solutions.  And I hope he tells me where to invest to reap benefits of the storm.

It just isn't going to happen. I think that Scott Burns would be the first to admit that the vast majority of Boomers have not saved enough to retire to the lifestyle that they want.

Most all of the Boomers that I know, plan to work until they drop at their desks. They have put off collecting SS until they are 70.

 

[Marshac]

I am currently reading Scott Burn's book.  It is
very sobering and insightful.  Here is a link to
several of his recent columns on this subject:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...readers/stories/SBacctgenreader.81d06443.html

Cheers,

Charlie

This is a repost from another thread I started awhile back on the same subject-

I came across this lecture by Laurence Kotlikoff, the "brains" behind "The Coming Generational Storm" (no offence to Burns, but Kotlikoff DID write the paper)

The Video: http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/202/
The Paper which lead to the book: http://econ.bu.edu/kotlikoff/GenerationalStorm.pdf

He talks about the problems facing the US, and talks about what you can do about it. The Q&A session is full of good information as well. Overall, very depressing, but nice in the sense that he validates everything I have been telling my friends

Anyways, if you have an hour, I highly reccomend you get some popcorn, pull up a chair, and enjoy!

If you enjoyed the movie, check out the MIT lecture video.

 

[Spanky]

There are so talks about fixing social security. Why don't we focus more on fixing public pensions? See the following about pensions at the expense of local tax payers :

http://www.freep.com/news/mich/pension13e_20041213.htm

 

[Marshac]

"Today, the wages for public workers are generally comparable to private industry, and sick leave, vacations and holidays are better," Williams said.

I call B.S. As a public employee, my pay is slightly below market, "job security" (one argument for lower pay) in an era of shrinking budgets is an illusion, and my retirement plan blows. I'm only still in the job until the girl finishes up college, and I can go after a different degree.

The loopholes that this article talks about were real (and I stress "were"- past tense), and many states have taken corrective action already.... and IMO, too far in the opposite direction. Would you be happy with a 401k with NO matching contributions?

 

[Spanky]

I'm only still in the job until the girl finishes up college, and I can go after a different degree.

Just curious - what kind of degree are you going after? A guy at work just quit a couple of days to attend law school with full scholarship. He is almost 40 years. I guess he is tired of software and more interested in law. I studied the LSAT for anout 3 weeks and was tired of it, realizing law is pretty boring and often not very rational. The only reason to consider it was the attractive compensation of being a patent lawyer.

Would you be happy with a 401k with NO matching contributions?

I used to work for small company. It did not have any 401K matching contributions, stock purchase plan, or bonus. However, the work envirnoment was much better than the current work conditions under which I am working even though the benefits are good - 15% bonus, 401k matching contributions in company stock (bummer), and stock purchase at 15% discount with no holding period requirement.

 

[Marshac]

Just curious - what kind of degree are you going after?

MBA. From talking to admissions at UW, it's much harder to go back for another BA than it is to get into a grad program.... so I will go into the MBA program, and pick up a BA in accounting (for a CPA) while i'm at it  

However, the work envirnoment was much better than the current work conditions under which I am working even though the benefits are good - 15% bonus, 401k matching contributions in company stock (bummer), and stock purchase at 15% discount with no holding period requirement.

Good point, but you have to admit... when you think "high technology", "cutting edge", or "an office filled with happy employees"... does a government office come to mind? There's a reason we're so surly on the phone

 

[Spanky]

Marshac,

MBA is nice. What is UW? Is it University of Washington or Wisconsin?

Spanky

 

[Marshac]

Washington.

I have watched some of their MBA classes and guest lectures on the UW cable channel here, and have been very impressed by the quality of their business school professors (and their guest speakers!). I'm looking forward to a few years back at school  

I got into IT (although my degree is biz admin) because I like computers and such... after I started working and began to apply some of the things I learned in school (mostly finance) to my own life, I discovered something horrible.... I really enjoyed finance. Now it's just a waiting game.... I finally see something I would really like to do..... but i'm forced to do something else because of money. Fortunately, this is a short-term problem for me (unlike many), but the experience of it will shape all of my future years.

Maybe if I behave myself on the board, one of the former "captains of industry" here will write a nice letter of recommendation for me  

I wont hold my breath.

BTW- 200th post! How many until 5 stars?

 

[Nords]

It just isn't going to happen. I think that Scott Burns would be the first to admit that the vast majority of Boomers have not saved enough to retire to the lifestyle that they want.

Most all of the Boomers that I know, plan to work until they drop at their desks. They have put off collecting SS until they are 70.

I'm waiting for the research papers that will analyze that inconsistency. Boomers are either retiring en masse or working forever because they haven't saved or working forever because they're bored (another codeword for "penniless"). C'mon, guys, pick one!

Washington. I have watched some of their MBA classes and guest lectures on the UW cable channel here, and have been very impressed by the quality of their business school professors (and their guest speakers!). I'm looking forward to a few years back at school.

I've been impressed by UW's distance-learning programs. One of my co-workers earned his MSEE with dozens of lunchtime & evening website sessions. Now he's employed at an Oregon EE consulting company and he's probably in UW's EE PhD program.

If you're getting a masters with an accounting degree, maybe it's worth a look at govt comptroller listings. There's a desperate need for GS-11s-to-14s who can manage money!

 

[flipstress]

I hope Mr. Burns presents some solutions.  And I hope he tells me where to invest to reap benefits of the storm.

I just finished the book--it was quite interesting and I didn't want to put it down. It describes the problem in terms of demographics and talks about the short-sightedness of government officials and politicians and how they dissemble the enormity of the fiscal gap. It presents generational accounting, looking at the fiscal gap not just for the current budget year but way into the future--decades to see present generations' burden and future generations' burden--and not just for a limited or specific slice--like SS alone or Medicare alone or Medicaid alone--but all the government obligations.

The authors do offer policy solutions and label them "menu of pain" and "menu of delayed pain", warning that the more we wait on the solutions, the more painful they will get. However, they believe that the government officials and politicians will not be adopting them, so in the end, they do have advice for individuals.

The individual advice seems geared towards surviving the storm, rather than reaping benefits from it. The authors foresee a future of higher taxes, curtailed benefits, and higher inflation. Their advice: save 'til it hurts, protect yourself from finance companies' malfeasance (false promises, wrong targets, excessive fees), buy a house (for imputed income that's not taxable), diversify beyond a core portfolio of index funds (inflation-protected securities, energy, precious metals, foreign equities and currencies--or unhedged instruments), and eat broccoli (keep healthy).

flipstress

 

[arrete]

I'm afraid that included in the people that will be clobbered by this storm are the Baby Boomers who have saved for retirement. Bet there will suddenly be higher taxes on retirement accounts and other stuff. Probably because we are "rich". Sigh. :-/

arrete

 

[Eagle43]

Bingo! Go to the head of the class!

 

[Spanky]

Their advice: save 'til it hurts,
flipstress

or til your spouse call you "cheap".