The Electric Vehicle Thread

[Out-to-Lunch]

It’s also comparing a $39K Tesla to a $25K Camry. But in reality a Camry with features comparable to a Model 3 would be closer to $35K.

This may be true. But it was not I who chose this model Camry for the comparison, nor was it I who chose a fictitious $45k Camry for a speculative comparison.

If these venture capitalists (their words, not mine, your link, not mine) had upselected to a Camry "with features comparable to a Model 3," do you think they would have also concluded that its resale value would be a poor fraction of its purchase price (as they did for the down-market Camry)?

You know what? I am sorry I argued the point that much. Is this a fair statement of where EV prices are now: If they are not at price parity yet, they are getting close, especially at the high end? Is that a fair assessment?

 

[ncbill]

This article compares the five year cost of ownership of a Model 3 to a $25k Camry. The Model 3 has a lower total cost over five years due to lower maintenance and operating costs.

https://loupventures.com/tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-slightly-cheaper-than-a-camry/

Except it ignores the hybrid option...e.g. Toyota doesn't charge much of a premium for the hybrid powertrain (only ~$800 for the RAV4) but that gets you much improved mpg...IIRC, 50% better in the RAV4, and almost double for the Camry.

The new Toyota Sienna minivan now comes with only a hybrid powertrain.

A premium of only ~$1,000 for the hybrid option is more attractive to the mass-market customer versus $10,000+ for a pure EV.

I can see more manufacturers following Toyota and making at least some of their vehicles hybrid-only...that option is "good enough" for most buyers.

 

[Ready]

Hybrids do offer better mpg efficiency for a relatively small premium. But plug in hybrids go a step further. They can drive up to 40+ miles on pure battery power. So if you use your car for short daily commutes, you could theoretically never need gasoline for daily driving. But you have the long range and quick refuel ability of a traditional ICE vehicle. Of course these models still require all of the regular maintenance that any ICE vehicle would require.

I like the Toyota RAV4 Prime. If we needed an SUV and could not go pure EV we would be looking at that one as a serious option.

 

[ls99]

Haven't been following this thread closely and missed this if it was previously posted:

Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption - Real World vs. EPA

Testing Tesla's Range Anxiety - The Retest

Edmunds tested 17 EVs to compare their EPA estimated range to real world. One well-known EV manufacturer's models all failed to achieve their advertised range, asked for a retest and got it. The results are...complicated.

I'm going to step away now, grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

Seems Tesla is in the same boat roughly as VW Diesel's programming to fit EPA mileaga and emissions test results for publication. Yes VW paid for their methodology. Though supposedly EV's are less enviromentally dirty overall than ICE. That is up for lively debate. Let's hear from the EV brigade.

 

[jabbahop]

We own our 2nd Tesla model s - 2019 Tesla model S (360 miles rated range) and a 2012 VW Touareg Diesel (600+ rated range)

We drive the tesla 2500 miles between Vermont and Utah each fall and spring (snowbirding). While Tesla superchargers make it easy to cross the country, there is no question that we stop more often and it takes more time overall with the Tesla than if we took the VW. However we find that having a 20 minute (or so) stop every couple of hours makes the overall trip quite enjoyable. We still will choose the VW for our off road and longer day trip adventures in the west. Not quite as comfortable trip but easier than having to plan around charging in more rural areas.

In the future we expect more chargers off the beaten path and faster charging. Some of the new truck/SUV EV models with large batteries/range should allow us to move retire the VW in 3-5 years but right now it is the best tool for the job.

My mom and dad has their 10 year old Prius die and they must have looked @ 20 different hybrids but eventually chose a Tesla model 3. They preferred how it drove and how comfortable it was. I was surprised since they aren’t techies and live in a high rise condo with no charging but were willing to drive to the public chargers when needed. I expect to get a number of “how do I” calls over the next few months ;-)

 

[Ready]

Seems Tesla is in the same boat roughly as VW Diesel's programming to fit EPA mileaga and emissions test results for publication. Yes VW paid for their methodology. Though supposedly EV's are less enviromentally dirty overall than ICE. That is up for lively debate. Let's hear from the EV brigade.

I don’t follow the comparison between VW and Tesla. Tesla submits their cars to the EPA, a government agency, and the EPA tests them and publishes their range and mpg estimates. Tesla only defended the EPA’s estimates in that article by explaining the buffer zone. But Tesla was not the entity that came up with those figures.

In VW’s case they manipulated their engines with software to artificially pass a test while only operating in clean mode under testing conditions but not under normal driving conditions.

And who believes the numbers published by the EPA anyway? When was the last time you found the EPA’s mpg estimates for ICE vehicles to be accurate?

 

[ls99]

"The test data used to determine fuel economy estimates is derived from vehicle testing done at EPA's National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and by vehicle manufacturers who submit their own test data to EPA."

Bolding added by me,

https://www.epa.gov/compliance-and-fuel-economy-data/data-cars-used-testing-fuel-economy

 

[Ready]

"The test data used to determine fuel economy estimates is derived from vehicle testing done at EPA's National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and by vehicle manufacturers who submit their own test data to EPA."

Bolding added by me,

https://www.epa.gov/compliance-and-fuel-economy-data/data-cars-used-testing-fuel-economy

Yes, of course the government requests preliminary data from the manufacturer. Then they validate that data with their own testing. If they find the data to be inaccurate, they correct it. And everyone knows that EPA numbers are just estimates. The EPA states this explicitly on their website.

An EV’s range will vary substantially based on a number of factors, including average speed, temperature, altitude, and passenger load. There is no one range figure that can accommodate all of these variables. There are documented examples of a Model 3 achieving 600 miles on a single charge by driving at low speeds. But of course nobody is going to drive this way so it’s purely an exercise to demonstrate how much variation can occur based on all of the stated variables.

https://insideevs.com/news/338059/update-3-tesla-model-3-sets-new-range-record-at-6062-miles/

 

[Out of Steam]

I would love for you to be correct. However, the main reason that this article concludes that the cost of ownership is lower for a Model 3 is that they assume it will retain more of its value than the Camry.

Tesla resale values seem to be in a bubble of their own. Failure to meet the company's aggressive sales claims, including multi-decade longevity with near-zero maintenance costs and "full self-driving", could easily crash resale value of Teslas.

 

[Bamaman]

There are some really good videos about Tesla's online--and on YouTube.com.

I just don't like the way the whole direct marketing concept. The lack of service for those not in large cities. How there are virtually no mechanics that know anything about working on them. The unavailability of local body shops to make repairs. How they won't sell you parts. The shoddy body construction on some cars. The ultra high technology electronics.

I know performance is incredible. But I don't want to have to plot out charging stations on my trips which can be much farther than 300 or 600 miles.

It's obvious that Ford's Mach E Mustang is going to be tough competition, especially for the price. And Ford knows how to build a vehicle, and they have dealers everywhere for service. Don't look to have to send a Mach E 200 miles to get body work done either.

For now, I'll just stick with Toyota's hybrids with their 600 mile range and incredible durability. I'm in a 2021 Venza presently getting 42 mpg and it is on par in quality of a Lexus.

 

[braumeister]

I'm in a 2021 Venza presently getting 42 mpg and it is on par in quality of a Lexus.

DW just bought a 21 Venza and is utterly in love with it. She says it's by far the best feeling she has ever had about a new car. I have to admit it's pretty nice.

 

[explanade]

Around here, Bay Area, when RAV4 Primes first became available, local dealers put $5k premiums on them and so you had prices approaching $55k before tax and license.

 

[Ready]

Around here, Bay Area, when RAV4 Primes first became available, local dealers put $5k premiums on them and so you had prices approaching $55k before tax and license.

That’s pretty typical when a new vehicle comes out and it’s in short supply. Hopefully that has ended. If you can get a RAV 4 Prime for a decent price now I think it’s a great buy because it still qualifies for the full $7,500 federal rebate. That makes it a very attractive option for someone looking for an SUV and wanting some of the efficiencies of an EV while still having access to an ICE motor for longer trips.

 

[REWahoo]

That’s pretty typical when a new vehicle comes out and it’s in short supply. Hopefully that has ended. If you can get a RAV 4 Prime for a decent price now I think it’s a great buy because it still qualifies for the full $7,500 federal rebate. That makes it a very attractive option for someone looking for an SUV and wanting some of the efficiencies of an EV while still having access to an ICE motor for longer trips.

True Car says they are currently selling for $1,000 above MSRP in my area.

 

[Ready]

True Car says they are currently selling for $1,000 above MSRP in my area.

Still not too bad if you can take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit. In California you would get additional state credits.

When we bought our first Tesla we paid $49K and received a $7,500 federal credit.

For our second Tesla we paid $43K for the exact same car, but the federal credit was only $3,750.

So our experience has been that as the credit shrinks, so does the price. So you don’t really save the full amount of the credit. But it still can be a decent deal if the car meets your needs.

 

[GTFan]

True, but at 3x the cost. If there is an outlet or charger at your destination (more and more common) you can skip the gas station there and charge overnight.

I do not deny that ICE have time advantages over EV on long trips, but not always and the advantage will continue to shrink.

According to Tesla 200 miles can be added in 15 minutes via a supercharger (currently).

We're talking about charging during long trips, not whether your destination has an outlet.

ICE will always have a time advantage over EVs on long trips based on refill time alone, not to mention that you don't have to plot out your journey or go out of your way to find a good charger (this is a big issue, a lot of chargers have problems or don't work at max rate with all cars).

Non-Tesla EVs are the issue with charging here and always have been. The only advantage EVs have over ICE for trips is cost (both in fuel and maint).

 

[Chuckanut]

Here's an interesting article on bi-directional charging. VW seems to think it's a good idea for EVs to be able to pump electricity back into the grid to help balance the load.

https://electrek.co/2021/04/06/vw-electric-vehicles-bi-directional-charging-next-year/#more-175051

Some companies and electric utilities have been exploring the idea of using a fleet of electric vehicles equipped with bidirectional charging to help balance the grid when needed.
With big enough fleets, it could provide very valuable grid services by taking back some power from thousands of vehicles that don’t need it. In return, those EV owners would get compensated by the electric utility for the use of their battery pack.

 

[oneill225]

We're talking about charging during long trips, not whether your destination has an outlet.

ICE will always have a time advantage over EVs on long trips based on refill time alone, not to mention that you don't have to plot out your journey or go out of your way to find a good charger (this is a big issue, a lot of chargers have problems or don't work at max rate with all cars).

Non-Tesla EVs are the issue with charging here and always have been. The only advantage EVs have over ICE for trips is cost (both in fuel and maint).

The charging infrastructure is growing, daily. Tesla has a big lead with their fast chargers, but the market for new charging stations is starting to bloom across the U.S. and the world. The future of EV charging on "long trips" is bright and soon the complaints you raise will be a non-issue.

Regarding destination charging; on a long trip (days long) drivers will likely stay at a motel/hotel during their travel and most of those motel/hotels have EV chargers (usually free). That is what I was referring to. Also, if only one stop is required on a long trip, that can be combined with a meal. If so, a 30 minute charge/lunch break will not cost the driver any time vs an ICE vehicle stop/lunch break.

The long trip advantage for ICE over EV (Tesla or otherwise) is minimal for most drivers and fading quickly. A few years from now, we can expect EV range to match or exceed ICE range and fast chargers will be ubiquitous. Unless you are a hard core road warrior who relishes 12-hour driving days, only stopping for gas, long-trips will look pretty much the same for EVs or ICE except EV will also be cheaper.

 

[ncbill]

The charging infrastructure is growing, daily. Tesla has a big lead with their fast chargers, but the market for new charging stations is starting to bloom across the U.S. and the world. The future of EV charging on "long trips" is bright and soon the complaints you raise will be a non-issue.

Regarding destination charging; on a long trip (days long) drivers will likely stay at a motel/hotel during their travel and most of those motel/hotels have EV chargers (usually free). That is what I was referring to. Also, if only one stop is required on a long trip, that can be combined with a meal. If so, a 30 minute charge/lunch break will not cost the driver any time vs an ICE vehicle stop/lunch break.

The long trip advantage for ICE over EV (Tesla or otherwise) is minimal for most drivers and fading quickly. A few years from now, we can expect EV range to match or exceed ICE range and fast chargers will be ubiquitous. Unless you are a hard core road warrior who relishes 12-hour driving days, only stopping for gas, long-trips will look pretty much the same for EVs or ICE except EV will also be cheaper.

Level 2 chargers might be free, not so much Level 3, though to be fair, Tesla charges the least...some of the rates I've seen posted for other companies are so high you'd only use them were all other options exhausted.

But I wouldn't take it on a long drive, since with current, mass-market EV ranges (most are only ~200 miles) you're looking for a Level 3 charger after only ~3 hours...30+ minutes every time, assuming there's always an open charger...but since it only charges to 80% now you've only got another ~2 hours before you need to find another Level 3 charger...lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[oneill225]

Level 2 chargers might be free, not so much Level 3, though to be fair, Tesla charges the least...some of the rates I've seen posted for other companies are so high you'd only use them were all other options exhausted.

But I wouldn't take it on a long drive, since with current, mass-market EV ranges (most are only ~200 miles) you're looking for a Level 3 charger after only ~3 hours...30+ minutes every time, assuming there's always an open charger...but since it only charges to 80% now you've only got another ~2 hours before you need to find another Level 3 charger...lather, rinse, repeat.

Fair enough, but the bigger point is that EVs do currently meet the needs of many (if not most) drivers and that the range/recharging issues for others will continue to be improved upon.

This is the first year that Tesla has faced any real competition. Next year, we will see even more EV cars and trucks (including big rigs), more charging options, and lower prices. The market for EVs will continue to grow and the market for ICE will start a noticeable decline.

 

[JoeWras]

When I was running between NC and IL when my dad was sick, the last thing I wanted to do was make it a nice drive with long, lazy stops.

Now when DW and I go cross country, we sometimes do operate that way. We use mostly routes near major interstates, so perhaps it would be possible to do the lazy stop for charging thing.

 

[explanade]

Destination chargers will become increasingly important.

They need level 2 chargers which can charge overnight.

It doesn't even have to be a long trip. Say you go for a long weekend or a getaway that is about 2-3 hours away.

You should get there on a single charge. But wherever you stay, you have to be able to have a fully charged car after plugging in overnight.

So that might rule out smaller boutique hotels or B&Bs.

On booking.com, you can filter for places which have chargers or not.

 

[Midpack]

I wonder how available hotel and other destination chargers are? If you get to your hotel and there are more cars in need than charging stations then what? Or what stops someone from plugging their car in at 8:00pm and leaving it overnight so no one else has access? Don’t know, just wondering. Imagine an overnight trip to a nice hotel, and you can’t get a charge overnight?

 

[braumeister]

Here is a trip I make with some frequency, so I'm very familiar with it. Total distance is 580 miles, and I normally make three stops, two for fuel and one for lunch. Total trip time is right around 9.5 hours.

If I use the Tesla trip planner and select the Model Y Long Range (which is what I would be most likely to buy), it says the total trip would be 11 hours with four charging stops (total of 110 minutes). I think the extra hour and a half for an all-day drive is not too unreasonable so I can at least say it's within the realm of possibility for me.


But here is another trip I make, although less often. Total distance is 670 miles, and there would be four stops, three for fuel and one for lunch. Total trip time a little over 11 hours. A long day but acceptable.

The Tesla equivalent would be 13 hours, again with four charging stops, total of 130 minutes. Now we have two hours longer for the trip, mostly for charging, and a 13 hour drive is not really acceptable to me, while 11 hours is.

And this assumes there will always be a charging station available. I already know there will always be a gas station available.

My point in all this is simply to show that while an EV is certainly on my horizon, it's not quite there yet for me. I admit I'm in a small minority that actually makes long drives with some frequency, but I think about half the people on my street are in the same group. Living out here in flyover country is different from those on the coasts who don't typically make these kinds of car trips (and also have more chargers available).

Maybe in another five years, but not yet.

 

[Chuckanut]

Or what stops someone from plugging their car in at 8:00pm and leaving it overnight so no one else has access? Don’t know, just wondering. Imagine an overnight trip to a nice hotel, and you can’t get a charge overnight?

I imagine the ongoing hookup charge will deter people from spending extra time charging their vehicle. I've heard that some places charge $1 a minute when one goes over the 5-10 period grace time to disconnect and drive off.

That said, the idea of being in Lone Tumbleweed, OK with no charger available still concerns me. I will stick to my Hybrid for a few more years.

Apologies to those from OK.