Vote for Pot? Can't Decide

[MichaelB]

Well, this morning's LA Times reports that the polls point to a rejection

California's marijuana legalization ballot initiative, Proposition 19, is trailing badly, according to a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll, which found likely voters opposing the measure 51% to 39%.

Until recently, the initiative had led in most polls with support from about half of the electorate. But supporters of the initiative have not raised enough money to run the television advertisements needed to reach voters across the state. Opponents of the measure have also not run an active television campaign, but historically, the burden of persuading voters usually falls to the proponents.

Prop. 19 trailing badly, poll shows - latimes.com

 

[ziggy29]

Well, this morning's LA Times reports that the polls point to a rejection
Prop. 19 trailing badly, poll shows - latimes.com

Anyone wonder how much of the funding against the initiative comes from the alcohol lobby?

 

[MichaelB]

Anyone wonder how much of the funding against the initiative comes from the alcohol lobby?

I had the same thought

 

[BTravlin]

Or the drug cartels?

 

[Nords]

California State liquor tax for this budget year is $354M. Tobacco is another $101M. I would expect the total state tax revenue from marijuana to be less than liquor, at least for the first couple of years.

Thanks!

I guess the next voter question would be how much would not be spent on marijuana anti-drug efforts.

Many years ago a submarine spent over a month trailing a sailboat carrying an illegal substance. At one point the crew was more than ready to take up a collection, surface the submarine, buy the damn cargo, turn it over to the Coast Guard, and go on liberty.

The operating & maintenance costs alone of that mission were in the millions of dollars...

 

[jimnjana]

Thanks!

I guess the next voter question would be how much would not be spent on marijuana anti-drug efforts.

Many years ago a submarine spent over a month trailing a sailboat carrying an illegal substance. At one point the crew was more than ready to take up a collection, surface the submarine, buy the damn cargo, turn it over to the Coast Guard, and go on liberty.

The operating & maintenance costs alone of that mission were in the millions of dollars...

wonder how many prison cells would be empty if pot felons were released.

 

[MasterBlaster]

wonder how many prison cells would be empty if pot felons were released.

I heard a statistic on that for California. They had around 1400 inmates incarcerated for pot related charges. Of those none were for minor possession charges. They were all (no exceptions) for either dealing or for possessing very large quantities with an intent to be a dealer. The conclusion is that the proposed law would have little effect on the prison population in California.

 

[Martha]

Another reason to vote for it, is that it would be interesting to see what happens if it passes.

My feelings exactly! I really love watching state vs. federal power issues.

 

[antmary]

I remember smoking pot in the 60's, but that lasted only a couple of years. You really can't go to work, study, or raise children stoned. I am in the middle of pot country, and don't know any functional 20's/30's/40's people who smoke pot on a regular basis. The operative word is functional. Daily smoking does not equal coping.

However, I am concerned with the criminal element. I am sick of seeing our beautiful national parks trashed with grow operations that include pesticides, and booby traps...and guns. The Mexican cartel threat is real, and it makes me angry to think that I have to be afraid to wonder from a forest trail. It is our forest.

I have a respect for every living thing, including botanicals. I think that marijuana, opium, cocoa leaf, etc. all were put here for a reason - the gift of medicine for certain ailments. Unfortunately it appears that we humans are way out of harmony with the natural world. If we were to teach children about the natural world in context, then, the pot culture would probably fade into a wide field that includes life-supporting bio-diversity. Envision a field of native grasses, wild flowers, medicinal roots, poppies, dandelion flowers, beautiful trees, marijuana here and there, blackberry scattered around, and even poison oak. Well, you get the idea...In essence, I ask, how can you wage war on a plant?

In other words, I vote "yes."

 

[MasterBlaster]

California's marijuana legalization ballot initiative, Proposition 19, is trailing badly, according to a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll, which found likely voters opposing the measure 51% to 39%.

Prop. 19 trailing badly, poll shows - latimes.com

 

[harley]

Prop. 19 trailing badly, poll shows - latimes.com

And this one from 2 days ago shows it leading 48% - 44%. SurveyUSA Election Poll #17421

The LA Times is violently opposed to legalization, so I'll have to read how they worded their questions. But the polls have been all over the place. I don't think anybody will be able to guess how this will turn out. I suspect it will be highly dependent on voter turnout, since Dem voters are more in favor by 2-1, and Repub voters are the opposite. And younger voters are in favor by about 4-1, but aren't expected to turn out this time like they did in 2008. It will be an interesting election.

Edit: I spent a few minutes looking for the poll questions, but couldn't find them. Transparency in the media, again.

 

[harley]

I heard a statistic on that for California. They had around 1400 inmates incarcerated for pot related charges. Of those none were for minor possession charges. They were all (no exceptions) for either dealing or for possessing very large quantities with an intent to be a dealer. The conclusion is that the proposed law would have little effect on the prison population in California.

I'm not sure that's all accurate. Even the 1400 dealers wouldn't need to be arrested if it were legal. People could grow it themselves or buy it legally.

Here's some info about the cost of enforcement in CA. From NORML, so take it with a couple grains of salt. But they pulled the info from law enforcement numbers, so it should be in the ballpark.

COST OF MARIJUANA ENFORCEMENT IN CALIFORNIA IS OVER $156 MILLION PER YEAR

The cost of marijuana enforcement in California currently can be estimated at over $156 million per year, as follows.

State prison
(1400 prisoners @ $25K per year) $35 million
Jail costs (est. 40% of prison population) $14 million
Felony prosecution, court & probation
(9900 felony cases, SF DA's office estimates $9250 per case) $90 million
Felony arrests 12,000 arrests @ $732/arrest* $8.7 million
Misdemeanor court costs
$100 court time/case, 48,000 cases) $4.8 million
Misdemeanor arrests ($300/arrest,* offset by fines) ----- $0
California Marijuana Suppression Program (OCJP) $3.8 million
Total $156.3 million
Not counted above are costs of non-helicopter surveillance and investigation by local sheriffs and police.
Also not counted are the substantial costs of criminal penalties to prisoners and their families. * Arrest costs based on report by State Office of Narcotics and Drug Abuse to the Cal. legislature "A First Report of the Impact of California's New Marijuana Law" (1977), adjusted for inflation.

 

[TromboneAl]

The feds stance on this is just a bluff. They don't have the manpower to enforce federal marijuana laws in CA.

That may be true for individual users, but for a big Central Valley farm operation, it wouldn't take much manpower. Just an email like this

Dear Large Farm Owner,

Your farm is growing an illegal substance. If you don't stop by tomorrow at 3 PM, we will arrest you and deport all your workers.

Sincerely,

Eric Holder
U.S. Attorney General

 

[Leonidas]

Many years ago a submarine spent over a month trailing a sailboat carrying an illegal substance. At one point the crew was more than ready to take up a collection, surface the submarine, buy the damn cargo, turn it over to the Coast Guard, and go on liberty.

They should try it from the front seat of a F150, it's a lot less comfortable than rolling around in the metal tube that comes complete with a chow facility, restrooms, TV/DVD, a bed and a relief shift!

That may be true for individual users, but for a big Central Valley farm operation, it wouldn't take much manpower. Just an email like this

Dear Large Farm Owner,

Your farm is growing an illegal substance. If you don't stop by tomorrow at 3 PM, we will arrest you and deport all your workers.

Sincerely,

Eric Holder
U.S. Attorney General

I'm looking forward to see how that all turns out. The Drunk Every Afternoon has been slightly castrated in favor of the WOT, but this is the sort of thing that would get some of those folks all up in a major tizzy. Question will be if Obama/Holder/Leonhart let them go after them. Up til now they've been restrained on the medial marijuana issue, but this is something very different.

Being a weed farmer, or marijuana clinic owner, will not be a good occupation to hold if somebody drops the leashes. They can't arrest them all, but what happens to those they do arrest will be very scary for the onlookers & contemporaries. Federal drug conspiracy cases are easy to make, they pass out time like Costco passes out free samples, and you do all the time you're sentenced to. Toss in some motivated asset seizure/forfeiture specialists and they'll seize everything the defendants own - including their hopes and dreams.

 

[Nords]

They should try it from the front seat of a F150, it's a lot less comfortable than rolling around in the metal tube that comes complete with a chow facility, restrooms, TV/DVD, a bed and a relief shift!

I think the worst part was sitting at periscope depth in shallow water (that at least one foreign country would perceive to be sovereign territorial waters, let alone an inland lake) having to watch the [-]San Miguel beer barge[/-] ferry drive back & forth all day. It went on for weeks while the sailboat crew was ashore doing whatever smugglin' druggies do to pass the time.

But you're right, the periscope video camera had a live feed into the wardroom & crew's mess so that everyone could [-]suffer together[/-] help the OOD keep an eye on things.

 

[Htown Harry]

Just thought I would pass on this reminder to all you Californians: Get out there and vote on Wednesday!

Cheech And Chong Get Out the Vote! from CheechAndChong

 

[harley]

Oh well, at least there was a serious discussion. First time in my lifetime. I guess all the stoners will have to go out and easily buy illegal weed without paying any taxes.

 

[dgoldenz]

It's not a matter of if, but when....it will eventually happen. Prop 19 going down is just delaying the inevitable.

 

[harley]

I agree. All in all, it's just another brick in the wall.

 

[ziggy29]

Looks like the alcohol industry's contributions won out.

 

[harley]

They didn't contribute that much, really. IMO it was the pressure from the feds and the scaremongering by the politicians (both parties) and the newspapers that pushed it over. That plus the big Republican turnout (for CA anyway). If it had been on the ballot in 2008 with the big wave of youth voters I suspect it would have won. Be interesting to see what happens in 2012. As the old Dodger fans always used to say, Wait till next year!

 

[youbet]

Oh well, at least there was a serious discussion. First time in my lifetime. I guess all the stoners will have to go out and easily buy illegal weed without paying any taxes.

If the total price of legal, taxed weed was significantly higher than the total price of illegal, untaxed weed, wouldn't folks just continue to buy the illegal stuff? Wouldn't the tax have to be kept at a trivial level to attract customers to the legal stuff?

 

[Elderdude]

On his HBO show last Friday night, (3 days after the election,) Bill Maher gave all his pot smoking friends a "heads up" to be sure to vote next Tuesday. Made me laugh.

Oh well, I don't think the charred seeds I saved from my mispent youth would germinate anyway.

 

[harley]

If the total price of legal, taxed weed was significantly higher than the total price of illegal, untaxed weed, wouldn't folks just continue to buy the illegal stuff? Wouldn't the tax have to be kept at a trivial level to attract customers to the legal stuff?

No. In every scenario I've seen (from both pro and anti legalization folks) even with a hefty tax the price of legal pot would be far less than half the price of illegal. That's a positive from the pro people, and a negative (for some reason) for the anti people.

On his HBO show last Friday night, (3 days after the election,) Bill Maher gave all his pot smoking friends a "heads up" to be sure to vote next Tuesday. Made me laugh.

Once again Maher steals his material without attribution.

Cheech And Chong Get Out the Vote! from CheechAndChong