Wow - We just had a near miss!

[audreyh1]

For you asteroid watchers:

How a City-Killing Asteroid Got So Uncomfortably Close to Earth
Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

On July 25, an asteroid measuring somewhere between 87 and 427 feet wide got unusually close to Earth. No scientists had even detected the asteroid until a few hours before it passed by the planet. While never a true threat, the rock known as Asteroid 2019 OK is still raising questions about Earth's readiness for a space-born natural disaster.
......
OK 2019's path took it within 45,360 miles of Earth, roughly one-fifth of the distance between here and the moon.

"It’s impressively close," said Michael Brown, of Monash University’s school of physics and astronomy, to the Sydney Morning Herald. "I don’t think it’s quite sunk in yet. It’s a pretty big deal. [If it hits Earth], it makes the bang of a very large nuclear weapon—a very large one.

Read in Popular Mechanics: https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a28552286/asteroid-brushes-by-earth/

 

[skipro33]

Wow! Impressive video animation;

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FaithfulOldfashionedIndianelephant-mobile.mp4

 

[Winemaker]

In the end, we are all dead. I can only deal with the things that I think I can control.

But it is scary, that it wasn't noticed that late, but if I knew it was going to strike the earth, imagine the terror one would have.

 

[joeea]

For you asteroid watchers:

How a City-Killing Asteroid Got So Uncomfortably Close to Earth
Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

That's why I'd never want to live in a city.

 

[jIMOh]

In the end, we are all dead. I can only deal with the things that I think I can control.

But it is scary, that it wasn't noticed that late, but if I knew it was going to strike the earth, imagine the terror one would have.

Maybe that is why the government did not tell us

 

[aja8888]

Maybe that is why the government did not tell us

I imagine all those politicians were crapp**g in their shorts while this was going on.

 

[joeea]

Maybe that is why the government did not tell us

Hint: Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

Nothing to do with "the government" here.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow! Impressive video animation;

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FaithfulOldfashionedIndianelephant-mobile.mp4

Yes, very impressive!

 

[34rlsa]

 

[target2019]

Deep space force tracking will save us from the next one.
[emoji106]

 

[ERD50]

When I hear about the asteroids, I always think in terms of so much space, what are the odds that a sizeable one would hit such a tiny target as earth in our lifetime?

But when they talk about coming closer than our Moon, that sounds a bit scary. I thought I'd do a little math to soothe my fears, but...

It turns out the distance between the Moon and Earth is only 30 Earth diameters (that surprised me, that's the thing about big numbers). IOW, 30 Earths would fit between the Earth and Moon. Hmmm, so that asteroid was 1/5th that distance away from Earth, only 6 Earth diameters? So from that view, a 1 in 6 chance that an asteroid in that general path could have hit the Earth, or maybe double that to consider each side of the Earth-to-Moon path?

Of course that assumes the asteroid is in the same plane as the Earth-Moon. So I guess you need to fill a circle that size with 'Earth diameters'? I'll leave that to someone better at geometry than me, or someone with a bunch of ping pong balls, glue and time on their hands.

-ERD50

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, it’s 240,000 miles to our moon, and this asteroid passed within 50,000 miles of us. That was extremely close, and amazing that we didn’t realize its trajectory heading right for us until a few hours before.

 

[REWahoo]

Better blow that dough before we all go.

 

[Alan]

Yes, it’s 240,000 miles to our moon, and this asteroid passed within 50,000 miles of us. That was extremely close, and amazing that we didn’t realize its trajectory heading right for us until a few hours before.

The problem with asteroids are that they are black, and the problem with space is that it is black so they are difficult to see....

 

[jIMOh]

Hint: Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

Nothing to do with "the government" here.

I think the democrats can use this as a failure of the space force.

 

[ERD50]

Yes, it’s 240,000 miles to our moon, and this asteroid passed within 50,000 miles of us. That was extremely close, and amazing that we didn’t realize its trajectory heading right for us until a few hours before.

Yes, but an 87 x 427 foot rock is a tiny, tiny target to see from more than 50,000 miles away! How far was it when they first detected it?

edit - oops, cross posted with some other answers to this....

Better blow that dough before we all go.

Or the volcano blows?

-ERD50

 

[RunningBum]

When I hear about the asteroids, I always think in terms of so much space, what are the odds that a sizeable one would hit such a tiny target as earth in our lifetime?

But when they talk about coming closer than our Moon, that sounds a bit scary. I thought I'd do a little math to soothe my fears, but...

It turns out the distance between the Moon and Earth is only 30 Earth diameters (that surprised me, that's the thing about big numbers). IOW, 30 Earths would fit between the Earth and Moon. Hmmm, so that asteroid was 1/5th that distance away from Earth, only 6 Earth diameters? So from that view, a 1 in 6 chance that an asteroid in that general path could have hit the Earth, or maybe double that to consider each side of the Earth-to-Moon path?

Of course that assumes the asteroid is in the same plane as the Earth-Moon. So I guess you need to fill a circle that size with 'Earth diameters'? I'll leave that to someone better at geometry than me, or someone with a bunch of ping pong balls, glue and time on their hands.

-ERD50

I don't think that math makes much sense. The odds would be based on how many asteroids are moving around in our solar system, effects of gravitational pull, etc. It's not how close that one asteroid came, it's how likely any asteroid will hit. Maybe there are so few asteroids that the odds are incredibly small another one will get anywhere near that close. Or maybe there are so many that it's inevitable that one will eventually hit again.

Unless there's something I don't know about many asteroids following a similar track to this one.

 

[Aerides]

Please let's not be tempted to bring completely irrelevant partisan politics into a fun thread...

 

[ERD50]

I don't think that math makes much sense. The odds would be based on how many asteroids are moving around in our solar system, effects of gravitational pull, etc. It's not how close that one asteroid came, it's how likely any asteroid will hit. Maybe there are so few asteroids that the odds are incredibly small another one will get anywhere near that close. Or maybe there are so many that it's inevitable that one will eventually hit again.

Unless there's something I don't know about many asteroids following a similar track to this one.

Agreed - I was thinking in terms of this asteroid, assuming it's path was somewhat randomized between that 1/5th Earth-Moon distance. And even that assumption is kinda wacky. Just trying to put some scale to it.

Then it would depend on the odds of another asteroid coming that close to Earth again, and I have no idea what that is, and the math is still fuzzy. The only data we have is the big one they tie to dinosaur die off, and a smaller one in Russia about 100 years ago? That would have been a big deal if it hit a populated area.

Then I guess you can estimate from known craters on Earth, plus some estimate of hitting water where they might cause damage through tsunamis?

Not gonna get much precision from that.

-ERD50

 

[JoeWras]

Of course that assumes the asteroid is in the same plane as the Earth-Moon. So I guess you need to fill a circle that size with 'Earth diameters'? I'll leave that to someone better at geometry than me, ...

That's not me, but I can lend a tiny bit to this!

It is now generally agreed upon that the solar system formed as an accretion disk. In the outskirts are the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud.

The Kuiper belt objects are in the same general plane as the earth. If disrupted, there's a good chance they'll be in the same general plane, or just a bit off. So when you start discussing odds, keep in mind there is a bunching that favors the plane. It is still much more than one earth diameter. The disruption events throw it out of the exact plane enough to help our odds quite a bit (i.e. many, many earth diameters). So, the geeks generally just catalog the "earth orbit crossers" knowing all the geometries involved. The odds are still good for us. But as mentioned above, they tend to be hard to see before found and cataloged. Ouch.

Now, the Oort cloud objects are different animals. They are in more of a sphere around the sun. Because they are out there, disruptions from other stars is possible. This is a source of completely out of the blue objects that come in any plane. Most are icy, which means they tend to be comets, which are typically easier to see early.

 

[JoeWras]

Wow! Impressive video animation;

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FaithfulOldfashionedIndianelephant-mobile.mp4

Really nice! When speaking of sharing the plane of orbit, this video captures that too! There are little "tails" on the orbit showing it below or above the plane of earth's. This is a good example of just how close it is to our plane, but thankfully not exactly our plane. This 2019 orbit was a bad confluence of the three axes of space. It would be interesting to see if there are (or have been) other orbits that share the earth's position but above or below the plane.

 

[sengsational]

I didn't study how a rock of this size would affect the earth, humanity and all of that, but I wonder if it hit, if it might have been better in the long run. Maybe there is a size of a rock that, if it hit and didn't cause too much of an upset, would put a legit network of spaceborn sensors out there and some kind of deployable nudge engines to prevent future impacts. See, the problem with me is that I read too much science fiction, hehe! But a world-wide scare might just bring us closer together and give us the excuse to protect ourselves from future harm.


Think of what happened last time you had a close call near accident in your car. Your heart pounded, you recovered after a minute, you went home, told your SO, and then forgot about it. That's what this is, from a human nature perspective. Compare that to when you really had a collision. I had an accident as a teen, and to this day, if I'm in a configuration that looks like the precursor to that accident, I'm hyper-alert.

 

[Gumby]

For you asteroid watchers:
How a City-Killing Asteroid Got So Uncomfortably Close to Earth
Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

That's why I'd never want to live in a city.

Stay away from water, too. It's more likely to hit water than anything else.

 

[ERD50]

It is interesting to speculate though, if "the powers that be" had a 2 hour warning, but couldn't predict with much accuracy where it would hit (maybe an area hundreds of miles across?) - what should they do?

I think a case can be made for saying nothing. There could be more harm done from a panic rush (like screaming "FIRE" in a theater), than the harm from the asteroid (meteor? space rock, whatever). In the process of trying to run away, some people might run into what ends up being the epicenter.

It would be hard to explain later, especially to family friends of those harmed, but it still might be best. I imagine these things have been thought out to some degree.

Hmmmm, could "first responders" be put on some sort of generic alert, w/o giving it away? Like everyone in a 300 mile area is told to report to duty, or be on high alert standby or something? Yeah, that would get out, but no one would know to drive in any certain direction, so that sort of panic stampede might be avoided?

-ERD50

 

[gerntz]

So how big a bang would that size make? Dinosaur wipe out bang? Or Siberian Tunguska Event size? Mega tsunami?