17,000

[omysteve]

As long as we are in secular bull market and not secular bear market. We will see in 5-10 years.....

Right. Just be careful along the way invest age appropriately e.g. don't put all your eggs in one basket (the market).

 

[eta2020]

Right. Just be careful along the way invest age appropriately e.g. don't put all your eggs in one basket (the market).

I am great in LBYM but not all that good in investing. So I will go with advice of someone smarter than me.

The Warren Buffett Guide to Retirement Investing - US News

IMO you don't need to be a genius to do well ......

 

[tuixiu]

Almost half way to 35,000...

 

[audreyh1]

And dare I say (shhh!),

"Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!"

Well, her whee from a couple of days a ago didn't cause an immediate sell off. Delayed reaction?

 

[heeyy_joe]

The economy is starting to roll, consumers will spend, and the velocity of money will quicken. Light quantitative easing tapping on the brakes. Buy on those dips.

 

[REWahoo]

We'll her whee from a couple of days a ago didn't cause an immediate sell off. Delayed reaction?

Live cat bounce.

 

[audreyh1]

Live cat bounce.

Great one, LOL!!

 

[W2R]

And dare I say (shhh!),

"Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!"

This one I take back. While my portfolio was at an all time high, still I didn't reach the milestone I was hoping to reach today. I was $1,276 short. There is no joy in Mudville.

 

[razztazz]

I do not want to sound like a clairvoyant here. But here's some stuff that's been rolling around and under observation for a while. I was hesitating mentioning this but since things really are looking unexpectedly rosy even for most pessimists, try this one on. To wit:

Someone recently, (can't recall the website but I'm sure some of you know who I'm talking about) did a study of someone who retired in the year 2000 with a 60/40 asset allocation. If I recall correctly, at the time of that little study the Year 2000 retiree is just about beginning to twist in the wind. It's looking bad. I said to myself: "Unless it's different this time and the 4% rule is being re-written we should be heading into a fairly long stretch of significant stock market go-uppness. Either that or some kind of economic collapse where the cost of living plummets but somehow doesn't affect their assets.

Even though I, personally, was sorta hopin' for one more Le Grand Buying Opportunity, I am convinced we have likely seen generational nominal low point for the stock market. Nobody saw 1982 until about 1985 or 86. I remember that because 1985 was when I first got into the stock market. We just might be out of the woods...?

 

[audreyh1]

I'm going to wait until [-]2917[/-] 2017 to call the end of this secular bear.

 

[bobafett]

Even though I, personally, was sorta hopin' for one more Le Grand Buying Opportunity, I am convinced we have likely seen generational nominal low point for the stock market. Nobody saw 1982 until about 1985 or 86. I remember that because 1985 was when I first got into the stock market. We just might be out of the woods...?

Even though i'm committed to ER already i'm cautiously pessimistic moving forward. I think there is going to be a long stretch of lean years.

I'm preparing for hibernation by holding enough cash to buffer myself and also DCA during a prolonged bear to offset potential lost years a bit.

The reason i'm saying this is that at the ground level things do not look good for most younger (20-30 something) generation of savers. Unemployment figures are in my opinion much higher than is stated. Even worse is underemployment of young 30 something professionals which I see often and was a casualty of myself.

Another trend is the decreasing consumerism of young adults and the delaying marriage. This seems to point towards less overall domestic consumption.

It's hard to see where this is going to go..

 

[Turboslacker]

Another amazing market fact is that NASDAQ nearing 10% below it's all time high. Been a long haul.


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[clifp]

Another amazing market fact is that NASDAQ nearing 10% below it's all time high. Been a long haul.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

Inflation matters. There has been 38% cumulative inflation between 2000 and today. By my calculation needs to top 2050 before it really hits and all time high and a lot more for the NASDAQ.

 

[foxfirev5]

Then for certain you should short the market ASAP



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Even when I'm certain I take no action deviating from my long term AA, repeat I will take no action... Like everything else my hunches are not very accurate. So when I forecast I take no action and keep it simple.

 

[REWahoo]

It's hard to see where this is going to go..

It always is.

 

[sanfanciscotreat]

Up 2 mill since retiring in 2010. I had enough then but now WOW.
Looking for a drop soon.

 

[pb4uski]

....
"Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!"

Now we are doomed.

 

[tuixiu]

This one I take back. While my portfolio was at an all time high, still I didn't reach the milestone I was hoping to reach today. I was $1,276 short. There is no joy in Mudville.

One morning a couple years back I looked at mint.com and we were about $50 short of a major milestone for net worth. Went to my wallet, wife's purse to pool the cash together... boom champagne time.

 

[tuixiu]

Another trend is the decreasing consumerism of young adults and the delaying marriage. This seems to point towards less overall domestic consumption.

This is interesting, since one also reads about these darn young people with instant gratification mind sets always with the latest electronic toys etc.

Be interesting to take a look at gov expenditure data over time by age group and get the scoop.

 

[W2R]

One morning a couple years back I looked at mint.com and we were about $50 short of a major milestone for net worth. Went to my wallet, wife's purse to pool the cash together... boom champagne time.

Good idea. After reading your post I checked my wallet but still didn't have enough to reach that milestone. Oh well. Maybe the market will go up on Monday, too.

It's not a big deal. I keep telling myself that if we did not have a number system based on powers of ten (which I have read is probably a primitive arrangement due to having 10 fingers), then it wouldn't be a milestone in the first place.

 

[tuixiu]

Quick! Sell something on eBay! You don't need that couch.

 

[NW-Bound]

Earlier today, I sold some shares of two of my most volatile holdings. They have been going up like mad, and of course they would drop the most. So, time to book some gains.

So far, I "saved" not quite $1K with the above move. However, my portfolio still drops $7K as of this writing, and MF results won't be known for a few more hours.

 

[NW-Bound]

One morning a couple years back I looked at mint.com and we were about $50 short of a major milestone for net worth. Went to my wallet, wife's purse to pool the cash together... boom champagne time.

I have an HSA account that got to $40K+ that is maintained by my wife, and kept off my Quicken screen. Then, I have also a few gold coins as keepsakes. Never thought of bringing them in as reinforcement to reach any milestone.

The problem with adding them to Quicken, whose bottom line is what I go by, is that you can do that only once.

And then, who knows what's in the day ahead? We may need many many gold coins to be added for a strenuous hang-on to that brief milestone. Not to scare anybody or anything, as we all are in the same boat.

 

[NW-Bound]

Earlier today, I sold some shares of two of my most volatile holdings. They have been going up like mad, and of course they would drop the most. So, time to book some gains.

So far, I "saved" not quite $1K with the above move. However, my portfolio still drops $7K as of this writing, and MF results won't be known for a few more hours.

Well, after MF reporting, my "losses" added up to a 5 figure.

And today with the market dropping even more, of course I wish I had sold off more. The DOW is at 16,885 now.

Has greed turned into fear? Nah! Not until we are down 20%. Then, I will try to overcome my fear to buy.

 

[NW-Bound]

Alcoa (symbol AA), one of my holdings, reported earnings after market close yesterday. It beat estimates, and its stock climbs some more. It has been doing nothing other than well ever since they kicked it out of the Dow Jones index. Heh heh heh...

As Alcoa always starts off the earning season, it sets the tone for the market. So, I bought back the few shares I sold a few days ago. Does that make me a day trader or what?

I saved myself around $1.5K in losses compared to what happened if I had held them (my entire portfolio "loss" is >20X more), but it is fun. A lot more fun than going to Las Vegas.