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Old 01-02-2009, 03:25 PM   #21
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NW -15.25% Overall portfolio -27.89%

401 and IRA contributions as well as the mortgage reduction are the difference.

Should recover to end of 2007 levels in 2 years if market returns average 5%.
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:35 PM   #22
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Income increased with 5.8% COLA, making the survivor pension a much higher "breadwinner" than the TSP-turned-annuity. No surprises there, all going according to plan.
2008 overall portfolio change -24.7 %, a bump in my FIRE highway, but I'm still not blinking.
No radical change in my home value. I still have 100% equity with no plans to move. The local housing market was not affected by national dropoffs, because there never was a bubble here in East Nowhere NY.
Years to recover? As long as it takes. I plan to continue the bonds = age rule, keeping a 50/50 AA +- 5%, and let things continue exactly as I planned before. A simple plan works fine.
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:44 PM   #23
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My net worth change in 2008 was +50%

Though my net worth wasn't that high in December 2007
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:54 PM   #24
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DH worked last year, so we continued to save. We are down 9.62%. As to when it will get better...I don't have a clue....
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Old 01-02-2009, 03:57 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by bbbamI View Post
As to when it will get better...I don't have a clue....
I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news, but it already has gotten better. The S&P 500 is up ~24% from the November low.
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Old 01-02-2009, 04:01 PM   #26
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I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news, but it already has gotten better. The S&P 500 is up ~24% from the November low.

Wow. Sure doesn't seem like it.
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Old 01-02-2009, 04:02 PM   #27
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Net worth down 19.2%, but I'm still working and my AA is probably more aggressive than most of the FIRE/SIRE crowd. History suggests projecting how long it will take to "recover" our NW is a waste of time - anything from 1 to 15 years or maybe never. But I'm still sleeping like a baby every night. Been here before, and will be here again.

Anyone who invested aggressively and thought a year like 2008 couldn't happen - has unfortunately learned a hard (but entirely predictable) lesson. 2009 could be as bad or worse...but hopefully we'll stabilize.
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Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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Old 01-02-2009, 04:10 PM   #28
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I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news, but it already has gotten better. The S&P 500 is up ~24% from the November low.
Yeah, I guess it is kind of good news. For instance, I update our financial spreadsheet once a month. Last month we were down only $5k instead of five figures from earlier updates.....
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Old 01-02-2009, 04:11 PM   #29
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Ye of little faith. S&P +28 Dow +258 today, there are a twenty more trading days left in Jan, so we could easily erase 2088, with the Jan effect.

Waiting for my end of year statement to do my calculations, but I am liking 2009 so far.
Ha-for sure! I'm up $40,000+ today. Won't take too many more until I am well. But one swallow doesn't make a spring, does it?

BTW, when I said-"It may never [recover]"-I didn't mean the markets, I meant my own retirement. As we all know the unceasing drag of living expenses can sink one's porfolio even as market averages recover.

ha
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Old 01-02-2009, 06:48 PM   #30
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Net worth down 10%, investments down 13%. Part-time consulting accounts for the difference. Also, got lucky -- starting building up cash in fall 2007 -- started DCA'ing back into stocks in late Oct.

House not included -- prices stable here.
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Old 01-02-2009, 06:51 PM   #31
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Wow. Sure doesn't seem like it.
Mostly because if you start at $1000, drop 48% and then come back 24% from the low, you still have (1000 * 0.52 * 1.24) = $644 -- still down 35.6% from the high. The problem is that if you lose X%, you have to come back a lot more than X% to get back to flatline.

In any event, it's nice to see some GREEN year-to-date numbers.
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Old 01-02-2009, 07:10 PM   #32
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In any event, it's nice to see some GREEN year-to-date numbers.
Well, the year is young, but ...

At close today (1/2/2009),

MF portion at 18% of portfolio, up 2.6%
Stock portion at 31% of portfolio, up 4.6%
MM + I-bond at 51% of portfolio, up 0%

Total : Up 1.9% while DJ up 2.9%, NASDAQ up 3.5%, SP500 up 3.2%.

Is it time to go full-bore from "fear mode" to "greed mode" yet?

PS. In case someone was thinking that I was reporting 2008 gains/losses, I was listing today's return (Year-to-date return !), not 2008 return that was -26% for me.
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Old 01-02-2009, 07:32 PM   #33
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Portfolio down roughly 20%. Really a pisser. Have no idea if I will ever recoup it all.
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Old 01-02-2009, 07:59 PM   #34
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Portfolio down roughly 20%. Really a pisser. Have no idea if I will ever recoup it all.
Look, S&P500's up 3.2% today. How many days like today does it take for you to get your 20%? Take some meds, and cheer up.
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Old 01-02-2009, 08:11 PM   #35
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A drop of 20% requires an increase of 30% within the year to break even with inflation.
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Old 01-02-2009, 08:18 PM   #36
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A drop of 20% requires an increase of 30% within the year to break even with inflation.
This is assuming 5% inflation. Any reason for choosing that amount? With no inflation, a 25% gain would make him flat.

Btw, his drawdown is not unusually large, very likely he will recoup it before long. A person must accept drawdowns if he invests in anything other than short term treasuries and CDs. And, since you introduced inflation into the equation, there are no "safe" investments available at this time which would even break even with 5% inflation.

Ha
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Old 01-02-2009, 09:16 PM   #37
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It's actually 4% inflation.

100 * .8 * 1.3 = 104

And we've been averaging higher than 4% this whole year.
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Old 01-02-2009, 10:21 PM   #38
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It's actually 4% inflation.

100 * .8 * 1.3 = 104

And we've been averaging higher than 4% this whole year.
Well, it's you against the market. The rates being forecasted by t-bonds and tips are very much lower than this.

Ha
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Old 01-02-2009, 10:29 PM   #39
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Well, it's you against the market. The rates being forecasted by t-bonds and tips are very much lower than this.

Ha
I'm getting a guaranteed 6.5% return on my investments at the moment. (the old mortgage or market debate)

Oh and by "we've been averaging over 4% all year" I was referring to the CPI inflation rate not my market returns which are actually -6% at the moment.
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Old 01-03-2009, 05:09 AM   #40
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Last five year returns
2008 -20.8%
2007 14.3%
2006 13.9%
2005 11.9%
2004 19.2%
Total 5 year 2.6%, due to lots of adding of money in last few years, so more recent returns count more.

Net worth up by 3% due to new money in
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