2015 stock market

[Spanky]

No. But I did belong to several IEEE societies and got their transactions and proceedings.

Were they helpful in your career?

 

[NW-Bound]

Indirectly, yes. Reading about other people's works kept me interested. In any profession or trade, one will do better if he keeps his passion.

There are other ways to achieve this, particularly with the Internet nowadays.

 

[ETFs_Rule]

Just wondering what the rooms thought of how the market has been reacting ?
Are you moving in or out or holding

Fear of a correction, I not sure what to think. I am holding firm and still buying bi monthly . Thought has crossed my mind to move to cash

If you are diversified into bonds then you don't worry about the next stock market crash. Anyone who does worry is not diversified.

 

[hnzw_rui]

Don't really know how I'm doing. Just have a biweekly auto-deposit set-up to coincide with my paycheck to Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 VFORX (Roth IRA) and automatic payroll deduction to the Aggressive Profile Portfolio in our 457b plan. The Roth IRA, I'll only need to change if/when the contribution limits are increased. The 457b contributions, I'll change when I get my step increase.

 

[mathjak107]

If you are diversified into bonds then you don't worry about the next stock market crash. Anyone who does worry is not diversified.

falling bond values may very well be the reason we have a down turn.

 

[samclem]

Don't really know how I'm doing. Just have a biweekly auto-deposit set-up to coincide with my paycheck to Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 VFORX (Roth IRA) and automatic payroll deduction to the Aggressive Profile Portfolio in our 457b plan. The Roth IRA, I'll only need to change if/when the contribution limits are increased. The 457b contributions, I'll change when I get my step increase.

Your "system" worked great for us. When I was working I very seldom looked at what our portfolio was doing--maybe every couple of years. I just knew I was buying more shares every month, and that those shares would be churning out dividends and appreciating over the long haul. Obsessing over daily or monthly balances while you are years away from needing the money just doesn't seem very useful, though many people do it and apparently derive satisfaction from seeing the daily/monthly/yearly ups and downs.

 

[retire2020]

I hated selling it but too much money in any firm can be a real bad idea. My friend worked at bear sterns and told me about his many older colleagues that were wiped out. College and retirement funds gone. Enron, bear sterns, Barron's bank, Citicorp. The list is endless.

I was at Bear and that Friday afternoon all Top level executives held an emergency meeting to tell us not to worry and they've found an investor so we are good for a month…as a matter of fact, they instigated all of us to buy more shares that day as stock price had almost fallen more than 50% that week --- And I was one of those fools who bought 1000 shares @ $30/share a minute before closing on that Friday. It was sold to JPMC for $2/share two days later on Sunday…28K loss in a matter of a minute. And then I lost my job…terrible time of my life.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I think Shiller tends to have called the market right the most in the past. He sees stocks and bonds in bubble territory. I don't know about housing everywhere but it is at tulip bulb mania levels here in Northern Cal -

Rate hike needed to pop bubbles: Robert Shiller

We keep stocks at under 20% and some of that is international. Fixed income investments are mainly short term, floating rate, international or laddered with set maturities and a rolling average of rates. We use matching strategies where we can.

 

[Brat]

My investments also have a dividend payer tilt and ytd my portfolio is flat, fully invested in a balanced portfolio. Wish I had sold some in March and held cash for later in the year shopping.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

John Bogle's predictions -

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-vanguard-founder-john-bogle-163124461.html

“When you factor in the costs associated with index funds, inflation, and taxes, you are actually looking at real returns of nominal to zero,” Bogle explained.....Although Bogle believes that the stock market is currently fully valued, he assured that he does not feel that investors should be running for the hills. “I don’t think we’re at the edge of some great cataclysmic crash, but anyone that invests should be prepared for a 25 to 30 percent decline because they do come along from time to time.”

This is interesting as 30 years TIPS are currently at 1.18% real.

 

[marko]

Keep calm and carry on.

 

[NW-Bound]

John Bogle's predictions -

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-vanguard-founder-john-bogle-163124461.html

“When you factor in the costs associated with index funds, inflation, and taxes, you are actually looking at real returns of nominal to zero,” Bogle explained.....Although Bogle believes that the stock market is currently fully valued, he assured that he does not feel that investors should be running for the hills. “I don’t think we’re at the edge of some great cataclysmic crash, but anyone that invests should be prepared for a 25 to 30 percent decline because they do come along from time to time.”

This is interesting as 30 years TIPS are currently at 1.18% real.

Actually, Bogle said that stocks may return around 7% before inflation, but there's a potential for P/E reversion from 20 down to 15, and that may add a negative 3%, causing stock returns flat after inflation and taxes.

The P/E reversion has been talked about by other pundits for some time.

Yep, stock return lousy, bond also lousy. You will just spend down the principal, no matter where you put your money. Party on!

 

[dtbach]

Actually, Bogle said that stocks may return around 7% before inflation, but there's a potential for P/E reversion from 20 down to 15, and that may add a negative 3%, causing stock returns flat after inflation and taxes.

The P/E reversion has been talked about by other pundits for some time.

Yep, stock return lousy, bond also lousy. You will just spend down the principal, no matter where you put your money. Party on!

I agree 100%. Sure the market will drop at some point but the sun will still rise every morning and the birds will chirp. Just keep going on as usual and wait for the inevitable bull market to come back. It's never different this time, the market goes down and inevitably comes back up. relax.
http://www.early-retirement.org//www.pinterest.com/pin/create/extension/

 

[NW-Bound]

Well, I am a gloomy person...

The way I think is, the market may go down, and may not come up for a while. But then, I may not rise up from bed one of these days either. In that way, it all works out.

 

[kaudrey]

Your asset allocation should be such that you are comfortable riding out any downturns. Equity investments should be for the long term, so if the market corrects tomorrow or next year or 5 years from now, you shouldn't care, because you shouldn't have to sell anything. You haven't lost until you sell.

If you are asking the question, then maybe your AA is too aggressive for your risk tolerance.

As I have for the past 20 years, we invest bi-weekly through my 401(k) and monthly in our Roths and taxable accounts.

 

[dtbach]

Your asset allocation should be such that you are comfortable riding out any downturns. Equity investments should be for the long term, so if the market corrects tomorrow or next year or 5 years from now, you shouldn't care, because you shouldn't have to sell anything. You haven't lost until you sell.

If you are asking the question, then maybe your AA is too aggressive for your risk tolerance.

As I have for the past 20 years, we invest bi-weekly through my 401(k) and monthly in our Roths and taxable accounts.

I must admit that it is much easier to be sanguine when you have a paying job and you are LBYM's enough to invest bi-weekly through your 401K. However, once you retire, it turns into an IRA and now you are pulling money OUT of it. Makes downturns less "interesting". But you are absolutely right that this means that your allocations must allow a livable WR that gets one through the inevitable downturns.

 

[ERD50]

John Bogle's predictions -

Yahoo!

“When you factor in the costs associated with index funds, inflation, and taxes, you are actually looking at real returns of nominal to zero,” Bogle explained.....Although Bogle believes that the stock market is currently fully valued, he assured that he does not feel that investors should be running for the hills. “I don’t think we’re at the edge of some great cataclysmic crash, but anyone that invests should be prepared for a 25 to 30 percent decline because they do come along from time to time.”

This is interesting as 30 years TIPS are currently at 1.18% real.

But he was talking about the next 10 years, not the next 30.

Though I think your earlier mention of 'matching strategies' is worth consideration.

-ERD50

 

[daylatedollarshort]

But he was talking about the next 10 years, not the next 30.

Though I think your earlier mention of 'matching strategies' is worth consideration.

-ERD50

Good point. The ten year TIPS on the secondary market are at inflation + .59% today - relatively risk free, or worry free as Zvi Bodie would call it.

I like matching strategies. Bobcat2 has some great posts on Bogleheads on the topic.