2016 YTD investment performance thread

[eytonxav]

I am even for the year, wish it was more positive, but I'll take it.

 

[trixs]

Overall, I am at 1.47% as of 18 March. The funny part is my annual contribution for my Roth IRA was received on 4 Jan and re-balanced the same day. The rest of the accounts I re-balanced at the end of 2015. That Roth IRA account is at 2.02%. Amazing what a few days waiting to re-balance can do.

75/25 portfolio with 36% in overseas assets.

 

[tmm99]

About +1.50% as of March 18. A sigh of relief...

 

[LOL!]

Overall, I am at 1.47% as of 18 March. The funny part is my annual contribution for my Roth IRA was received on 4 Jan and re-balanced the same day. The rest of the accounts I re-balanced at the end of 2015. That Roth IRA account is at 2.02%. Amazing what a few days waiting to re-balance can do.

75/25 portfolio with 36% in overseas assets.

4 Jan was relatively big down day for the US markets: down more than 1.5%, so anybody who started investing on 4 Jan will always be doing better YTD by about 1.5% in their stock portion of their portfolio.

I'd say it was more about market timing than it was about rebalancing.

It's amazing what missing a one-day 1.5% drop can do for a portfolio. And there were many such opportunities so far in 2016.

 

[papadad111]

How are you getting 6%? Based on VTSAX, the high was in July 2015 and the market, with dividends reinvested has declined 3.3% since July 2015. Inflation in 2015 was virtually nonexistent (0.7% for the year) and modest thus far in 2016 so the real decline might be 4% at most with the vast majority due to the market decline since July 2015.

However, it is a bit disingenuous to measure anything from an all-time high... it will almost be lower by definition. If you go for the last 12 months then the market decline is 1.7% nominal and perhaps 2.5% real. If you look at 2015 then the return is positive 0.4% and 0.3% loss on a real basis.

So IMO 6% is silly.

Well... To begin- no more disingenuous than using an arbitrary date such as 12/31/15 !! That is no more silly than using the market high date, which to me matters more, i.e., what really matter - how much I have, How much I had. And how long it will take to get back what I had ... What happened on 12/31 to make that date special...

I keep it simple and benchmark to the SP500...it's the most commonly quoted although most here may be into the broader market including international - that's ok. Could use VTI and VXUS. Vxus was at a high of 54 And now trades at 45... That's a drop of 16%...at a typical 20 percent international mix that is going to impact equity returns negatively by about 1 percent on mix

note when I posted the market as defined by SPY was 202.5 as I recall. The market high was 213.1 That's down 5%. You could use other indices as mentioned. If adding international at a reasonable AA to the mix, the loss would be closer to 6%.... But I rounded down.

Now add inflation CPU/PPI/core rate. You pick. ... It's approx 1 % if reflecting 12 months rolling average. Or knock down to just February 2016 annualized rate) last period in my table) at 0.7% annualized. Let's see what March inflation a does with oil now at 40 bucks a barrel not 26...

Even with simple and readily available data I'm getting 5.7%... Since the highs...

So yea, headed backwards and ...nearly 6 percent...

All this talk of "I'm up for the year" is just a fools game.

Kinda like asking Mrs Lincoln how she enjoyed the rest of the play...

That's what's silly.

 

[mickeyd]

From the "what really matters department"~ When an investor removes funds from his stock/bond account and converts it to cash, is the time that it really maters.

 

[papadad111]

Pb4uski

I see VTSAX hit a highs on May 18 of 53.78, Not in July and is Currently 50.69 as of Friday close.

Plus about .75 dividend paid since high

That's a 4.4% loss even after adding in 3 quarters worth of dividends.

Another 0.6% for 3 quarters worth of inflation brings us to a 5% loss even on VTSAX as of today, I think ... Back up the prices to a few days ago when posted and were nearer to 6 percent loss than to 4 percent loss

Just want to make sure I'm looking at same dataset. Not that it matters at all

 

[pb4uski]

Well, actually we are both wrong......the 52 week high for VTSAX occurred on 6/23/15 ($53.89/share) according to Vanguard's website... not May 18 ($53.73/share) or July 2015. I think I was looking at a chart of weekly balances and picked what looked like the top ($53.53/share) without looking at the specific day that was the 52 week high.

Well... To begin- no more disingenuous than using an arbitrary date such as 12/31/15 !! That is no more silly than using the market high date, which to me matters more, i.e., what really matter - how much I have, How much I had. And how long it will take to get back what I had ... What happened on 12/31 to make that date special... ....

The title of this thread, in case you missed it... is 2016 YTD investment performance thread so what date do you think should be used? If you want to use the last market high then start a new thread. If you want to use real returns then start a new thread.

According to M*, $10,000 invested in VTSAX on 6/23/15 was worth $9,556.64 on 3/17/2016, the closing available before your 6% decline post so we agree on 4.4% decline in nominal terms (but it would be only 4.0% as of today).

Add in inflation and I think we agree on a real loss of around 5% as of a few days ago IF one measures from the all-time high.... right in between the 4% and 6%.

 

[papadad111]

Ok. Peace. No intent to steal the thunder of a YTD thread then. Carry on ....

I'll get excited when we get back above where I once was. ...

 

[pb4uski]

....I'll get excited when we get back above where I once was. ...

Me too. And if that happens then this YTD thread will be "Wh**!!!"

 

[jim584672]

If you want to see YTD performance go to stockcharts.com, snap charts.
Range - Select Year to Date
Type - Select Performance
A ticker symbol with an underscore, (_SPY) will show performance without dividends.
A ticker symbol without an underscore, (SPY) will show performance with dividends.

 

[lemming]

I was surprised that a couple of my funds have done badly. Vanguard extended market and
pssst Wellesley. Other things that I knew were off are showing signs of life.
I'm up for the year on overall according to Vanguard but I haven't withdrawn any $ yet.

 

[jfn111]

Using YTD from Fidelity up 1.58%

 

[fosterscik]

I was surprised that a couple of my funds have done badly. Vanguard extended market and
pssst Wellesley. Other things that I knew were off are showing signs of life.
I'm up for the year on overall according to Vanguard but I haven't withdrawn any $ yet.

Wellesley is actually doing pretty well - up over 3% for the year (3.07% as of 3/23/16 for VWIAX according to Vanguard). Vanguard extended market is down by a similar amount, but that's a high-risk fund rated as 5 on Vanguard's risk potential scale (which runs from 1 to 5). Wellesley is a 3 on that same scale.

 

[tmm99]

Using YTD from Fidelity up 1.58%

I believe Fidelity updates YTD data only once a month (with the month end data), so most likely your YTD is the February end data. The market has come up a lot since then..

 

[LitGal]

I am even for the year, wish it was more positive, but I'll take it.

+1

 

[lemming]

VWINX Benchmark
YTD 0.24% 0.47%
1 year 0.15% -0.56%
I don't know where you are getting 3% for Wellesley. Are dividends not included in this number. It was negative when I checked before.

 

[redduck]

Wellesley is actually doing pretty well - up over 3% for the year (3.07% as of 3/23/16 for VWIAX according to Vanguard)...

VWINX Benchmark
YTD 0.24% 0.47%
1 year 0.15% -0.56%
I don't know where you are getting 3% for Wellesley. Are dividends not included in this number. It was negative when I checked before.

fosterscik apparently got his information from Vanguard. Where did you get your information? And, how long ago?

note: emphasis by redduck

 

[Happyras]

VWINX Benchmark
YTD 0.24% 0.47%
1 year 0.15% -0.56%
I don't know where you are getting 3% for Wellesley. Are dividends not included in this number. It was negative when I checked before.

According to Stockcharts.com VWIAX is up 3% with div and 2.32% without. VWELX is up 1.06% with div and 0.43% without.

My mix of these two is up a little more with some small portion of index funds and one HY bond.

 

[youbet]

A "Moderate" portfolio is down -0.34% YTD as of the close 3/24/16 (with divs reinvested).


Moderate =


35% US Agg Bond
35% S&P 500
15% MSCI EAFE Developed Markets
10% Russell 2000
5% 3 month T Bill


To all you folks beating this, apparently with significantly different allocations or doing some successful active management, congratulations!

 

[lemming]

fosterscik apparently got his information from Vanguard. Where did you get your information? And, how long ago?

note: emphasis by redduck

I got my information from Vanguard today.
Looking again it shows a Yield of 3.003 but ytd performance is per my post.

 

[LOL!]

A "Moderate" portfolio is down -0.34% YTD as of the close 3/24/16 (with divs reinvested).

Morningstar shows that several 60/40 funds (moderate allocation) are YTD (through 3/24) between +0.52% to +0.84%. I noted the fund ticker symbols in a recent post in this thread.

So that leaves me wondering how -0.34% was determined. Was that just starting with values on 12/31/2015 and no rebalancing? 2016 has been a great year so for rebalancing.

 

[rodi]

A "Moderate" portfolio is down -0.34% YTD as of the close 3/24/16 (with divs reinvested).


Moderate =


35% US Agg Bond
35% S&P 500
15% MSCI EAFE Developed Markets
10% Russell 2000
5% 3 month T Bill


To all you folks beating this, apparently with significantly different allocations or doing some successful active management, congratulations!

That makes me feel better since I'm at -0.39

I rebalanced once in late January because my bands were out by more than 5%... but that's the only rebalancing I've done.

I've got a 60/40 - but a chunk of the 40 (15%) is CDs because DH is afraid of the market. I've been slowly moving him (with his permission) into Wellington.

 

[youbet]

So that leaves me wondering how -0.34% was determined. Was that just starting with values on 12/31/2015 and no rebalancing? 2016 has been a great year so for rebalancing.

The return was calculated with monthly rebalancing and with divs/int re-invested. You can easily account for the difference in YTD performance by (1) noting the difference in composition between the funds you mentioned and the bucket of five indexes and (2) noting whether the actively managed funds did any trading (beyond rebalancing) during the period.

 

[youbet]

I've got a 60/40 - but...........

Yeah, there's 60/40 portfolios and then there are 60/40 portfolios! Even relatively small differences (your 15% in CD's for example) in portfolio composition can have surprisingly large impacts on performance in any short time period.

The figure I gave came from Schwab and uses their definition of a "moderate" benchmark which they build using five common indexes. 0% expense ratio. Divs/Int reinvested. Rebalanced monthly. Actively managed "moderate" (about 60/40) MF's and ETF's can vary (higher or lower) in performance significantly from a moderate grouping of common indexes.