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04-04-2017, 03:51 PM
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#201
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
I think we agree on the second part... that is the reason that I compare my actual portfolio returns to a benchmark... to assess I am doing the thing right as you like to put it.
On the first part, I would expect that my 60/40 portfolio will be quite different from the Russell 3000 or whatever 100% equity benchmark that you want to use so I don't see where that comparison is useful at all... the 100% equity portfolio will have a lot more risk and volatility than my 60/40 portfolio too.
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Well then we're pretty well in agreement across the board. I don't compare the static benchmarks to my whole portfolio, just to the equity portion. As I said, that comparison is to look at whether the AA in the equity portion looks like it is producing reasonable results. Agreed that for small differences it will take years to be sure of a variance not due to luck, but if my portfolio goes careening off to the South Pole vs the Russell or the ACWI then I will at least know it.
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04-04-2017, 04:09 PM
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#202
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
RNWGX is 80%
RLBGX is 20%
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I'm curious about the 9.6% you reported in post #184. Is that with this AA? Just eyeballing the graphs at Schwab, it looks like RNGWX is up about 8% and RLBGX is up about 4%. Not trying to be argumentative but that gets me to about 7.2%, not 9.6%. Am I not understanding something?
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04-04-2017, 04:19 PM
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#203
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,014
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational
Unless you adjusted for year-to-date spending, you might be able to report a little higher number than 3.77%. as your "all-in" return.
We've been calling it "money chimp" style spending adjustment if you do it this way:
=(CurrentAllInBalance+YtdSpend/2)/(StartYearBalance-YtdSpend/2)-1
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It turns out to be quite a bit higher YTD return number as I do a lot of gifting early in the year when I start the new budget year.
OK - if I take into account my spending plus taxes paid year to date, to my total investable assets growth:
Using the Quicken Method for calculating ROI, which is (CurrentAllInBalance+YTDSpend)/(StartYearBalance+YTDAdditions)-1, I get
YTD = +4.33%
If I subtract my spending from the StartYearBalance (as if all the funds had been removed at midnight 12/31/16), I get
YTD = +4.36%
If I use your "money chimp" style formula, I get
YTD = +4.35%
So - yeah, that's an average between the two.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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04-04-2017, 04:38 PM
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#204
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
I'm curious about the 9.6% you reported in post #184. Is that with this AA? Just eyeballing the graphs at Schwab, it looks like RNGWX is up about 8% and RLBGX is up about 4%. Not trying to be argumentative but that gets me to about 7.2%, not 9.6%. Am I not understanding something?
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Judging from the screen name, I think target2019 is not yet retired. Perhaps he is still contributing to his 401k, and that creates an additional increase.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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04-04-2017, 04:50 PM
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#205
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
It turns out to be quite a bit higher YTD return number as I do a lot of gifting early in the year when I start the new budget year.
...
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There's value in both the with and without spend adjust...I like to adjust because it makes the number bigger, hehe!
The beginning, end, or average (money chimp), doesn't make much difference, does it? Oh well, I'll take whatever bit of increase in accuracy I can get if it only takes a one-time change of a formula in my spreadsheet. Actually, my number is kind of rough because it's just my 12 month spend projection linearly applied to the number of days so far in the year. And, as you do, I have lumpy expenditures. It would be a lot more accurate by using actual spending, but that sounds like too much effort for something I'm trying to push out of the spotlight rather than into it.
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04-04-2017, 05:00 PM
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#206
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,014
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational
There's value in both the with and without spend adjust...I like to adjust because it makes the number bigger, hehe!
The beginning, end, or average (money chimp), doesn't make much difference, does it? Oh well, I'll take whatever bit of increase in accuracy I can get if it only takes a one-time change of a formula in my spreadsheet. Actually, my number is kind of rough because it's just my 12 month spend projection linearly applied to the number of days so far in the year. And, as you do, I have lumpy expenditures. It would be a lot more accurate by using actual spending, but that sounds like too much effort for something I'm trying to push out of the spotlight rather than into it.
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Well, I adjust my retirement fund YTD performance because I remove the annual income at the very start of each year, so it makes sense to apply the same to total investable assets. I had forgotten about that.
In general, in tracking my net worth, I've looked at that in terms of growth in spite of my spending. If I went back and added all the funds I'd spent over the years, the growth would be huge! I'd also faint because I'd spent so much money!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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04-04-2017, 05:09 PM
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#207
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 7,281
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+2.42% Net Worth growth between 12/31/16 and now. That is everything - all real estate, homes, cash, stocks, loans and debts ... We haven't made the tax payments yet, but overpaid on some of the taxes and most of the rents haven't come in for the month, so that should balance out.
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04-04-2017, 05:13 PM
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#208
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
...In general, in tracking my net worth, I've looked at that in terms of growth in spite of my spending. If I went back and added all the funds I'd spent over the years, the growth would be huge! I'd also faint because I'd spent so much money!
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But of course.
My earned income only stopped 5 years ago, and I was working part-time and could cover my expenses but did not have extra to add to the stash. Still, when I look at what Quicken tallies up for expenses in the last 5 years, OMG! Imagine still having all that money, plus whatever cap gains and dividends out of that. If we were both working, and saving the max with children out of college, how much more money could we have?
Still, I want to account for the withdrawal to see the true investment return. Managing the expenses is another aspect of retirement planning, and I want it separate from the investment process.
PS. Growth in spite of spending is very desirable, and more so if it is after adjustment for inflation. The problem is we are not guaranteed that, and it is unlikely in the next decade or two, according to Bogle, Shiller, and other pundits. At least, it is the case for me, and not somebody who is drawing a minuscule 1.5 or 2%.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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04-04-2017, 09:07 PM
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#209
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
I'm curious about the 9.6% you reported in post #184. Is that with this AA? Just eyeballing the graphs at Schwab, it looks like RNGWX is up about 8% and RLBGX is up about 4%. Not trying to be argumentative but that gets me to about 7.2%, not 9.6%. Am I not understanding something?
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What I reported here is what the 401k provider reported to me when I looked on April 1.
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04-04-2017, 09:18 PM
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#210
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Judging from the screen name, I think target2019 is not yet retired. Perhaps he is still contributing to his 401k, and that creates an additional increase.
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M* shows 10.68% total return YTD for RNWGX, a few days after.
So EM is still reaching for the sky.
I have bi-monthly contributions. You are an astute observer!
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04-05-2017, 01:30 AM
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#211
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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RNWGX is up 11.14% now. For comparison, Vanguard VWO which I have is up 11.76% YTD.
Emerging markets have been trailing the S&P the last couple of years. They are having their revenge now. Here hoping it will last.
My star performer is a small-cap stock that is up more than 80% YTD. Of course I only have a little bit in it. Even after the growth, it is still less than 1% of portfolio. Still nice to have that gain, as it contributed almost 0.5% to the total portfolio gain of 5.5%. That happens inside MFs too, but one does not see unless he looks deeper into a MF's holdings.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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04-05-2017, 03:19 AM
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#212
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,687
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RNWGX has an EM focus, but not really an EM index.
"The fund invests primarily in common stocks of companies with significant exposure to countries with developing economies and/or markets.*"
You will find exposure to developed markets as well as US companies in the portfolio. It will not go as extreme as EM ETF index. In 3, 5 yr periods it did better. Started in 2009.
EM index, we also hold. Altogether there is under 7.5% EM in our total port. Some in total int'l fund, EM fund, RNWGX, and so on.
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04-05-2017, 07:46 AM
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#213
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
...You will find exposure to developed markets as well as US companies in the portfolio. It will not go as extreme as EM ETF index. In 3, 5 yr periods it did better...
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RNWGX is better than VWO in 5 years, but not in 1 or 3 years. I just checked.
It definitely has lower volatility than VWO. Rated 5-star by Morningstar. Something worthwhile for people to look into, despite its 0.65% ER.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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04-05-2017, 05:44 PM
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#214
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,687
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3 years is very close.
Instead I will take RNWGX for 5 and 10 years.
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04-28-2017, 08:12 PM
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#215
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,745
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At +5.20% [edited], up 1.23% [edited] since the last month. Winners and losers stayed pretty much the same. From winners to losers: emerging market funds, US index funds, short term trades, and bond funds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by robnplunder
I am up 3.97%, trailing the market. My winners are DODFX, FSCHX, and FCNKX. The losers are my bond portfolio & short term trades.
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04-28-2017, 08:48 PM
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#216
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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It's been a month already! Time to report month-end result, I guess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
So, I closed the first trimester of 2017 with a gain of 5.49%, calculated over every account, including the last penny in the checking account.
Reasonably happy with it, considering that I am only 66% in equities, with much of the rest in cash. The S&P is up 6.37% for the period, and I got 86% of that gain.
It may just evaporate next week, but so far so good.
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I am now up to 6.35% YTD. Stock AA has crept up to 69% due to a bit of buying, with most of the rest in cash.
What added to the gain in April is a mixed bag of stocks, such as Caterpillar (up 10% in a month), Walmart (7%), and Home Depot (6%), biotechs, etc... Stocks that went down in April include mining, energy, chemical companies, AT&T, even Berkshire Hathaway, etc...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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04-28-2017, 09:37 PM
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#217
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 441
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+6.72% YTD, +1.52% in April 2017.
56% US Stocks/20% International Stocks/16% US Bonds/ 4% Foreign Bonds/ 4% REITS
Large Cap Stocks (32%) helped the performance this month.
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04-28-2017, 09:46 PM
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#218
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,266
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5.58% YTD
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
4.63% YTD based on XIRR of beginning balance, withdrawals, cash dividends and ending balance using a 12/31/2017 date. AA of 60/35/5.
I have been rebalancing more often than normal into the rally to keep cash up giving upcoming wedding costs later this year.
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__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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04-28-2017, 11:29 PM
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#219
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Cottage Grove
Posts: 212
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I'm at 8.05% YTD as of today in my 401K. My HSA and Roth are probably a little less but together they account for less than 5% of my retirement savings. AA is 100% equities.
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04-28-2017, 11:36 PM
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#220
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Cottage Grove
Posts: 212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Judging from the screen name, I think target2019 is not yet retired. Perhaps he is still contributing to his 401k, and that creates an additional increase.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
What I reported here is what the 401k provider reported to me when I looked on April 1.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
M* shows 10.68% total return YTD for RNWGX, a few days after.
So EM is still reaching for the sky.
I have bi-monthly contributions. You are an astute observer!
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My 401K does NOT count my contributions towards my rate of return. It will count the gain on the contributions but not the contributions themselves. It does count the contributions towards total increase/decrease in my portfolio but I can do that in my head because that page states what the starting balance was at the end of the year. Do you know how yours calculates your return?
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