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12-24-2017, 12:30 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,895
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2018 Strategy
I'm sure we all looked like geniuses in 2017 with our 10,15,20,25% ROIs but do you have any plans for 2018 as to changing things ?
I had to rebalance a number of times in 2017 to maintain a 60/40 (equites/fixed) split and finally just went to a 50/50 in December and I'm going to ride that pony till the cows come home in 2018. Yes, I know mixing metaphors is like killing two birds with a dog that don't hunt.
So what's your plan for 18, if you have any ?
Oh and by the way Merry Christmas to all.
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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12-24-2017, 12:35 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
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I was really bored with my 2017 investments. I intend to be bored again in 2018. I was 50/50 in 2017 and will be 50/50 in 2018. The only other plan I had was to dump it all into Bitcoin, but I lost my nerve.
VW
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12-24-2017, 12:55 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
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Didn’t rebalance in 2017. Waited (fingers crossed) to receive distributions and sure enough they were quite large this year and mostly have rebalanced the portfolio by taking them in cash.
Hope to keep taxable income lower in 2018, but if the large distributions repeat it won’t be that much lower.
Added new funds to the portfolio (from an old legacy investment I finally sold) and plan to stay at 50/50 until CAPE10 drops below 25. Might be years, lol!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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12-24-2017, 02:29 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
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Gonna stay ~60/40ish with 2020 (and beyond) stash. After retiring this year, I built a two year CD ladder with quarterly intervals. So, the only (planned) change for 2018 is cashing in those CDs.
Merry Christmas to all as well.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
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12-24-2017, 02:43 PM
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#5
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 986
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Moved from 85/15 to 70/30 in 2017. I plan to move to higher bond allocation if the market keeps going up, appropriately 1% equity to bond if S&P500 rises 1%. So if it rises 10% again in 2018, my allocation will likely be 60/40.
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12-24-2017, 02:45 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,674
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Same as 2017, 45/45/10. Why mess with perfection?
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx
In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
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12-24-2017, 02:56 PM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 629
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I am pondering this now. I just received a nice inheritance, but I don't want any income from it for a year and a half until I am off Obamacare. Trying to decide how to handle it. The rest of my investments are staying the same 60/35/5
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12-24-2017, 04:03 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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Still planning on dancing with the one that brought me this far.
Mostly US Equity Indexes, dividends reinvested. Plenty of real estate. I will be bumping a few rents.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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12-24-2017, 08:21 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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In late November went to 50/50 from 60/40. No plans to change that. If the yield curve flattens to maybe 80 basis points, I might consider going to 40/60. Currently it’s 115bp.
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12-24-2017, 08:56 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Instead of selling outright to reduce my stock AA down from 70%, I have been selling covered-call options. However, being a stock lover that I am, I am greedy and reluctant to see them go, so have been selling at strike prices fairly high out-of-the-money.
I will take a less optimistic stance, and write options closer to the money to be sure my stock AA will get reduced. And then, as my cash level is raised, I will do cash-covered puts at below market to force myself to buy low if the market drops.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-24-2017, 10:09 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,591
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Staying the course at 70/30. Continuing shift into international and emerging markets on equity side. Sticking with st and intermediate bond funds on debt side, plus cash.
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12-25-2017, 01:18 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,393
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Will simply keep selling stock to fund higher spending if the market does not crash. Maybe 1.5% of portfolio. This will take WR to about 5%.
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12-25-2017, 04:33 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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We rebalanced three times in 2017. The last time, in December, we moved from 70/30 to 65/35. No plans to change the allocation in the future. The 35% is in cash and VBIRX. In 2018 will look to increase the yield with CD ladders or other short bond options. But, I am not looking for any long bond exposure at this point.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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12-25-2017, 04:37 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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I rebalanced and (permanently) reduced my equity AA from 62 to 60. If the market keeps rising, I will drop another point or two next year.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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12-25-2017, 04:50 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,193
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reduced equities after this big run up from 50 to 40% . i am not comfortable at these levels . more so the amount of leverage out there because of low volatility , not so much because of p/e's.
all these trading programs that use leverage have increased leverage drastically . but any increase in volatility and the loss potential kick up or dip will have these machines deleveraging so as to get loss potential back in line .
once something triggers selling it will cause more selling and it won't be pretty . so i am out of my comfort range as of last week .
reduced holdings in a total bond fund and added the money to both very very short term bond funds and to my go anywhere bond fund .that move made the portfolio much less interest rate sensitive . with more increases coming i felt reducing sensitivity while still maintaining a good allocation to all kinds of bonds was a good idea .
it holds some high yield ,international , emerging market as well as high quality corporate's .
credit risk is not much of an issue at all now . i still hold some total bond fund but it has been cut in half going forward .
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12-25-2017, 06:43 AM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Atlanta suburbs
Posts: 633
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When I retired my portfolio allocation was at 65/35. My plan at the time was to drop the equity part of the allocation by 1% a year and also re-balance (both at the beginning of the year). I intend stick to that plan. 62/38 in 2018.
The drop in early 2016 and the rise in 2017 has not caused huge drifts for my allocation, and they have not made me do anything in the middle of the year. There was a post some time ago by Audrey which sticks in my mind, something about changing allocation in the middle of 2008 and a reference to catching a falling knife.
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12-25-2017, 06:57 AM
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#17
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
So what's your plan for 18, if you have any?
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My plan is to leave my 2017 plan unchanged for now. Recent years have been good to us financially. We haven't had to change much.
I'm retired while my wife continues to work. She currently enjoys her job and wants to continue to work for a few more years. We are both good with that.
We'll continue to max out her 401k. That allows us to get ACA subsidies and have very affordable health care from the marketplace (since her employer doesn't offer health insurance).
We'll continue with our current 60-40 asset allocation for the year and continue to draw from our cash savings as needed.
After 2018, we may need to change things up. Depending on what the Administration and Congress do to the ACA, we may need to spend more on healthcare. And in a few years, we'll be Medicare-eligible - that will change things up a bit.
And once my wife decides she is done with the working life, we will re-calibrate our budgeted expenses, review our asset allocation, and adjust things as needed.
The biggest unknown at this point is my health. I'm currently undergoing infusion treatments for cancer. But I only have 4 more weeks to go with that. And the expectation is that I'll be fine once treatments end. If an unexpected prognosis appears, we may need to rethink our plan to wait until 70 to start Social Security benefits and our plan to retire to our current vacation home in 3-4 years.
All told, we've been planning for the long haul for a long time. Fortunately, we are well-positioned for pretty much whatever comes our way. The future's so bright we have to wear shades!
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12-25-2017, 07:16 AM
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#18
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 946
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With almost exactly one year to go before my FIRE date, and the bull market so old now, I am going to 0/93/7 at the first of the year (after the Santa Clause rally). I am just plain chicken now. I'll get back to "normal" at the end of next year.
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12-25-2017, 07:45 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
reduced equities after this big run up from 50 to 40% . i am not comfortable at these levels . more so the amount of leverage out there because of low volatility , not so much because of p/e's.
all these trading programs that use leverage have increased leverage drastically . but any increase in volatility and the loss potential kick up or dip will have these machines deleveraging so as to get loss potential back in line ....
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Any source data on the amount of leverage?
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12-25-2017, 08:39 AM
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#20
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camfused
With almost exactly one year to go before my FIRE date, and the bull market so old now, I am going to 0/93/7 at the first of the year (after the Santa Clause rally). I am just plain chicken now. I'll get back to "normal" at the end of next year.
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Going to zero%
What are you expecting to happen in 2018? What leads you to that conclusion?
And what leads you to believe that whatever it is, it will be over at the end of the year?
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