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01-01-2019, 08:51 PM
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#901
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion
Unfortunately most of our money was invested in "safe" index funds in our 401K and is down about 7.5%.
The risky portion was invested in Endocyte and ended up going up over 1000%. Unfortunately I did not risk more than I could afford to lose so only ended up making $400,000 or so total (some of which I realized in 2017)
For 2018 it is looking like we are +10% or so, with the Endocyte pulling up the losses in the 401K. This is after accounting for taxes on the long term capital gains and having to pay back all of my ACA subsidy for 2018.
For 2019 I am going to try some different strategy. I am going to take the risk with a small portion of the 401K and put the taxable money in index funds. I don't like paying back ACA subsidy or cutting $60,000 checks to the IRS in retirement.
Still, being up 10% this year is good, no?
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Nice job!
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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01-01-2019, 09:12 PM
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#902
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion
Unfortunately most of our money was invested in "safe" index funds in our 401K and is down about 7.5%.
The risky portion was invested in Endocyte and ended up going up over 1000%. Unfortunately I did not risk more than I could afford to lose so only ended up making $400,000 or so total (some of which I realized in 2017)
For 2018 it is looking like we are +10% or so, with the Endocyte pulling up the losses in the 401K. This is after accounting for taxes on the long term capital gains and having to pay back all of my ACA subsidy for 2018.
For 2019 I am going to try some different strategy. I am going to take the risk with a small portion of the 401K and put the taxable money in index funds. I don't like paying back ACA subsidy or cutting $60,000 checks to the IRS in retirement.
Still, being up 10% this year is good, no?
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You got 10% out of this market by taking some big risks. I'm glad it worked out for you. Good thinking only investing what you can afford to lose in that one stock......
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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01-01-2019, 09:49 PM
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#903
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion
.. I don't like paying back ACA subsidy or cutting $60,000 checks to the IRS in retirement...
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Would you prefer to keep the ACA subsidy, write no check to the IRS, and have $400K loss instead of gain?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-01-2019, 09:52 PM
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#904
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Long Island
Posts: 141
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My first down year since retirement in August of 2015. Down 4.91% and I have come to realize that I do not have the risk tolerance that I used to. I guess that paycheck thing really does make a difference. I am going to take some time to re-assess my AA. Currently 76-21-3. I’m thinking something like 65-25-10 would make me sleep a bit more soundly.
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01-01-2019, 10:23 PM
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#905
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,479
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Reading through these posts makes me think that 2018 was a great learning year for Early Retirees (me included!) and for prospective ERs. While we had a 20% drop from the stock market peak, folks with between 70/30 and 30/70 AAs saw something like 5-15% losses from that peak.
But YTD the range seems to be more like -1% to -6% (again, for folks that don't have extreme AAs).
I think this was a good test of everyone's risk tolerance without seriously endangering anyone's ER plans, so far.
Today I ran all the numbers including 4% rule, 4%/3.5% of current portfolio, FIRECalc, VPW, McClung, Clyatt 95% rule, and RMD. After going through this bear/correction in my first full year of ER, albeit after a bang-up 2017, I'm still comfortable with where I am.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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01-02-2019, 12:50 AM
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#906
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 621
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Hi,
I am down -3.8% in the year 2018, I started out as 50%/45%/5%, the ratios have changed some making the cash ratio up from 5 to 6.5%.
I am not making any moves till the market dust settles some(hopefully soon), but do plan to come back to around the Asset Allocation I stared with in 2018.
We will see what happens,
My best to every one for a better 2019.
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01-02-2019, 05:31 AM
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#907
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Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,056
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I've now been investing 23 years and this was the 5th negative IRR I have had. It is actually the "best" negative year for me. The worst year was 2008 with an IRR of -16.25%. The other double digit losing year was 2002 at -10.99%.
This is the first losing year since we retired in 2010 so we have been very fortunate to have had such a good run since retiring. We are both of an age now that we could choose to take SS early plus we will begin taking UK SS in just over 2 years so we also have a good safety net to mitigate any fears of long term stock market declines.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
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01-02-2019, 05:42 AM
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#908
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Atlanta suburbs
Posts: 633
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Down about 2.75%. My 60/40 Balanced Index benchmark is down 2.86%.
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01-02-2019, 06:36 AM
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#909
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEC-1982
Down about 2.75%. My 60/40 Balanced Index benchmark is down 2.86%.
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Any foreign equities? -2.86 at 60/40 sounds pretty good.
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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01-02-2019, 06:42 AM
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#910
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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-2.0% for 2018 with a 40/45/15 AA. Subtract our withdrawals for the year and the portfolio declined a total of 5.9%.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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01-02-2019, 08:31 AM
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#911
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: yonder
Posts: 2,851
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Here is the 2018 result for my Dividend Portfolio: $0.00 (0.00%).
This information was taken from "End of Year Market Closures" right off of the brokerage's website.
__________________
When the people shall have nothing more to eat, they will eat the rich--philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau
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01-02-2019, 09:11 AM
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#912
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,031
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down -7.29% for 2018 @99% equities
What can I do besides continue to DCA during accumulation. I am taking on risk with 10% of the portfolio in AAPL/6% AMZN but some of that is grouped into by LargeCap ETF and Index which I have little control over if I want to stay diversified owning the simplicity of an index. I'm fine with my boat lowering with the tide. As long as it rises accordingly.
1/4/2018 1.40%
2/1/2018 5%
3/1/2018 1.95%
4/1/2018 0.36%
5/1/2018 0.28%
6/1/2018 5.50%
7/1/2018 7%
8/1/2018 9.35%
9/1/2018 16.08%
10/1/2018 15.43%
11/1/2018 5.4%
12/31/2018 -7.29% YTD
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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01-02-2019, 09:38 AM
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#913
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 136
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For the year 2018
Dow -5.63% ; S&P -6.24% ; NAS -3.88%,
Archman: -0.11 %
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01-02-2019, 10:52 AM
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#914
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 32
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-7.23% for 2018
69/31
< 6 years before Retirement @ 55.
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01-02-2019, 10:59 AM
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#915
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 4,689
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I must be misunderstanding our VG RR for 2018 for total portfolio 55/40/5. Most have such losses.
2018 RR +.8%
3 yr RR + 6%
5 yr RR + 5.6%
__________________
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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01-02-2019, 11:29 AM
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#916
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 633
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FIDO shows 401k was up 3.42% for the last year. Sold off international position first quarter and S&P index second quarter going from 100% stock to 50/50 with a big utility and short term MM being dominant accounts. Today my utility is down 2.4%.
Pension credits in a cash balance account were a steady 4% increase last year.
Here is to hoping 2019 is my last full year at work.
__________________
DW and I are 62/62. 100% equities 31 years. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension cashed out Dec 2022 before segmentation rates reduced balance - rolled to MM fund, max SS for DH and DW at FRA. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG for 3 years. Next few years will be IRA cash withdrawals or until Stock Market recovers. AA 33% stocks, 67% MM and T-Bills. Rising equity glidepath.
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01-02-2019, 11:33 AM
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#917
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT
YTD up 11.04%
Currently 20% equities (fully hedged)
AA varies between 20%-80% equities/10% ST treas/10%-70% cash.
Down 6% from the September high, but almost double LT planning returns.
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Actually, I missed Divy's posted this morning. I am up +11.33% for the year!
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01-02-2019, 12:01 PM
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#918
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 98
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Down 4.3% for the year
57% Stocks (with 6% in International), 20.7% in Bonds and 22.3% in CD's and cash
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01-02-2019, 12:14 PM
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#919
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Vienna
Posts: 226
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Down 5% with a globally balanced 60/40 portfolio. International is about 1/3 of both the equity and fixed income parts.
Larry
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01-02-2019, 12:41 PM
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#920
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Just south of Rochester
Posts: 119
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Down 3.11% 45/40/15
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