2018 YTD investment performance thread

[aja8888]

Unfortunately most of our money was invested in "safe" index funds in our 401K and is down about 7.5%.

The risky portion was invested in Endocyte and ended up going up over 1000%. Unfortunately I did not risk more than I could afford to lose so only ended up making $400,000 or so total (some of which I realized in 2017)

For 2018 it is looking like we are +10% or so, with the Endocyte pulling up the losses in the 401K. This is after accounting for taxes on the long term capital gains and having to pay back all of my ACA subsidy for 2018.

For 2019 I am going to try some different strategy. I am going to take the risk with a small portion of the 401K and put the taxable money in index funds. I don't like paying back ACA subsidy or cutting $60,000 checks to the IRS in retirement.

Still, being up 10% this year is good, no?

Nice job!

 

[VanWinkle]

Unfortunately most of our money was invested in "safe" index funds in our 401K and is down about 7.5%.

The risky portion was invested in Endocyte and ended up going up over 1000%. Unfortunately I did not risk more than I could afford to lose so only ended up making $400,000 or so total (some of which I realized in 2017)

For 2018 it is looking like we are +10% or so, with the Endocyte pulling up the losses in the 401K. This is after accounting for taxes on the long term capital gains and having to pay back all of my ACA subsidy for 2018.

For 2019 I am going to try some different strategy. I am going to take the risk with a small portion of the 401K and put the taxable money in index funds. I don't like paying back ACA subsidy or cutting $60,000 checks to the IRS in retirement.

Still, being up 10% this year is good, no?

You got 10% out of this market by taking some big risks. I'm glad it worked out for you. Good thinking only investing what you can afford to lose in that one stock......

 

[NW-Bound]

.. I don't like paying back ACA subsidy or cutting $60,000 checks to the IRS in retirement...

Would you prefer to keep the ACA subsidy, write no check to the IRS, and have $400K loss instead of gain?

 

[Islandtraveler]

My first down year since retirement in August of 2015. Down 4.91% and I have come to realize that I do not have the risk tolerance that I used to. I guess that paycheck thing really does make a difference. I am going to take some time to re-assess my AA. Currently 76-21-3. I’m thinking something like 65-25-10 would make me sleep a bit more soundly.

 

[USGrant1962]

Reading through these posts makes me think that 2018 was a great learning year for Early Retirees (me included!) and for prospective ERs. While we had a 20% drop from the stock market peak, folks with between 70/30 and 30/70 AAs saw something like 5-15% losses from that peak.

But YTD the range seems to be more like -1% to -6% (again, for folks that don't have extreme AAs).

I think this was a good test of everyone's risk tolerance without seriously endangering anyone's ER plans, so far.

Today I ran all the numbers including 4% rule, 4%/3.5% of current portfolio, FIRECalc, VPW, McClung, Clyatt 95% rule, and RMD. After going through this bear/correction in my first full year of ER, albeit after a bang-up 2017, I'm still comfortable with where I am.

 

[rkser]

Hi,

I am down -3.8% in the year 2018, I started out as 50%/45%/5%, the ratios have changed some making the cash ratio up from 5 to 6.5%.

I am not making any moves till the market dust settles some(hopefully soon), but do plan to come back to around the Asset Allocation I stared with in 2018.

We will see what happens,

My best to every one for a better 2019.

 

[Alan]

I've now been investing 23 years and this was the 5th negative IRR I have had. It is actually the "best" negative year for me. The worst year was 2008 with an IRR of -16.25%. The other double digit losing year was 2002 at -10.99%.

This is the first losing year since we retired in 2010 so we have been very fortunate to have had such a good run since retiring. We are both of an age now that we could choose to take SS early plus we will begin taking UK SS in just over 2 years so we also have a good safety net to mitigate any fears of long term stock market declines.

 

[DEC-1982]

Down about 2.75%. My 60/40 Balanced Index benchmark is down 2.86%.

 

[VanWinkle]

Down about 2.75%. My 60/40 Balanced Index benchmark is down 2.86%.

Any foreign equities? -2.86 at 60/40 sounds pretty good.

 

[REWahoo]

-2.0% for 2018 with a 40/45/15 AA. Subtract our withdrawals for the year and the portfolio declined a total of 5.9%.

 

[redduck]

Here is the 2018 result for my Dividend Portfolio: $0.00 (0.00%).
This information was taken from "End of Year Market Closures" right off of the brokerage's website.

 

[kgtest]

down -7.29% for 2018 @99% equities

What can I do besides continue to DCA during accumulation. I am taking on risk with 10% of the portfolio in AAPL/6% AMZN but some of that is grouped into by LargeCap ETF and Index which I have little control over if I want to stay diversified owning the simplicity of an index. I'm fine with my boat lowering with the tide. As long as it rises accordingly.

1/4/2018 1.40%
2/1/2018 5%
3/1/2018 1.95%
4/1/2018 0.36%
5/1/2018 0.28%
6/1/2018 5.50%
7/1/2018 7%
8/1/2018 9.35%
9/1/2018 16.08%
10/1/2018 15.43%
11/1/2018 5.4%
12/31/2018 -7.29% YTD

 

[Archman]

For the year 2018

Dow -5.63% ; S&P -6.24% ; NAS -3.88%,

Archman: -0.11 %

 

[2k6_TX_Dad]

-7.23% for 2018
69/31
< 6 years before Retirement @ 55.

 

[Rianne]

I must be misunderstanding our VG RR for 2018 for total portfolio 55/40/5. Most have such losses.


2018 RR +.8%
3 yr RR + 6%
5 yr RR + 5.6%

 

[atmsmshr]

FIDO shows 401k was up 3.42% for the last year. Sold off international position first quarter and S&P index second quarter going from 100% stock to 50/50 with a big utility and short term MM being dominant accounts. Today my utility is down 2.4%.

Pension credits in a cash balance account were a steady 4% increase last year.

Here is to hoping 2019 is my last full year at work.

 

[NYEXPAT]

YTD up 11.04%
Currently 20% equities (fully hedged)
AA varies between 20%-80% equities/10% ST treas/10%-70% cash.
Down 6% from the September high, but almost double LT planning returns.

Actually, I missed Divy's posted this morning. I am up +11.33% for the year!

 

[canuck5]

Down 4.3% for the year

57% Stocks (with 6% in International), 20.7% in Bonds and 22.3% in CD's and cash

 

[madsquopper]

Down 5% with a globally balanced 60/40 portfolio. International is about 1/3 of both the equity and fixed income parts.

Larry

 

[vince]

Down 3.11% 45/40/15

 

[dadu007]

Down 7.9% for 2018.
90% equities.

 

[nash031]

According to Personal Capital's "YouIndex" I was down 10.2%, 85% equity - with 30% of that international. Mostly VTSAX and VTIAX. That said, that YouIndex probably isn't accurate since I'm not sure it does the math for sales and such and basically just assumes you either only bought in or held everything. I need to look more into that. Still, as a ballpark number, it's probably about right given my AA.

I made two sales in August to support funding our move to the new home, selling some AAPL and some S&P500 index fund that's just hanging out in another account. Both were sold at near market top, making me feel pretty smart... or lucky... whatever.

 

[USGrant1962]

So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.

 

[clifp]

My net worth was down -.81% this year. That includes my living expenses, and very large donation to my Donor Advised Fund since benefit from a windfall in one of my investments.

It will take a few days before Schwab updates all the year end stuff, before I do a deep dive into my stock performance. But I suspect, my good time/luck with selling a good chunk of stock in Nov. early Dec. and buying puts helped. But even more important was purchasing of real estate and my Angel investing. Real estate values continued to rise especially in Vegas, but moderately in Hawaii, and Missouri, which canceled out the market declines.

I have very mixed emotions about last years. It is never good to lose money, but after 2 years of trailing my benchmark (a moderately aggressive portfolio) it was nice to crush it this year.

 

[street]

So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.

Thanks for that data and your time doing it. Very interesting data. I didn't give my AA but at 75% equity I can see where I would be at.