2019 YTD Investment Performance Thread

[flintnational]

6.4% YTD per the chimp. 70/30 allocation - a quick look showed my international allocation continued to under perform the US and was a drag on returns. But, but, but, international looks cheap going forward. Well, maybe.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I keep seeing posts like this: and "spend adjusted"... which I'm not sure what that is. ... text deleted for brevity... Please post YTD returns using those calculations.

This seems reasonable to me. Also, someone was nice enough to collect and post a 2018 year-end chart of members’ performance last year by their asset allocation, which was interesting.

If you have a specific benchmark you use for your portfolio, that’s good to include.

[ADDED] My YTD retirement portfolio performance through May was 10.49% vs benchmark VTHRX (Vanguard 2030 target date) which was 8.01%.

Asset allocation follows VTHRX, currently 69/31.

[Clone]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski We have had a defined way of calculating investment performance that we have gone over many times... it is XIRR with the 12/31/2018 beginning value, additions and withdrawals on the dates they occur and ending value as if it were 12/31/2019

Thank you so much for posting this. I had read through every post trying to see if it was defined someplace, and was not able to find a definitive answer. Even scanning moneychimp was not very helpful. I remember trying to use moneychimp last year sometime, and it was a struggle.

Excel is the champ! Took a bit to figure out the syntax to get the plusses and minusses correct, but it feels better than trying to adjust gains or basis depending on contributions or withdrawals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clone 11.3% ytd spend & contribution adjusted (was 15.3% ytd last month) was 90/10, now 55/45 (eff 5/23)

Put everything into excel and crunched the numbers. XIRR end of May was 12.0%, compared to 17.4% for end of April.

[calmloki]

Stocks and such are worth $47k less now than on April 29, but our net worth is down only 25k. Not bad.

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I keep seeing posts like this: and "spend adjusted"... which I'm not sure what that is. Please post YTD returns using those calculations.

From post #266 earlier:

Quote:

Originally Posted by marko 8.36% YTD. 3% after annual W/D adjusted

Ok now?

[sengsational]

I can't say what others mean by "spend adjusted", but when I say it, it means I'm reporting a money-chimp style calculation.

Inputs to my spreadsheet calculation include:

• 12/31 value of all accounts,
• current date value of all accounts
• day number of the year / 365 * annual expected spend
• day number of the year / 365 * annual expected non-portfolio income

Where "day number of the year" is how many days have passed since 12/31.


And "non-portfolio income" was added to my calculation this year because DW started her SS

Doing it with all accounts means there's nowhere to hide, and it's simple. It's not as good as XIRR, but I've troubled through the XIRR calculation on occasion, and was close, but obviously spending tends to be "lumpy", so not perfect. But the magnitude of the lumpiness vs magnitude of the market swings means the accuracy is sufficient. Besides, this thread is about keeping me motivated and having a bit of fun.

[pb4uski]

FWIW, The forumla below replicates the moneychimp calculator:

=AVERAGE(RATE(Period in years,-Additions+Dividends+Withdrawals,-Starting balance,Ending balance,1),RATE(Period in years,-Additions+Dividends+Withdrawals,-Starting balance,Ending balance,0))

The above presume that additions, dividends and withdrawals all happen ratably throughout the year.... mine are fairly ratable.. for both 2018 and 2017 the above was within 0.01% of my XIRR return.

[KCGeezer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by sengsational I can't say what others mean by "spend adjusted", but when I say it, it means I'm reporting a money-chimp style calculation. ... Doing it with all accounts means there's nowhere to hide, and it's simple.

My intent and process as well.

[target2019]

Spend-adjusted seemed obvious to me. Perhaps I will add a line to my own report about money chip performance (MCP).

All of the reported performance numbers are good, unless you find an error in your logic. As has been mentioned, there is more than one way to calculate performance, of course. It's all good in this thread.

[Golden sunsets]

XIRR 6.69%. Quite a drop from 4/30.

52/43/5

[Golden sunsets]

Just a further qualifier on the definition. It is PRR, which is XIRR prorated for less than a year. My XIRR is 16.95%, but of course that is not my actual return. Based on 5 months it is 6.69%, so using the term XIRR, is a bit of a misnomer.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golden sunsets Just a further qualifier on the definition. It is PRR, which is XIRR prorated for less than a year. My XIRR is 16.95%, but of course that is not my actual return. Based on 5 months it is 6.69%, so using the term XIRR, is a bit of a misnomer.

If one uses a start date of 12/31/2018 and end date of 12/31/2019, then XIRR does the right thing. Also try 1/1/2019 to 12/31/2019. Do not do 1/1/2019 to 5/31/2019.

If one is using Quicken or MSMoney, then one has to put the end date of 12/31/2019 as well.

[LOL!]

YTD (May 31 2019) returns for a collection of 'close-to' 60/40 funds (from Morningstar.com and Vanguard.com):

7.54% VSMGX Vg LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (60/40)
8.59% VBIAX Vg Balanced Index (60/40), no foreign
6.66% DGSIX DFA Global 60/40 I, small-cap & value tilted
7.64% VTTVX Vg Target Retirement 2025 (62/38)

7.09% VTWNX Vg Target Retirement 2020 (53/47)*
8.17% VWENX Vg Wellington (67/33)*

Some others
01.03% VMMXX Vg Prime Money Market
04.89% VBTLX Vg Total US Bond Index
03.74% VSCSX Vg Short-term corporate bond index
10.95% VTSAX Vg Total US Stock Market
07.04% VTIAX Vg Total Int'l Stock Market
17.30% VGSLX Vg REIT Index
08.29% VSIAX Vg Small Cap Value Index
12.41% MTUM IShares USA Momentum Factor ETF

*These 2 funds VTWNX and VWENX are outliers because they are not that close to a 60/40 asset allocation this year.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! ... If one is using Quicken or MSMoney, then one has to put the end date of 12/31/2019 as well.

Just like one uses 12 months elapsed in the moneychimp calculator even though only 5 months has elapsed.... since we are looking for YTD return rahter than annualized return.

[SumDay]

Money Chimp (using 12 months) says 6.97% with 50/40/10. May sure didn't feel like 6.97%. Here's hoping June brings more warm fuzzies.

[audreyh1]

Since I only withdraw on the first of the year, it makes my retirement investments YTD return calculation easy.

[Golden sunsets]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! If one uses a start date of 12/31/2018 and end date of 12/31/2019, then XIRR does the right thing. Also try 1/1/2019 to 12/31/2019. Do not do 1/1/2019 to 5/31/2019. If one is using Quicken or MSMoney, then one has to put the end date of 12/31/2019 as well.

Got it. Like magic. I was adding an extra unnecessary step. Thanks.

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Since I only withdraw on the first of the year, it makes my retirement investments YTD return calculation easy.

My withdrawals are spread out over the year but my calculations only compare the start of each year's balance to the start of another year's balance. Somewhere in there are gains/losses and withdrawals; close enough for me.

BUT! I suppose I'm doing something wrong with my formula as it conflicts with moneychimp:

In Excel, I use:
end date value minus start date value/start date value/years.

If I use 1000 in '06 and end with 2000 in '19 I get 7.7%
(2000-1000/1000=1 / 13 years = 7.7)

If I use moneychimp (156 months vs 13 years) I get 5.8%

Trying to understand that but, yes I know....I'm a math lightweight.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by marko My withdrawals are spread out over the year but my calculations only compare the start of each year's balance to the start of another year's balance. Somewhere in there are gains/losses and withdrawals; close enough for me. BUT! I suppose I'm doing something wrong with my formula as it conflicts with moneychimp: In Excel, I use: end date value minus start date value/start date value/years. If I use 1000 in '06 and end with 2000 in '19 I get 7.7% (2000-1000/1000=1 / 13 years = 7.7) If I use moneychimp (156 months vs 13 years) I get 5.8% Trying to understand that but, yes I know....I'm a math lightweight.

Your 7.7% rate is simple interest... 5.48% is compound interest.

Moneychimp is right... 5.48% (not 5.8%... typo I assume). Proof is that 1000*(1+5.48%)^13 = 2000

In Excel, type in =RATE(13, ,-1000,2000) and you'll get 5.48%

Simple interest fails to take compounding into account.

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski Your 7.7% rate is simple interest... 5.48% is compound interest. Moneychimp is right... 5.48% (not 5.8%... typo I assume). Proof is that 1000*(1+5.48%)^13 = 2000 In Excel, type in =RATE(13, ,-1000,2000) and you'll get 5.48% Simple interest fails to take compounding into account.

Once again...thanks.
But in determining portfolio performance is simple or compound growth/interest the way to look at it?