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Old 01-08-2020, 04:37 PM   #701
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
They are talking about how much BRK trailed the S&P.

I just computed a number of 11.09%, so it is closer to 11% than 12%. That is trailing the S&P by 20% in 2019. It's huge.

Ah, ok. Worst relative to the S&P. It read to me like it was the worst overall, as in all other years were better than 11%.
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Old 01-14-2020, 07:01 AM   #702
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BLS reported the CPI for all items less food and energy for 2019 was 2.3%.

With such a stellar market performance, hopefully everyone’s real return for the year is still up there!

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Old 01-14-2020, 09:00 AM   #703
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Expense lagged plan by 25% (I.e. 3% vs 4%)
Returns exceeded plan by over 100% ( 7% versus 15 %)
And our financial plan predicts we can live forever!

Now the focus is on managing through the inevitable downturn and stepping up divestments.
For the fun of it...Keith
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Old 01-14-2020, 10:19 AM   #704
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After inflation, my real return is still 25.3%, on a stock AA of less than 60% now. WR of last year was 1.5%. I have not a good year like this in a long time. But that is past. What is coming is more important and interesting.
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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Old 01-16-2020, 07:58 PM   #705
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Annualized my primary 401K growth rate the first 15 days in January and got 28.8%.

FIRE'ed 3 years, DW still working, not taking anything out of the portfolio so far....
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Old 01-18-2020, 02:58 PM   #706
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Just saw a headline on the Web proclaiming "2019 was Warren Buffett's worst year in a decade". 11% return in 2019, compared to the S&P of 31+%.

Hey, I have Berkshire Hathaway too. It used to be 5% of my porfolio, but was trimmed down to 2.5% in 2019. I have not paid much attention to it, just as I don't with my mutual funds.

Well, it's another position that held me back, else I would do even better than 27.62% that I had overall. It's OK. Its value will show when the market tumbles. I've got to have some contrarian stocks in the mix.
I've owned Berkshire since 2006, and since then it's returned nearly 300% versus the S&P return of 150%. It makes up nearly 15% of the equities portion of my portfolio. But its value-oriented approach lagged badly the growth-biased S&P 500 in 2019, trailing the index by nearly 18%. And that's *with* a sizable investment in Apple. And when you do a little digging, it's performance over the past decade is troubling; while it beat the S&P 500 in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018, it has underperformed the S&P in the past one, three, five, and ten-year time spans. I'm sure it's nearly $150 billion in cash is creating a significant drag on performance.

I'm guilty of considering Berkshire something of an S&P 500 index fund substitute in my portfolio - something that should outperform the index slightly in a down market due to its value orientation, and perhaps significantly outperform the index during a recovery due to its ability to deploy that enormous cash reserve to scoop up underpriced bargains in a major correction or recession. But recent history didn't really prove that out– it outperformed the index by about 5% in 2008, but slightly underperformed in 2009, and didn't beat the index again until 2012.

I'm still a big fan of Buffett and his approach to investing, but I'm wondering if perhaps it's no longer relative in this age of rapid change, technology growth, and passive index investing, not to mention the sheer size of Berkshire.
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Old 02-02-2020, 01:06 PM   #707
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Better late than never .......

FIDO indicates 401k up 19.5% at the end of last year.

Now that I am retired, completed an IRA rollover in January 2020 with NUA treatment and starting withdrawals, things will be more complex.

Its all good.
DW and I are 62/62. 100% equities 31 years. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension cashed out Dec 2022 before segmentation rates reduced balance - rolled to MM fund, max SS for DH and DW at FRA. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG for 3 years. Next few years will be IRA cash withdrawals or until Stock Market recovers. AA 33% stocks, 67% MM and T-Bills. Rising equity glidepath.
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