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Old 03-21-2020, 02:07 PM   #241
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(20.3) YTD

Other than low equity allocations, how are you folks with single digit loses YTD doing it? I was at about 56% equities (much in TSM) when the trouble started, so I would normally have expected my aggregate losses to be smaller than they are. But with my bond funds down (4%) to (11%) YTD, they've provided little ballast.

Fortunately, I'm in pretty good shape to just do nothing and ride it out at this point. Still, it's aggravating.

The Great Recession occurred in my 3rd and 4th year of retirement. Now this craziness in my 14th. A lot less time to benefit from recovery this time.
Not quite single digit 11.9 off the high, 10.15 YTD. I did it by market timing.
However it was market timing combined with a toss of logic. It seemed to become clear to me that the dramatic fall was virus driven a little before Feb 25. On Feb 25th I was sitting in front of the computer logged into Fidelity and just went nuts with the sell button dropping 30% of my stocks into cash.

My logic was that this was a problem that will likely get worse, almost zero chance it will get better in the short term (months). Just seemed to be the thing to do.
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:54 AM   #242
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Here is something scary. I have very good cash flow data for my retirement nestegg for 2016 to now... and having sold most equities to cash recently, I was curious as to how I did... from 12/31/2015 to Friday 3/20/2020 my average annual return was 3.82% using XIRR... however, if I back the end date up slightly to 12/31/2019 it was 9.03%. Now that is depressing.

So this disruption has caused my average annual return for ~4 years to decline dramatically.

I have less reliable cash flows for 2013 to 2015, but the results are broadly similar... 8.16% for 12/31/2012 through 12/31/2019 drops to 5.43% for 12/31/2012 to 3/20/2020.
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Old 03-22-2020, 05:56 AM   #243
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Here is something scary. I have very good cash flow data for my retirement nestegg for 2016 to now... and having sold most equities to cash recently, I was curious as to how I did... from 12/31/2015 to Friday 3/20/2020 my average annual return was 3.82% using XIRR... however, if I back the end date up slightly to 12/31/2019 it was 9.03%. Now that is depressing.

So this disruption has caused my average annual return for ~4 years to decline dramatically.

I have less reliable cash flows for 2013 to 2015, but the results are broadly similar... 8.16% for 12/31/2012 through 12/31/2019 drops to 5.43% for 12/31/2012 to 3/20/2020.
Itís just point in time math. Things can get worse.
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Old 03-22-2020, 06:13 AM   #244
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Given that I am mostly out of equities now they can't get much worse for me.
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Old 03-22-2020, 06:34 AM   #245
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Given that I am mostly out of equities now they can't get much worse for me.
What is your current equities%
I saw you were down ~20% a couple of days ago.
Have you abandoned the generic buy/hold concept for now?
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Old 03-22-2020, 06:47 AM   #246
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I'm down about 29% YTD, as of Friday's close. Off the Feb 19 peak, I'm down about 32%. It's definitely more comforting to look at the percentages, rather than the dollar amounts!
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2020 Investment Performance Thread
Old 03-22-2020, 07:04 AM   #247
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2020 Investment Performance Thread

One psychological trick is to compare your portfolio balance against what it was on 12/31/2018. 2019 was outsized in terms of performance and most people saw a big drop in Q4 2018.

For my retirement portfolio, itís still less than it was at the end of 2018, but the amount is a lot less frightening.

[ADDED] 2015 is the most recent year that my portfolio balance at year-end was less than its current balance (for whatever thatís worth)
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:08 AM   #248
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Here is a chart of one of my accounts (that I control), pretty self explanatory.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:11 AM   #249
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I just checked...I'm down about 9.7% from 12/31/18. And only down about 4.3% from the bottom of that little dip, which was 12/24/18.

Still, the last time my overall balance was this low was August 2017. But, like most things, time softens all wounds. Getting put back to the Summer of 17 isn't so bad. In contrast, at the bottom of the Great Recession, I calculated that I had lost every dollar of profit I had ever made!
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:33 AM   #250
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Down 9.68% YTD. Went 100% cash on Thursday. We will probably get back into the market at some point, but at age 61 with DW likely to lose her job, no pensions, just can't afford to watch our retirement decrease further. We'll be fine, even if we stayed all cash, but I worry about my kids future. Hopefully, everything will work out great and we'll all come back and revisit in 2030 and brag about how much money we made in the market after the Coronavirus scare.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:40 AM   #251
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Another buy and hold type that talked myself out of adjusting AA a month or so ago. Down 21% on 60/35/5.

We’re good but coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Same here with same AA. We'd be ok until it goes down 75% or so but at that point we're well into a Depression so everyone's screwed. The financial system will have collapsed and we'll have much more serious stuff to worry about, like whether we have enough guns and ammo.

Saw this coming from China a couple of months ago and considered getting out of equities, but almost all of ours is in taxable so liquidating to bonds would've incurred huge CGs. At this point we're just riding it out until we hit bottom, then rebalance, tax loss harvest etc.

We're nowhere near bottom.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:48 AM   #252
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Given that I am mostly out of equities now they can't get much worse for me.
You would think. We came into this year roughly 0/50/50, with DW and I discussing a move of a good deal of the cash into equity and bond funds. We didn't. At this moment, that seems like a brilliant move, but the bond funds are getting whacked harder than I ever imagined. I haven't looked this month, but I know we're down quite a bit this month and YTD.

For individuals such as my DW and I (especially her) who absolutely fear investing in the stock markets, the drop in bond funds has been unsettling, to say the least. With a WR of under 0.5%, we shouldn't worry too much, and it's a big reason why we felt we could jump back into the stock markets after being out of them for years.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:48 AM   #253
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I just checked...I'm down about 9.7% from 12/31/18. And only down about 4.3% from the bottom of that little dip, which was 12/24/18.

Still, the last time my overall balance was this low was August 2017. But, like most things, time softens all wounds. Getting put back to the Summer of 17 isn't so bad. In contrast, at the bottom of the Great Recession, I calculated that I had lost every dollar of profit I had ever made!
This is the way I look at it too. We are well above the amount when we decided to RE. Although, DH still consulting which is still providing income. At the time we RE, ~2014, I kept calculating worse case scenarios with that balance at the time. Staying the course, not selling.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:52 AM   #254
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You would think. We came into this year roughly 0/50/50, with DW and I discussing a move of a good deal of the cash into equity and bond funds. We didn't. At this moment, that seems like a brilliant move, but the bond funds are getting whacked harder than I ever imagined. I haven't looked this month, but I know we're down quite a bit this month and YTD.

For individuals such as my DW and I (especially her) who absolutely fear investing in the stock markets, the drop in bond funds has been unsettling, to say the least. With a WR of under 0.5%, we shouldn't worry too much, and it's a big reason why we felt we could jump back into the stock markets after being out of them for years.
Why not switch your current bond funds into Treasury bond funds, if you happen to believe there is further damage coming?
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Old 03-22-2020, 10:01 AM   #255
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Rules are rules. No peeking til March 32nd.
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Like seeing a bad accident... you tell yourself "Don't look." but you do...
But I didn't look, and haven't looked. I'm waiting for 3/32/2020.

Today was the first day I've read this thread since February close, so I consider that "sneaking a peek", though, because there are a few regulars here that consistently report nearly identical results as me.
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Old 03-22-2020, 10:03 AM   #256
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But I didn't look, and haven't looked. I'm waiting for 3/32/2020.
That's what I would call "remarkable restraint".
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Old 03-22-2020, 10:07 AM   #257
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That's what I would call "remarkable restraint".
Especially since that day will never come....
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Old 03-22-2020, 10:40 AM   #258
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I got a nice notice from personal capital that I'm down 5% this week vs S&P -15%. I guess I could interpret that my overall beta is .33 (at least for this week) when the market is crashing.
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Old 03-22-2020, 12:46 PM   #259
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-15.5% YTD today.

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Old 03-23-2020, 06:31 AM   #260
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down -28.8% as of Fridays close. Still slightly ahead of Dec. 2018 low point.
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