Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-01-2020, 08:01 AM   #281
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 970
-11.43% YDT, 50/50 AA. Up from -16% YTD 2 weeks ago. Wobbly, but headed in the right direction.

So far.
__________________
Well of course it is my opinion, why would I express someone else's??
doneat54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-01-2020, 08:24 AM   #282
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 8,380
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
February 2020

-4.36% Total Portfolio Value YTD Change (50/45/5 target)

-3.93% American Funds American Balanced (50/50) Class R-6 RLBGX

+3.87% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral VBTLX
-8.23% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral VTSAX

-1.19% Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Admiral VWIAX
-4.98% Vanguard Wellington Fund Admiral VWENX

Cousins Wellesley and Wellington both are negative for the year, no doubt hiding from the market ills of the last week of February 2020.

The week was timed by nefarious forces to persuade me that money is greater than time. But I followed my plan and made the final walk to minicorp parking lot.
March 2020

-12.54% Total Portfolio Value YTD Change (50/45/5 target)

-11.58% American Funds American Balanced (50/50) Class R-6 RLBGX

+3.27% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral VBTLX
-20.87% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral VTSAX

-7.41% Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Admiral VWIAX
-13.79% Vanguard Wellington Fund Admiral VWENX

The weather outside is Sunny with Clouds. Strong winds today after a week of rain.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 08:42 AM   #283
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Golden sunsets's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 2,394
YTD 3/31 Down 11.59%

Didn't really want to look. I've been avoiding it. If I look at the percentage only and not the dollars, it's not as bad as I feared.
__________________
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
Pasteur
Golden sunsets is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 08:51 AM   #284
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Land of Florida Man
Posts: 37,369
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
-6.4% YTD 1Q. AA was 32/42/26 BC (before coronavirus). Currently 30/43/27 with ongoing rebalancing courtesy the management folks at Wellesley and Wellington.
Pretty good, considering the circumstances.

Weíre down 8.4% so far.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 09:09 AM   #285
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 953
Down 5.5%. Started the year at 99% equities, dropped to 16% equities, now at 56%.
__________________
Well it's all right, we're heading to the end of the line...
Clone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 10:59 AM   #286
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 6,977
Ballpark -16% for 1Q20. Too lazy to perform a detailed calculation. Let my AA drift from 70/30 target through rebalance bands and even moved 2 yrs expenses out of equities so AA is now 55/15/30. Portfolio is down by enough to buy a house and Iím not freakin out? Or maybe numb? Or maybe just donít matter since Dow is -4% right now.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 11:02 AM   #287
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,592
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
NW down 6.8% YTD. 64/36
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 11:08 AM   #288
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
My 2020 YTD investments are approximately +14%. I reallocated my 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries in 2019 after the yield curve inverted. To understand the basis for my decision, here is the total performance of VUSUX LT treasuries:

2007 +9.8% Beginning of the last severe Bear market
2008 +24% Bear market (treasuries rises during a bear market)
2009 -12.9% End Bear Market
2019 +14.8% Yield Curve inverted
2020 YTD +14% Bear Market

I was fully aware of the 2007, 2008, 2009 numbers. Note that in 2009 was a -12.9% return because of a "flight from quality" when investors started pulling money from treasuries and back into equities. Here is a link that explains flight to quality and flight from quality:

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...quality-416873

Why did treasuries did so well in 2019 when interest rates are so low? Answer: There are two components for the total return of a treasury bond fund: Price plus interest rates. Even if you get 0% on the interest rates, you can still get a high price return if there is a demand for the treasuries.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019, I understood that the yields are declining for long term treasuries. When the yields are declining, that means the prices are rising because "yield and price move in opposite direction". This is why I reallocated my entire 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries bonds because there was little risk of interest rates rising and there is little risk of a flight from quality...so I went "all in".

I am now slowing buying equities at depressed prices. I expect to be +30% after the market fully recover. This is how you can make money during a bear market using treasuries.
2177V is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 04:07 PM   #289
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 3,492
Jan +1.12%
Feb -6.18% due to COVID-19 fear
Mar -18.25% COVID-19 triggers 3 circuit breakers and 2TT+ in stimulus. This time IS different.
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 04:09 PM   #290
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 3,492
Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177 View Post
My 2020 YTD investments are approximately +14%. I reallocated my 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries in 2019 after the yield curve inverted. To understand the basis for my decision, here is the total performance of VUSUX LT treasuries:

2007 +9.8% Beginning of the last severe Bear market
2008 +24% Bear market (treasuries rises during a bear market)
2009 -12.9% End Bear Market
2019 +14.8% Yield Curve inverted
2020 YTD +14% Bear Market

I was fully aware of the 2007, 2008, 2009 numbers. Note that in 2009 was a -12.9% return because of a "flight from quality" when investors started pulling money from treasuries and back into equities. Here is a link that explains flight to quality and flight from quality:

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...quality-416873

Why did treasuries did so well in 2019 when interest rates are so low? Answer: There are two components for the total return of a treasury bond fund: Price plus interest rates. Even if you get 0% on the interest rates, you can still get a high price return if there is a demand for the treasuries.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019, I understood that the yields are declining for long term treasuries. When the yields are declining, that means the prices are rising because "yield and price move in opposite direction". This is why I reallocated my entire 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries bonds because there was little risk of interest rates rising and there is little risk of a flight from quality...so I went "all in".

I am now slowing buying equities at depressed prices. I expect to be +30% after the market fully recover. This is how you can make money during a bear market using treasuries.
Interesting, impeccable market timing. But did you know the cause would be a global pandemic?
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 08:23 PM   #291
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest View Post
Interesting, impeccable market timing. But did you know the cause would be a global pandemic?

I did not know. Neither did anyone else. People should study stock market crashes...

2007 crash: Nobody knew about Lehman Brothers and the mortgage derivatives
2000 crash: Nobody knew about the dot com bubble.
1987 crash: Nobody knew about the computer stock market programs that would trigger the Black Monday crash
1929 crash: Nobody knew about the huge speculation by people borrowing money to invest in the stock market. (heavy borrowers actually jumped out the window)

In most cases, there was a huge bull market prior to the crash which everybody were making money. I simply did not believe a bull market would last forever and the Corona Virus was simply the pin that popped the bubble. If you really believed that the record bull market was going to last forever, then you should have been investing aggressively prior to 2007, 2000, 1987 and 1929.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019. that was the time for me to walk away. Like Kenny Roger's song: You have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them and know when to walk away. I walked away when the stock market was making record highs and the duration of the bull market was also making records. Most successful gamblers walk away from the table because they are smart enough to quit while they are ahead.

In 2030 or so, after this bear market and the subsequent bull market, will people still remain aggressively invested after the bull markets breaks records in market highs? Even after the yield curve inverts? Generally when the yield curve inverts, some investors are buying treasuries to protect themselves. This is because treasuries are the only asset class that rises in value during a bear market. Here is a link that explains this.

https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-h...-market-crash/
2177V is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 04:10 AM   #292
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3,945
Mar 31 was exactly 3 yrs of RE for me. I noticed that as of that date, having sold ~$400K of equities over the 3 yrs for spending, rebalancing, and about 3 points of AA reduction, I was still ahead of my NW from 3 yrs ago. That did not seem too bad.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 04:26 AM   #293
Full time employment: Posting here.
atmsmshr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 627
Up slightly compared with 1 January balance for retirement funds, and that includes taking out 6 months of cash this year transferred to credit union
__________________
DW and I are 59/59. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA or 70. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG next few years. AA 40% stocks, 7% cash and 53% Intermediate Treasury fund. Rising equity glidepath.
atmsmshr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 04:39 AM   #294
Full time employment: Posting here.
atmsmshr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freedom56 View Post
In my opinion, equities are still overpriced. There are about 30 stocks that most funds are crowding into that are over-weighting the indices. A large portion of the S&P 500 will be totally wiped out. Over the next few months you will see many companies announcing reverse stock splits to avoid de-listing. When that happens, the short sellers start pounding those stocks down to zero.
My concern also. New month means new cycle of bills coming due. IMHO some rents, mortgages, auto loans will not be paid. Landlords and businesses slip on mortgage payments. Squeeze on small banks, and potentially some credit unions. More layoffs as mid sized companies burn out their cash reserves. Moody's and S&P ratings agencies downgrade credit from AAA to junk.

Hang on - its going to be a dramatic quarter.

PS - Dearly hope I am wrong.
__________________
DW and I are 59/59. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA or 70. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG next few years. AA 40% stocks, 7% cash and 53% Intermediate Treasury fund. Rising equity glidepath.
atmsmshr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 10:14 AM   #295
Recycles dryer sheets
Eucerin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 190
As of yesterday market closing, we are down 10%. AA: 45/55
Eucerin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 10:29 AM   #296
Moderator
MBAustin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 7,467
Down 13.6%. AA was 55/45, now very close to 50/50 as I have not rebalanced (although Wellesley and Wellington have done some of that for us).
__________________
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute." William Feather
----------------------------------
ER'd Oct. 2010 at 53. Life is good.
MBAustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 11:21 AM   #297
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,027
Quote:
Originally Posted by MBAustin View Post
...I have not rebalanced (although Wellesley and Wellington have done some of that for us).
Most definitely.

Having a the majority of our portfolio invested in Wellesley and Wellington has relieved me almost entirely of the burden of rebalancing. I would almost certainly be agonizing over the decision of when and how much, not to mention fighting the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome. As it is I've done nothing and our AA has varied less than two percentage points.
__________________
Numbers is hard

The key to understanding human behavior is realizing half the population is below average.
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 10:23 AM   #298
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 34
Per TSP:

Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 03/31/2020 is -8.89%.

I have now reallocated to 90% G Fund, 10% C Fund and won't change until I see majority of countries exhibit flattening CoVID-19 growth curves.

Currently, China is not honest with their CoVID-19 numbers as people suspected and I believe this pandemic will be the straw on the camel's back and break their large shadow banking economy.
airforce1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 03:09 PM   #299
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 4,941
-12.63% with almost 60% equity (well, now it's about 58% equity)
tmm99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 10:50 AM   #300
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 963
You mean equities?
Perryinva is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
2018 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 976 01-13-2019 09:30 AM
2017 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 706 01-09-2018 12:26 AM
2016 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 864 02-01-2017 09:45 AM
2015 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 689 01-21-2016 07:28 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:05 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.