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Old 04-09-2020, 04:26 PM   #301
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Just broke above my previous high today by $3k.
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:36 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Ugh turned to ugly... -18.96% through March 31.
Whoa, I thought you bailed early enough to beat the big downturn. Sorry to hear.

FWIW, I haven't been to this thread for a while. We are down less than 10% for the year, but I guess it depends on what day you pull the numbers.

On the upside, keeping some perspective, we are still up 17% from retirement Dec 2015, after spending.
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Old 04-09-2020, 05:57 PM   #303
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Most definitely.



Having a the majority of our portfolio invested in Wellesley and Wellington has relieved me almost entirely of the burden of rebalancing. I would almost certainly be agonizing over the decision of when and how much, not to mention fighting the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome. As it is I've done nothing and our AA has varied less than two percentage points.


Big +1 for having people and computers auto-rebalance for you. We were 50/50 on January 1, 50/50 at the peak, 50/50 at the trough and are down just 7.6% for the year to date. I have not lifted a pinky.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:00 PM   #304
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I am back to my “wishful” target number and I have more cash then when I started. We’ll see what happens from here.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:32 PM   #305
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Down 20% YTD as of 3-31-20
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:09 PM   #306
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I am back to my “wishful” target number and I have more cash then when I started. We’ll see what happens from here.
I'm back to my wishful number as well. Although still down.

My thoughts (prediction); the stimulus ignited today's semi-rally. I am expecting the other foot to fall as the masses digest how damaged the economy is following the past few weeks and, more so, the next few months.

Which is why I took today's profits and moved back to cash. We'll see if my prediction is right or wrong. I don't know if it'll be Monday or even next week, but I expect a size 13 shoe to come crashing down soon.

Think about it, what would continue to drive this economy over the next few months or more? ......I'd suggest nothing but bad news.

Hope I am wrong. Staying out.
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2020 Investment Performance Thread
Old 04-09-2020, 08:43 PM   #307
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2020 Investment Performance Thread

I have no crystal ball and your size 13 shoe concern seems justified. It’s also a fact that today is 100 days into 2020, my domestic bond index is at record high prices, my domestic stock index NAV is what it was on June 9th, and the overall 50/50 portfolio is down -7.6% for the year. Window ledges have no appeal to me.

Said differently, I don’t expect 2020 to be a great year for stocks (nor was 2018) and might be awful. But 2020 might be another great year for bond fund total returns. Why would I miss out on half of my portfolio enjoying a boomlet by moving to 100% cash? We pays our money and takes our choice, so good luck to you and to me.

-7.6% at the end of Q1 seems relatively tame so far, given the devastation and where I thought it would be. I am even more curious to see on 12/31 how the portfolio fared, so that I can then do nothing again and get excited to see how it does one year after that.
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Old 04-10-2020, 06:47 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by Perryinva View Post
Just broke above my previous high today by $3k.
Congrats to you. We are still down 19.22% from our all time high as of 4-10-20
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:58 AM   #309
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Thanks! Though down only 20% from the all time high, is quite good if you were up say 15-20%. The bond recovery coupled with some equities profit taking on Thursday after buying on the down stroke has me at 30/20/50. I also expect another drop so hedging a little. Not even near perfect timing (got in in stages but too soon really), I am far from any kind of really good investor, so it is great when a plan actually works. Since I have more than adequate fixed incomes for all expenses, I can be less conservative than I would be with the $1M in Fido at this time. I was only up about 4% YTD at the peak on 2/19, unlike many here that were 20% or better up. Time will tell if I am all wet.
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Old 04-10-2020, 03:03 PM   #310
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Said differently, I don’t expect 2020 to be a great year for stocks (nor was 2018) and might be awful. But 2020 might be another great year for bond fund total returns. Why would I miss out on half of my portfolio enjoying a boomlet by moving to 100% cash? We pays our money and takes our choice, so good luck to you and to me.
Umm .. may be you should shift all your stock allocation to bond?
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Old 04-10-2020, 03:31 PM   #311
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End of February: down 2.3%

End of March: down 10.5%

Currently: down 4.9%

So it goes up and it goes down. It doesn't do me any harm so I don't worry about it.
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Old 04-11-2020, 11:07 AM   #312
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Now up 4.2% YTD with all the bond buying and preferred stock trades since mid March. The announcement of government corporate bond buying has led to short covering of bond ETFs and has boosted my holdings. I am now 30% cash and 70% corporate bonds and CDs. I plan to increase my cash position to 40% by dumping lower coupon (less than 4.25%) investment grade notes with durations greater than 4 years. I'll wait once again for another sell-off to pick up short term corporate notes (1-4 years) well below par. It's not a matter of if, but when. With all the federal intervention, the market is becoming disconnected from reality. If you want to know what happens in the longer term when that intervention stops, take a look at Boeing. A year ago it was being propped up by institutional buying and was hovering around $380 despite the poor fundamentals and terrible headlines. Today It's trading around $150 and has more downside risk than upside potential and no dividend support. A lot of the recent rally was due to short covering and led by stocks that have dropped 80 to 98% from their all time highs. Right now stocks like Facebook are valued almost as much as the entire S&P 500 energy sector. How long will it be before the market realizes that with businesses shuttering, the ad revenues from Facebook will be in decline and bubbles like Facebook pops.
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:32 PM   #313
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Just did my mid-month balance pull. Down -7.77% YTD. Seemed to have bottomed 3/19 at a bit over -16%. Hope the steady climbout continues....
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:25 PM   #314
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Jan +1.12%
Feb -6.18% due to COVID-19 fear
Mar -18.25% COVID-19 triggers 3 circuit breakers and 2TT+ in stimulus. This time IS different.
Apr -6.10% Back to Feb levels. Wasn't as fortunate as Lord Ackman and his 2.6BB short. The world has changed.
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Old 05-01-2020, 12:39 AM   #315
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Currently down about 6% which is OKish. I do think it will end up going down again though although it might go up for a while.
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Old 05-01-2020, 05:08 AM   #316
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Here's my latest numbers...

+0.23% as of 1/31/2020.
-6.78% as of 2/28/2020.
-21.45% as of 3/31/2020.
-13.31% as of 4/30/2020.

As for highs and lows of the year, I peaked at 4.67% on February 19, and bottomed out at -30.47% on March 23.
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Old 05-01-2020, 06:18 AM   #317
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Old 05-01-2020, 06:20 AM   #318
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-2.18% as of April 30, 2020. 50/50 asset allocation.
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Old 05-01-2020, 06:22 AM   #319
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Is it wrong for me to hope for a down year so I can buy more shares at a discount?
Yikes. Probably not in the way you were hoping for.
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:08 AM   #320
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Overall YTD -6.1%. Drilling deeper our IRA's, which represent about 44% of our assets are only down a hair over 1% owing largely to bias toward intermediate term bonds (I keep a larger percentage of my income producing assets, in this case mostly bonds, in my tIRA for tax reasons--Roth's are 100% stocks). My taxable account on the other hand didn't fare that well...-10.5%, in there, International and small caps were the under performers. But, like a good strict allocation soldier, I stuck to my plan and re-balanced when I got outside 5% of my overall 60/40 AA. I also maintained my chosen equity breakdown i.e. buying more International than domestic in this recent equity draw-down.
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