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Old 06-20-2022, 01:26 PM   #421
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
The economy may not recover, but the market always leads.

It's the same as the market is already down 20% from the top, but the economy just started to slow.
You said you were hoping Wellesley would recover by years end, so that is what I was referring to.
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Old 06-20-2022, 02:52 PM   #422
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Originally Posted by VFK57 View Post
With current inflation, you will have losses with 2.8 - 4% income vs 8.6% inflation.
True. But she's waiting until more people post this emoticon before buying back in. She's losing less than market right now.

Market timing is not the same as hoarding cash forever.

I myself have lots of cash instead of bonds. Still love my stocks too much.
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Old 06-21-2022, 02:14 AM   #423
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Except that the market may go a lot lower before it returns to its historical return of 9-10%/year.
It’s been a very organized decline, no panic yet…once panic sets in then it will be near the bottom.
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Old 06-30-2022, 01:58 PM   #424
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A couple minutes before market close on the quarter....I don't think any of us will be pleased posting our YTD numbers. Ugh.
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Old 06-30-2022, 02:20 PM   #425
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Whoever loses less wins.
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Old 06-30-2022, 02:35 PM   #426
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Whoever loses less wins.
Is it not better to have won then lost, then to have never won before?
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Old 06-30-2022, 02:52 PM   #427
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Is it not better to have won then lost, then to have never won before?
As long as you don't lose it all.

^^^^
Just kidding, I have absolute surety that I will not go to zero. I'm a big market supporter, it got me to this point.
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Old 06-30-2022, 03:11 PM   #428
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Is it not better to have won then lost, then to have never won before?
I will defer the question to Cathie Wood.
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Old 06-30-2022, 04:19 PM   #429
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-23% YTD. 67/33 AA
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Old 06-30-2022, 04:51 PM   #430
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Jan 31, YTD -4.18%, stock AA 78.0%
Feb 28, YTD -3.22%, stock AA 73.8%.
Mar 31, YTD -0.18%, stock AA 74.7%
Apr 30, YTD -7.57%, stock AA 74.6%
May 31, YTD: -4.44%, stock AA 72.4%

Jun 30, YTD: -12.2%, stock AA 70.8%

June was a really bad month. It can only go up from here.
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Old 06-30-2022, 05:47 PM   #431
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As of 1-Jul-22 our Portfolio is down <-12.44%> from 1-Jan-22.

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Old 06-30-2022, 05:56 PM   #432
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Old 06-30-2022, 05:57 PM   #433
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Is it:

Buy on the dip?

Or catch a falling knife?
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:00 PM   #434
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Down 15.8% with 50/50 asset allocation, year to date. Not as much fun to watch this year.
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:05 PM   #435
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A quick check for the first half 2022 stats. 60/40 portfolio with some covered call selling that blunted the drop slightly. I also withdrew $25K for living expenses so far, that's included in the drop:

2022 YTD:-18.3%, -$570K from ATH . Damn, I "lost" $1/2 a mill. Well that sucks. I don't think I'll check it again until EOY.

If I wanted to look at it thru rose colored glasses, I am up still up 16.6% for the most recent 24 months and have $135K more than I did on retirement day 21 months ago.
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:21 PM   #436
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^^^ If you don't check, you will not know if you become eligible for the "Million Dollar Club": the club of posters who lost a 7-figure sum in a market downturn.

In the subprime fiasco of 2008-2009, several posters had that honor. With the bull market since then, posters have become more prosperous, and the club membership will be more widespread this time.
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:25 PM   #437
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Is it:

Buy on the dip?

Or catch a falling knife?

1) Buy on the dip: Right after you buy, the market goes up and you run a victory lap.

2) Catching a falling knife: You buy at 20% lower than the high, just to see it drops another 20%. You cry into your cheap beer, because that's all you can afford.

The two conditions are not mutually exclusive. First, 1) happens. Then a week later, 2) happens.
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:36 PM   #438
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Number 2 is always worst than #1.
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Old 06-30-2022, 06:46 PM   #439
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^^^ If you don't check, you will not know if you become eligible for the "Million Dollar Club": the club of posters who lost a 7-figure sum in a market downturn.

In the subprime fiasco of 2008-2009, several posters had that honor....
I was one of those. Less than 3/4 of the way now, but time will tell. Most of my money is in the Canadian TSX which has not lost what the S&P has.
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Old 06-30-2022, 07:21 PM   #440
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I was one of those. Less than 3/4 of the way now, but time will tell. Most of my money is in the Canadian TSX which has not lost what the S&P has.
Yes.

As often claimed, my "superior" memory registered many disparate random things, and your loss then was one of the things I remember.
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